Beyond Markets

In this episode of the Week in Markets, equities research analyst Louis Chua explores how the equity and debt markets have reacted to the 90-day truce in the trade war between the US and China, and what are some of the lingering concerns to watch over the next 90 days. Overall, while the financial markets have reacted with relief, we believe that the US fiscal situation remains far from being solved, and we would take advantage of the current opportunity to add diversifying exposure outside the US. In the long term, an end to US exceptionalism and foreign investors’ asset allocation decisions to diversify away from the US can have a significant impact to equity and fixed income markets.

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed’s direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on 15 May.   In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.   This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away’ could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.

US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile,​​Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)

US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.00:31 Introduction01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?03:24 What is the expected timeline now?05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen16:23 Historic moves in bond markets18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season30:29 Oil prices under pressure31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year33:31 OutroWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House’s attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House’s attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.

As global markets reel from the fallout of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, gold is once again thrust into the spotlight. Despite a recent pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen by around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.

In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.   Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer. 

Like in the Star Wars movie “The Phantom Menace”, the taxation of trade routes is leading to turmoil, including market turmoil. Bond and oil prices suggest the economy is about to abruptly slow down, following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements. The hope is the rest of the world will quickly come and negotiate with Trump, and some are. But the largest bilateral trade relationship is between China and the United States. China has called his bluff, raising its tariff on US imports to 52%.Comparisons of indicators such as volatility ratios, deviations from averages and investor sentiment between today and previous flash crashes, all indicate high chances of the S&P 500 index being higher a year from now. But fundamentally, there’s no way to know what things will look like a year from now. We expect US valuations to compress and valuations to expand, as foreign savings fund domestic growth in Europe and China.

New tariffs will surely lead to a rise in inflation, as will the oil price, if Iran ignores Trump’s ultimatum to a new nuclear deal. With inflation expected to stay high, we look for only one rate cut this year, and think 2026 will be an easier year to cut rates. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is technically weak, having broken its March low. It is heavily weighted toward the champions of Artificial Intelligence that have driven the bull market of the past five years. The consensus forecast for 2025 S&P 500 index EPS growth that was over 13% in February, is below 10% today. But since World War 2, April has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P, and in the years when the S&P fell by 3% or more in March, April had an average gain of 6%.

The second inauguration of Donald Trump has resulted in something of an upheaval for equity markets. The imposition of tariffs, or the threat of them, has led to uncertainty and heightened volatility, prompting a rotation out of US megacap stocks and into European and other global equity markets. It’s not an easy time to pick stocks.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about his team’s approach to stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that may offer the best opportunities in the months ahead.00:31 – Introduction and background02:37 – The impact of tariffs03:25 – Our preferred Regions/Sectors05:20 – Our stock-picking process06:46 – Financials and Industrials09:36 – Information Technology10:32 – Stand-out subsectors14:00 – Balancing equity portfolios in the current environment15:43 - Conclusion16:20 – Legal disclaimerWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

This year, the S&P 500 index has been in what technical analysts call a “broadening formation” of wider swings, that signals increasing volatility and typically precedes large price moves. While the second Trump administration is less chaotic​​ than the first, it is overwhelming any opposition with a blitz of activity. The thinking is there is no time like the present, and it’s better to do the hard things first to get any economic slowdown they might cause out of the way, before mid-term elections are held in November next year. Meanwhile, the uncertainties Trump has created have ignited animal spirits in long-dormant and lazy economies, and by extension their stock markets.

The world is witnessing a rapid shift towards de-globalisation, accelerated in part by the new US administration. Meanwhile, ongoing disputes over tariffs, trade imbalances, and the widening US fiscal deficit continue to dominate global discussions.In this episode of Beyond Markets, Rishabh Saksena, Head of Investment Specialists Asia at Julius Baer, is joined by Vance Serchuk, Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute. They discuss the implications of these issues on the global economy, and examine which regions are well-positioned to thrive amid this increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.  

There has been a significant correction in US markets since mid-February, with the S&P index down around 8%, and the Nasdaq down around 12%. Surprisingly, this has come on the back of reasonably good earnings from the previous quarter and forward-looking guidance. This shift in investor sentiment appears to be driven by rising policy risks, and a decrease in the "Trump put" effect - the market's previous belief that government intervention would support asset prices.In this episode, Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia at Julius Baer, shares his expectations for markets, sectors we favour, and insights on the bond markets in this uncertain environment. 

Germany’s surprise €500bn infrastructure plan marks a historic break from fiscal restraint, shaking up markets and boosting European stocks.Meanwhile, US economic uncertainty under Trump is fueling recession fears, pushing Treasury yields down and challenging USD strength.We also break down Japan’s bond market surge and what it means for global investors.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

The initial read of the third session of China's 14th National People Congress has been generally in line with economist expectations. Concurrently, ongoing shifts in US policies, especially on tariffs, continue to disrupt the broader macro narrative. Surprisingly, Hong Kong stocks have rallied steadily amidst these developments, whilst US stocks have reacted much more negatively. What is our outlook for these markets, and what does it mean for the US dollar? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. This episode was recorded on 6 March, 2025.

An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China’s “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios? In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today. Key topics include:(01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets (04:32) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening? (06:16) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right? (08:22) - The US dollar’s strength and its implications for emerging markets (09:49) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets (12:12) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns (13:03) - The evolving role of CDS (13:40) - Lessons from past market drawdowns (14:38) - Common misconceptions about credit investing (16:25) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors