All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:31) Joe Manchin calls out Biden on IRA flip-flop (7:40) Sacks writes GPT-4-powered blog post, OpenAI launches ChatGPT plugins (26:31) Will generative AI be more important than mobile and the internet itself? Making the case for both Google and OpenAI to win generative AI (50:19) Reaching and containing AGI, AI's impact on job destruction (1:16:35) RESTRICT Act's bait and switch Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-inflation-reduction-act-betrayal-joe-manchin-debt-ceiling-budget-fossil-fuels-green-energy-dc37738e https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-give-to-get-model-for-ai-startups https://sharegpt.com/c/jGKq34x https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-plugins https://www.theinformation.com/articles/alphabets-google-and-deepmind-pause-grudges-join-forces-to-chase-openai https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Noogler_Hat.jpg https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments https://twitter.com/peakcooper/status/1639716822680236032 https://www.reddit.com/r/blender/comments/121lhfq/i_lost_everything_that_made_me_love_my_job https://reason.com/2023/03/29/could-the-restrict-act-criminalize-the-use-of-vpns

(0:00) Bestie intro! (2:58) Fed hikes 25 bps (32:35) Balaji bets on Bitcoin $1M, predictions for hyperinflation, crypto crackdown in the US (54:27) Should the commercial real estate sector receive a similar treatment as regional banks? Math and solutions on 100% FDIC insurance (1:16:04) TikTok CEO grilled by US lawmakers: What is TikTok's endgame in the US? (1:25:46) Relativity Space shoutout and bestie wrap! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-raises-rates-but-nods-to-greater-uncertainty-after-banking-stress-6ae9316f https://twitter.com/scottrechler/status/1638534824808923136 https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-property-debt-creates-more-bank-worries-b36184ba https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1636928718173003776 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676 https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pinterest-terminate-SF-office-lease-88-Bluxome-15525421.php https://twitter.com/boazweinstein/status/1638964105917890561 https://twitter.com/mr_derivatives/status/1638772846326583296 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1638957986138959873 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1222921758375927808 https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3911036-how-to-escape-the-trap-of-the-clean-debt-ceiling-vote https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/coinbase-warned-by-sec-of-potential-securities-charges.html https://www.piratewires.com/p/2023-banking-crisis https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1448455115271143424 https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-6102-requiring-gold-coin-gold-bullion-and-gold-certificates-be-delivered https://twitter.com/markgags/status/802597908033966081 https://twitter.com/relativityspace/status/1638753739128315906

(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:35) Recapping the events of the past week (5:39) Understanding the banking crisis (32:55) Solving the global debt problem, righting the ship (54:20) VC market update: Founders Fund splits its eighth fund in two, Sequoia's reported returns, YC cuts its growth-stage team (1:08:36) Science corner: Superconductors (1:24:56) DeSantis update, Ukraine spending run rate, bestie wrap! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://www.wsj.com/articles/easy-loans-great-service-why-silicon-valley-loved-silicon-valley-bank-6b3f203e https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-chorus-yellen-treasury-fed-fdic-deposit-limit-dodd-frank-run-cc80761e https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/credit-suisse-got-its-lifeline-now-it-needs-to-win-back-clients https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/credit-suisse-top-shareholder-rules-out-more-assistance-to-bank-lf9gfhbr https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/16/world/france-pension-vote#france-pension-vote https://www.politico.eu/article/police-fire-dutch-farmer-protest-nitrogen-emission-cut https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-64968795 https://www.treasurydirect.gov https://www.axios.com/2023/03/03/founders-fund-slashes-vc-peter-thiel https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/stripe-50-billion https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-capital-venture-capital-returns-university-of-california-2023-3 https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiger-global-writes-down-venture-funds-bets-by-33-in-2022-3f9f6ade https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/13/y-combinator-cuts-nearly-20-of-staff-scales-back-growth-stage-investments https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1633570102326202368 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0 https://youtu.be/4lE8QWtrEvQ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/desantis-ukraine-pro-russia-position-gop-presidential-nomination/673392

