Economy Watch

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's economy is handling the US tariff-tax buffeting quite well.Financial market reactions to the US Fed rate cut yesterday, and the nature of its split decision, has seen the USD fall, bonds shift to a risk averse tone, and Wall Street retreat, although it has recovered to break-even in the past hour. The oil price has fallen as demand estimates in the US fade.Today, in a very big shift, there were 313,100 actual initial jobless claims last week in the US which is the largest weekly rise since early in 2020. There are now 1.965 mln people on these benefits, +2% more than at this time last year.We should also note that the US home ownership rate in Q3-2025 was 65.3%. A year ago it was 65.6%. (In New Zealand it is 66.0%.) Their rental vacancy rate is now 7.1%, up from 6.9% a year ago.US wholesale inventories are rising according to late-released September data, now up +4.8% from a year ago. But their inventory-to-sales ratio isn't anywhere near concerning levels yet.US exports rose marginally in September, largely driven by the export of gold which accounted for 70% of the monthly rise. Computer exports fell, and travel receipts by visitors also retreated notably. Meanwhile imports into the US were little-changed. The shift of gold out enabled them to record their lowest trade deficit since 2020.In Canada however, their export growth was much stronger, and also featuring gold. Their exports jumped +6.3%, while imports were down -4.1%. That turned a trade deficit of -C$6.4 bln in August to a small trade surplus of +C$153 mln surplus in September and ending the 2025 negative monthly outcomes. Canada's exports of aircraft, and energy products (oil and electricity) rose significantly in September.Across the Pacific, Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to +4.7% in Q4-2025, up from 3.8% in the prior quarter and the strongest reading this year. This was better than expected, underscoring continued resilience despite trade frictions, growth concerns and their mounting fiscal risks.China has signaled that 2026 economic support from Beijing will be more modest than many had thought it would be.Switzerland reviewed its interest rate overnight and left it at 0%. They have inflation at +0.2%.We can also note the Central Bank of Turkey cut its policy rate by -150 bps to 38% overnight, a fourth consecutive reduction, and by more than markets expected. They claim inflation is starting to ease, especially food inflation. Overall inflation is still running over 30% pa, although that is half the rate of a year ago.In Australia, their November labour market report showed employment fell -21,300 (s.a.) from October, an unexpected result, but remained +182,400 higher than a year ago. Full-time employment fell -56,500 but part-time employment rose +35,200. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. Underemployment rose to 6.2%.Container freight rates rose +2% last week from the prior week, largely on the back of rising rates from China to the EU. Rates from China to the US are falling as trade volumes ease. These container rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bild cargo rates are +111% higher than year-ago levels, after last week's -14.8% fall off the recent peak.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, and up +US$70 from yesterday and back near its peak. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$64/oz with another big move.American oil prices are down almost -US$1 at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,977 and down another -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have essentially been on hold overnight awaiting the US Fed's decision.In the end, the Fed's FOMC trimmed its key rate by -25 bps to 3.75% as markets had guessed it would do. But it was not unanimous. The Trump stooge on the committee wanted a far larger cut. But the professional members fear inflation still and the small trim was the uneasy compromise. The voting was 9 members to cut by -25 bps, two to hold unchanged, and Miran wanting a big cut.Immediately after, the UST 10yr benchmark was active with a softish tone but really little-changed. the S&P500 rose, and the USD fell slightly. More reaction will come after Chairman Powell's press conference which is about to start soon.Earlier, the report on US mortgage applications was quite positive, up 4.8% last week from the week before which you may recall brought a small but unexpected retreat. The latest week however was all about refinance applications which were up +15% on that same prior week basis.An Q3-2025 data for US payroll compensation costs (pay plus payroll taxes plus benefits) were up +3.5% from a year ago, rising at about that rate in the latest quarter too. So American inflation isn't getting any respite from this direction.Quite how odd the US public policy has become is revealed in a current court case. US Federal prosecutors spent over a year extraditing a Belarusian woman to the US to face charges she illegally smuggled US tech to Russia for its war on Ukraine. Then ICE stepped in accusing her of being in the country illegally, and deported her, collapsing the case. Moscow smirked in satisfaction.In Canada, their central bank stood pat, holding their policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected. The say this is about the right level in the current uncertain environment. But they were surprised by the upside growth of GDP at +2.6% in the third quarter, found the labour market improvement better than anticipated as their unemployment rate fell. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October and they see core inflation remaining in the 2.5% to 3% range.Across the Pacific in China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.And the IMF has raised its forecast for growth of the Chinese economy for 2025 and 2026, now expecting to see an expansion of +5.0% this year.And some influential analysts are saying the Chinese yuan is 25% undervalued and will appreciate more than forwards contracts are pricing for 2026.And in the EU, the ECB boss Christine Lagarde says they will likely raise their forecast for EU growth as well.In Australia, if you are retired and have assets, you need to pay a tax on a deemed rate of interest on your assets (irrespective of what they actually earn, if anything). That rate depends on how many assets you have. They raised it in September 2025 and have now signaled they will raise it again in March.