(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:57) Overview of the SVB collapse and bank run (17:53) Who or what is to blame? Debating venture debt (37:11) Contagion risk, second- and third-order effects, government backstops (1:00:36) What does this mean for the VC industry? Silicon Valley panic cycle, advice for founders Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/altcap Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/r/Q1-2023-Investor-Letter.FINAL-030823.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/589201576/files/doc_downloads/2023/03/Q1-2023-Mid-Quarter-Update-vFINAL3-030823.pdf https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634260576431136768 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymo6Yzjv_KY https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/treasury-closely-watching-siliconvalley-bank-share-plunge https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-ukraine-treasury-secretary-kyiv-visit-volodymyr-zelenskyy https://twitter.com/Rippling/status/1634201986894577665 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-losses-push-silicon-valley-bank-parent-to-raise-capital-125e89d4 https://dfpi.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/337/2023/03/DFPI-Orders-Silicon-Valley-Bank-03102023.pdf?emrc=bedc09 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IAT:NYSEARCA

(0:00) Bestie intros! (6:47) The VC FOMO frenzy in AI (25:22) Current LP mindset, VCs leaving boards, startup cram downs and mark downs (37:23) Macro update: inflation not done, weaker earnings, interest rates (52:01) Marc Benioff channels his inner Elon Musk, the stock-based compensation boom (1:11:59) Fox News facing defamation lawsuit over false election fraud claims, TikTok ban heats up, competition with China (1:34:33) Ukraine update: China's peace proposal, US strategy (1:46:34) Harvard legacy admissions, Draymond Green on Black History Month (1:50:01) Stripe chart errata, bestie wrap! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/altcap Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-i-stood-up-to-disney-florida-woke-corporatism-seaworld-universal-esg-parents-choice-education-defa2506 https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-shares-definition-of-woke-during-jake-tapper-cnn-interview https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/28/investors-are-going-nuts-for-chatgpt-ish-artificial-intelligence https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/doug-leone-lessons-from-a-titan/id1154105909?i=1000602027979 https://openai.com/blog/introducing-chatgpt-and-whisper-apis https://twitter.com/heykahn/status/1628453782177865728 https://www.ft.com/content/21420ce2-92a1-43a0-a153-04ac7c872466 https://www.wsj.com/articles/instacart-sees-revenue-profit-boost-ahead-of-public-listing-1d7891d https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21023.jpeg https://www.barrons.com/articles/home-prices-dropping-redfin-fac43ede https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CRM:NYSE https://s23.q4cdn.com/574569502/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/CRM-Q4-FY23-Earnings-Press-Release-w-financials.pdf https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583622-salesforce-inc-crm-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript https://twitter.com/altcap/status/1631361678582611970 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/fas123r.asp https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-deposition-rupert-murdoch-says-fox-news-hosts-endorsed-false-2020-election-claims-c9348fc0 https://www.reuters.com/technology/tiktok-develop-parental-control-tool-block-certain-videos-2023-03-01 https://www.reuters.com/technology/white-house-gives-agencies-30-days-impose-federal-device-tiktok-ban-2023-02-27 https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-committee-lays-out-case-for-china-threat-ad62c611 https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/27/chinas-peace-plan-russia-says-no-conditions-for-peaceful-solution-or-ukraine-for-now https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188 https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1496886759665586177 https://twitter.com/deloreshandy/status/1629516350602264582 https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26316/w26316.pdf https://www.tmz.com/2023/03/01/draymond-green-calls-end-black-history-month-celebrate-all-year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-02/how-former-fugee-pras-michel-got-involved-in-1mdb-scandal-big-take https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/how-the-biggest-fraud-in-german-history-unravelled

(0:00) Bestie intro: Jason's Japan trip! (1:04) Stripe's precarious situation: Did it miss its window? Breaking down its $4B tax bill, slowing growth curve, enterprise vs SMB customers, scalability issues, and more (23:07) Lessons for founders: How ZIRP can skew CAC and LTV calculations, burn multiple (29:40) VC market update: ZIRP mistakes, VC as a "must-have" asset class for LPs, how the 2021 vintage can be saved (39:05) AI's outsized impact on SaaS and real-world businesses (55:16) Advice from Steve Jobs on customer-first product development, Section 230 update (1:00:29) Trump's savvy visit to East Palestine and 2024 strategy, Biden's visit to Ukraine, China's position (1:14:24) Tinfoil hat corner (1:23:25) Bestie wrap up! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-stripes-55-billion-pitch-to-investors https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-private-tech-company-that-let-employee-stock-grants-evaporate https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/11/zuckerberg-says-he-was-too-afraid-of-taking-facebook-public https://sacks.substack.com/p/enterprises-vs-smbs-whos-the-better-customer-for-b2b-saas-startups-9a0d4efe69e9 https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200 https://twitter.com/tylertringas/status/1627449217294958592 https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1628851245644644352 https://signalvnoise.com/posts/3497-you-know-one-of-the-things-that-really-hurt https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/02/not-like-the-nine-greatest-experts-on-the-internet-justices-seem-leery-of-broad-ruling-on-section-230 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/20/on-the-record-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-president-bidens-trip-to-ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/20/secrecy-security-biden-trip-to-kyiv https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-makes-surprise-visit-095627966.html https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1626984889449959430 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://openai.com/blog/how-should-ai-systems-behave

(0:00) Bestie intros, poker recap, charity shoutouts! (8:34) Toxic Ohio train derailment (25:30) Lina Khan's flawed strategy and rough past few weeks as FTC Chair; rewriting Section 230 (57:27) AI chatbot bias and problems: Bing Chat's strange answers, jailbreaking ChatGPT, and more DONATE: https://www.humanesociety.org/news/going-big-beagles https://www.beastphilanthropy.org/donate Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/10/mrbeasts-blindness-video-puts-systemic-ableism-on-display https://doomberg.substack.com/p/railroaded https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/14/norfolk-southerns-ohio-train-derailment-emblematic-rail-trends/11248956002 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-15/zantac-cancer-risk-data-was-kept-quiet-by-manufacturer-glaxo-for-40-years https://www.foxnews.com/video/6320573959112 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-im-resigning-from-the-ftc-commissioner-ftc-lina-khan-regulation-rule-violation-antitrust-339f115d https://fedsoc.org/commentary/fedsoc-blog/gonzalez-google-and-section-230-all-on-the-same-side https://www.investopedia.com/section-230-definition-5207317 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/14/norfolk-southerns-ohio-train-derailment-emblematic-rail-trends/11248956002 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1626097497109311495 https://chat.openai.com/chat https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1626091654120894464 https://politiquerepublic.substack.com/p/chatgpt-is-democrat-propoganda https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35902104 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-microsoft-chatgpt.html https://unusualwhales.com/news/openais-chatgpt-has-reportedly-predicted-that-the-stock-market-will-crash-on-march-15-2023 https://www.history.com/news/josef-stalin-great-purge-photo-retouching https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ec-funds-france-build-google-106934 https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/technology/21iht-quaero24.html

0:00 Bestie intro! 1:49 Report about US involvement in the destruction of Nordstream pipelines, breaking away from the military-industrial complex 28:26 Bestie refresh! 33:13 The AI Search Wars: Microsoft presses hard, Google's rough week 45:06 Sundar's next move: How should Google counterpunch? Google's troubled business model, will we see successful lawsuits over training data? 1:12:41 Will generative AI commodify enterprise SaaS? If so, what happens to VC returns? 1:31:14 Disappointing State of the Union, precarious situation between debt, taxes, and entitlements Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1623540190060101632 https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state-dept-vows-nord-stream-2-hunk-metal-bottom-ocean-russia-invades-ukraine https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-canadian-foreign-minister-melanie-joly-at-a-joint-press-availability https://twitter.com/EmiliaKaminska/status/1574817556950663169 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/biden-says-nord-stream-leak-was-deliberate-act-of-sabotage https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/nord-stream-probing-pressure-drop-at-second-russian-gas-link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyBNmecVtdU https://www.theverge.com/23589994/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-bing-chatgpt-google-search-ai https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-ai-chatbot-bard-offers-inaccurate-information-company-ad-2023-02-08 https://twitter.com/Google/status/1622710355775393793 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QinFy0RFDr8&t=450s https://neeva.com https://support.google.com/legal/answer/4558992?hl=en#:~:text=Courts%20typically%20focus%20on%20whether,merely%20copies%20from%20the%20original.&text=Using%20material%20from%20primarily%20factual,than%20using%20purely%20fictional%20works. https://twitter.com/arnaudai/status/1623359864100601861 https://github.com/features/copilot https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/6/23587393/ai-art-copyright-lawsuit-getty-images-stable-diffusion https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/8/23446821/microsoft-openai-github-copilot-class-action-lawsuit-aicopyright-violation-training-data https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1620447620987785216 https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/019/304/old.jpg https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1622832701131874306  

(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:15) Macro picture update: 0.25% raise, jobs rip up, wage growth continues to slow (17:52) Interest rates impact on mega-cap company creation (33:58) Mass extinction event coming to startups, reckoning for VCs, venture debt issues (1:02:33) Adani's potential fraud, role of short sellers Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/03/january-jobs-labor-market https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-approves-quarter-point-rate-hike-signals-more-increaseslikely-11675278190 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661 https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-cut-global-officer-director-workforce-by-at-least-10 https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23574322/zuckerberg-puts-metas-middle-managers-on-notice https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194 https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1620653106387386368 https://twitter.com/gradypb/status/1620937502248034304 https://www.axios.com/2023/02/01/david-cahn-leaves-coatue-for-sequoia-capital https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADANIENT:NSE?window=1Y https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/most-adani-stocks-drop-as-rebuttal-draws-hindenburg-response https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94313.pdf https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/03/wall-street-muddy-waters-activist-short-sellers-tesla-gamestop/672774

(0:00) David Sacks does bestie intros! (2:49) DOJ sues Google over ads business (23:09) EU probes Microsoft over Slack complaint based on "bundling" Teams (40:27) Pfizer CEO grilled at Davos, studies questioning vaccine effectiveness (1:12:14) Ukraine escalation: US to send tanks and warms to Crimea invasion, reconstruction costs, and more (1:22:39) Science Corner: Will we soon be able to reverse aging? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://thebulletin.org/2023/01/press-release-doomsday-clock-set-at-90-seconds-to-midnight https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/doomsday-clock-midnight.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sues-google-for-alleged-antitrust-violations-in-its-ad-tech-business-11674582792 https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/public-policy/doj-ad-tech-lawsuit-response https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/would-breaking-up-google-really-do https://thehustle.co/12232022-ad-spend https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/advertisers-sweet-tooth-fades-with-many-unfazed-by-googles-latest-cookie-removal-delay https://www.politico.eu/article/microsoft-european-union-antitrust-video-calls-software-giant https://twitter.com/rebelnewsonline/status/1615770518606561282 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31401-5 https://www.seacoastonline.com/story/opinion/columns/2022/01/29/kerr-covid-vaccines-anti-vaxxers-should-reject-hospital-beds-too/9246198002/ https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/12/05/marcus-lamb-death-covid-19-vaccines-rs-vpx.cnn https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9451592 https://twitter.com/jason/status/1478587551271161857 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1618381912413962240 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/ukraine-war-news-us-will-send-abrams-tanks.html https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-now-getting-western-tanks-looking-at-fighter-jets-next-2023-1 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11661589/PETER-HITCHENS-Sending-Ukraine-tanks-turn-Europe-one-big-radioactive-graveyard.html https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1618321900324950018 https://intellinews.com/ukraine-spiralling-towards-default-according-to-fitch-267768 https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-ukraine-russia-peace-sanctions-11674572583 https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01570-7#%20

(0:00) Bestie intro, who gets credit for the podcast? (6:27) Top candidates for the Republican nominee in 2024: DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley; major 2024 issues, balancing the budget (19:13) WEF in Davos: is it a grift? Somber mood, globalist mishaps, evaluating the US free trade policy (39:51) Rebuilding infrastructure while avoiding the debt ceiling, immigration reform (1:00:42) TikTok's endgame in the US: banned, spun out, or something else? (1:17:22) Pharma meets AI, best AI business models Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/RitchieTorres/status/1616124738752987152 https://twitter.com/TalbertSwan/status/1616101666582892547 https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-davos-mood-is-somber-as-many-ceos-question-economys-future-11673952415 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/17/davos-globalization-wef-economic-seige https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1614782758328598528 https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/10153920524981479 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/02/how-insects-positively-impact-climate-change https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dark-side-davos-revealed-global-elite-bookings-sex-workers-soar https://archive.wphna.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/04-03_The_National_Interest._Samuel_Huntington_Davos_Man.pdf https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/15/business/auburn-tiktok-ban-students.html https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-s-8-billion-bytedance-headache?rc=g3wfdp https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-tries-to-win-allies-in-the-u-s-with-more-transparency-11673836560 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/22/technology/byte-dance-tik-tok-internal-investigation.html https://www.ft.com/content/6670acad-8a5b-4c4a-b6a8-48dc307b6d4d https://www.hellopearl.com https://roboflow.com https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/brazils-americanas-shares-plunge-pre-market-accounting-inconsistencies-2023-01-12 https://www.wsj.com/articles/alec-baldwin-shooting-charges-involuntary-manslaughter-rust-movie-11674081157

(0:00) Bestie intro! (0:43) Reacting to Slate's article on All-In (11:18) SF business owner caught spraying homeless person on camera (29:22) Microsoft to invest $10B into OpenAI with unique terms, generative AI VC hype cycle (1:09:57) Biden's documents, America's over-classification problem (1:27:16) Best cabinet positions/ambassadorships   Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg   Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect   Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1613135006272045056 https://www.epsilontheory.com/gell-mann-amnesia https://slate.com/technology/2023/01/all-in-podcast-elon-musk-david-sacks-jason-calacanis-chamath-palihapitiya-david-friedberg.html https://newrepublic.com/article/168125/david-sacks-elon-musk-peter-thiel https://twitter.com/BettyKPIX/status/1613080547022229504 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/bankers-bet-millions-on-sovereign-debt-deals-tied-to-green-goals https://fortune.com/2023/01/11/structure-openai-investment-microsoft https://www.ft.com/content/6670acad-8a5b-4c4a-b6a8-48dc307b6d4d https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai https://ai.facebook.com/tools/pytorch https://fairuse.stanford.edu/overview/fair-use/four-factors https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEFANA  

(0:00) Bestie New Year catch-up! (2:44) Prediction 1: 2023's biggest political winner (17:25) Prediction 2: 2023's biggest political loser (21:57) Prediction 3: 2023's biggest business winner (30:34) Prediction 4: 2023's biggest business loser (42:03) Prediction 5: 2023's biggest business deal (52:41) Prediction 6: 2023's most contrarian belief (1:03:03) Prediction 7: 2023's best-performing asset (1:07:50) Prediction 8: 2023's worst-performing asset (1:14:46) Prediction 9: 2023's most anticipated trend (1:21:40) Prediction 10: 2023's most anticipated media (1:27:07) Breaking news: OpenAI reportedly in talks to sell existing shares at a ~$29B valuation Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-posts-record-revenues-for-hedge-fund-securities-operations-11672942665 https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-gathers-chinas-xi-with-arab-leaders-new-era-ties-2022-12-09/ https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/business/europe-natural-gas-prices.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/technology/salesforce-layoffs.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-lay-off-over-17-000-workers-more-than-first-planned-11672874304 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1598076726671642624 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/world/asia/xi-putin-china-russia.html https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1611052287954149377 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rebels-block-kevin-mccarthy-defiance-trump-rcna64280 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-creator-openai-is-in-talks-for-tender-offer-that-would-value-it-at-29-billion-11672949279

(0:00) Bestie catch up! (3:05) Kicking off the 2022 Bestie Awards (4:12) Biggest winner in politics (9:11) Biggest loser in politics (16:37) Biggest political surprise (23:35) Biggest winner in business (29:48) Biggest loser in business (42:21) Biggest business surprise (51:16) Best science breakthrough (57:36) Biggest flash in the pan (1:42:24) Best CEO (1:47:38) Best investor (1:51:21) Worst investor (1:52:22) Best turnaround (1:55:58) Worst human being (1:59:57) Most loathsome company (2:01:32) Best new tech (2:02:34) Best trend (2:05:09) Worst trend (2:07:50) Best new media (2:10:26) The Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Immolation! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://civil.ge/archives/469054 https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39946577/us-to-replace-javelin-stinger-missile-stockpiles-sent-to-ukraine https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp https://www.wsj.com/articles/bob-iger-bob-chapek-disney-coup-11671236928 https://twitter.com/TwitterBusiness/status/1605651865818914816 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-13/crispr-gene-editing-breakthrough-brings-cancer-cures-closer https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604871630613753856 https://www.amazon.com/San-Fransicko-Progressives-Ruin-Cities/dp/B08V3DV718 https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1491418120086454278 https://twitter.com/seanhannity https://youtu.be/HBiV1h7Dm5E https://www.amazon.com/Vital-Question-Evolution-Origins-Complex/dp/0393088812 https://www.amazon.com/Life-Ascending-Great-Inventions-Evolution/dp/0393065960 https://www.amazon.com/Putting-Rabbit-Hat-Brian-Cox/dp/1538707292 https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Cinema-Speculation/dp/B09V3FTWKY

(0:00) Jason's new gig! (1:05) Twitter's new privacy rules, notable suspension, doxing dynamics (20:48) Nuclear fusion breakthrough and geopolitical ramifications (42:58) Jason and Sacks's big night (51:11) State of the markets: Coupa acquired by Thoma Bravo, startups at all stages seeing heavy valuation reductions, what LPs are thinking (1:22:08) TV catch up, worst person in tech bracket Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/41483/checkoutcom-chalks-70-off-valuation https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1602457619431493634 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1603190155107794944 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility https://www.ft.com/content/4b6f0fab-66ef-4e33-adec-cfc345589dc7 https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsfusion-industry-survey-shows-significant-increase-in-private-investment-9860867 https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/thoma-bravo-buy-coupa-software-615-billion-2022-12-12 https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/41483/checkoutcom-chalks-70-off-valuation

(0:00) Bestie gut health! (2:17) Twitter Files Part 2: shadow banning and blacklisting entire accounts and topics; how content moderation was handled at other tech giants (33:09) Twitter Files Part 1: Suppressing the New York Post's Hunter Biden laptop story (47:30) China effectively ends Zero-Covid policies, Iran, China, and Japan demographics (58:27) Kevin O'Leary defends FTX on CNBC, was paid $15M as a spokesperson; Sinema flips to Independent Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-times-staffers-to-stage-first-strike-in-over-40-years-thursday-11670471199 https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1598822959866683394 https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1601007575633305600 https://twitter.com/c4chaos/status/1601048264262180864 https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1601020845224128512 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1601052241145696256 https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1601023504916172800 https://twitter.com/NewsPolitics/status/1601028254831620096 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/jack-dorsey-to-congress-full-written-testimony-on-political-bias.html https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601031111244599296 https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1601042622516035584 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1601042125130371072 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1601044058276655104 https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1598831435288563712 https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1600243405841666048 https://nypost.com/2022/12/03/twitter-files-reveal-james-baker-in-hunter-biden-laptop-scandal https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunter-biden-laptop-data-analysis https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/hunter-biden-story-russian-disinfo-430276 https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/08/china/china-zero-covid-relaxation-reaction-intl-hnk/index.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran#/media/File:Iran_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/japan-population-pyramid-2020.jpg https://www.wsj.com/articles/letter-from-top-apple-supplier-foxconn-prodded-china-to-ease-zero-covid-rules-11670504366 https://www.wsj.com/articles/sen-kyrsten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-11670587227

(0:00) Bestie hangover! (1:05) Analyzing SBF's media tour: his angle, media coverage, and more (21:09) FTX culpability: media, investors, regulators (53:41) Challenging media coverage of other countries, China's current situation, Xi Jinping's standing (1:10:04) What OpenAI's new ChatGPT tool means for the future (1:26:30) David Sacks on the slowdown in SaaS, use case endgame for generative AI Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMZckrBPw38 https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/11/30/ftxs-collapse-was-a-crime-not-an-accident https://www.wsj.com/articles/sequoia-capital-apologizes-to-limited-partners-for-ftx-investment-11669144914 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/opinion/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-fullenkamp.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bankruptcy.html https://twitter.com/lizrhoffman/status/1595193884438568960 https://taibbi.substack.com/p/be-it-resolved-dont-trust-mainstream https://www.newcomer.co/p/taking-kid-gloves-to-all-in-my-reflections https://chat.openai.com/chat https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598021488795586561 https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1598413401705021440 https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598021488795586561 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1598076726671642624 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1598363968547876864

0:00 Bestie intros! 2:19 Trump announces 2024 presidential bid 26:07 Each bestie names their most important policy issue for 2024 59:03 Big tech belt-tightening, activist investor calls out Google, professional-managerial class culture 1:17:23 SBF's leaked DMs, Elon's culture shift 1:38:22 Sacks's big chess victory, Friedberg's public company analysis, and more Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1592951330955759616 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1592970866312482816 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1593041589685063683 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/14/trump-motive-mar-a-lago-documents https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1592271468045684736 https://deadline.com/2022/11/donald-trump-2024-new-york-post-ivanka-trump-1235173748 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/17/23465169/amazon-layoffs-continuing-2023-ceo-andy-jassy https://www.tcifund.com/files/corporateengageement/alphabet/15th%20November%202022.pdf https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1593606745955348481 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1590110462347444224 https://twitter.com/g_shullenberger/status/1590069877288886274 https://compactmag.com/article/the-email-caste-s-last-stand https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1593448516394881024 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1593653573329436672 https://cointelegraph.com/news/sbf-received-1-billion-in-personal-loans-from-alameda-ftx-bankrupty-filing https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/FTXFILING.pdf https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1593141361582444544

(0:00) New bestie game show! (6:20) Election recap: Red wave falls flat, Republican party flips from Trump to DeSantis, a rebuke of extremism (20:47) Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins to break down the FTX collapse, further contagion risk, regulation, and more! (43:32) Red flags exhibited by Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX, lack of governance/diligence (1:06:00) Macroeconomic picture, lower than expected CPI print catalyzes market tear, advice for founders Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-11668176869 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/summers-says-ftx-meltdown-has-whiffs-of-enron-like-scandal https://fortune.com/2022/11/10/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-joe-biden-democratic-party-second-biggest-donor https://web.archive.org/web/20221109230422/https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1591062535586848768

(0:00) Jason's new brand deal (1:18) Bestie updates (9:12) "Ligma/Johnson" blunder outside of Twitter HQ (15:38) Surge of tech layoffs at Twitter, Stripe, Lyft, Opendoor, Chime and others; preparing for a longer downturn than originally anticipated (35:28) Macro trends, big tech freezes hiring, how founders can think about the last 3 years and the next 3 years (54:04) Midterm election preview, understanding the shift toward populism (1:17:32) Science corner: Understanding Meta's AlphaFold competitor Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1588538640401018880 https://twitter.com/yoyoel/status/1587230924554399744 https://twitter.com/dee_bosa/status/1587158734689767425 https://twitter.com/TechBroDrip/status/1586370087287521280 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586149451348910081 https://layoffs.fyi https://twitter.com/Post_Market/status/1577793695734284289 https://twitter.com/bullfightcap/status/1588311417052012544 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBkzm4a7iY4 https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C996374&symbol=COIN5259271 https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washington/susan-jones/622-labor-force-participation-declines-3rd-straight-month https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/employment-research/are-economists-underestimating-the-labor-force-participation-rate https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63471725 https://www.google.com/finance https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1554589241560010753 https://appleinsider.com/articles/22/11/02/apple-is-freezing-hiring-cutting-budgets-claims-new-report https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-midterm-elections/index.html https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/covid-response-forgiveness/671879 https://www.axios.com/2022/11/04/trump-presidential-run-2024-announcement https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://www.joshbarro.com/p/the-problem-with-pro-democracy-rhetoric https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M https://about.fb.com/news/2022/11/ai-protein-research-could-drive-progress-in-medicine-clean-energy