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, dipping -0.1 bp from this time yesterday and holding that after the Fed decision.The price of gold will start today at US$4204/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$61/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just om US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie though we are again essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,274 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is awash in better economic news today in many of the world's largest economies.First, the overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.In the US there were some key labour market reports out today. First the weekly ADP private payrolls update for last week recorded a small +5000 gain which follows five consecutive weeks where they recorded more than a -27,000 loss of jobs (which was consistent with what they reported for the November month).And the catch-up JOLTS report for October showed little-change from September, but job openings were a little higher than anticipated for both months.And the widely watched SME sentiment survey from the NFIB was marginally better than expected, up slightly from October, but just back to the levels it has been at since May although that still leaves it at a slight net negative. Interestingly, the retail Redbook survey eased back a bit last week to the average rise it has recorded since later 2023, which mirrors retail inflation that is juiced by tariff-taxes. It is perhaps an indicator that the Thanksgiving seasonal retail was not as strong as hoped.There is more evidence that Trump is just plain dumb. After his failure to get the Chinese to buy US soybeans at scale, he is rolling out US$16 mln in taxpayer support for some farmers which will actually be very little for most. Now he is threatening swingeing tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports of potash, oblivious that even if that blocks cheap Canadian imports, it will leave high-priced local product, with a net loss for farmers, probably exceeding US$15 bln. Even a high school economics student can see the flaws in his approach, which embeds higher costs on Americans.Trump has also handed China a huge AI chip win, agreeing to let Nvidia sell its best stuff to China. This will allow China to close the gap on the US AI advantages much faster now. The US security community is gobsmacked. China may not buy a lot, but it doers give them access to the technology.In Japan, machine tool orders were strong in November, up +14.2% from a year ago continuing expanded growth over the past seven months. But domestic demand actually fell. It was foreign orders that were the star here, up by +23%.Next week, there will be an important central bank meeting in Tokyo. Overnight remarks by the Bank of Japan governor seemed to set the groundworks for another rate rise on the basis that inflation is embedding, especially wage inflation, and that the risks of deflation there are receding on a permanent basis. Japanese long term interest rates are now approaching 2% and a twenty year high..Taiwanese exports were exceptionally strong again, as we have come to expect. They surged +56% in November from a year ago to a record US$64 bln, up from a 49% gain in October and again better that market expectations for a 41% rise. It is strong global demand for their chips and AI technology that is powering these amazing results.German exports also rose in October, a surprise because that had risen strongly in September and a small correction was expected.We get US export data on Friday, and in contrast to Japan, Germany, Taiwan and China, they are currently expected to show a retreat.In Australia, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at Tuesday's review as expected. Their review was slightly more hawkish, firmly focused on the upside risks to inflation. And that is what financial markets reacted to with bond yields rising as a result.And staying in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped in November from October, but stayed just positive, although the weakest reading since April. The survey showed business conditions softened after declines in sales and profitability.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4217/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday. And we should note that silver has set a new record high, over US$60/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1 again at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl. Analysts are sow saying a 'super glut' of oil is on the way, and downward price pressures will rise from here.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie though we are essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.1, and also up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,444 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.In the US, the top-line survey of inflation expectations seems stable at a highish 3.2% for the year ahead, 3.0% for 5 years ahead. But within that are some signals that have garnered attention. Expectations for food rose to 5.9%, petrol climbed to 4.1%, medical care surged to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased to 8.4%, and rent jumped to 8.3%. The main reason the overall lid remained is that house price expectations fell. The survey indicated that consumers expect a worsening financial situation.The failure of the Trump Administration to get a deal out of China for agricultural exports is seeing them scrambling to support their farmers with direct subsidies.There was another US Treasury auction today, the ever-popular 3 year Note. But offer volumes fell more than -7% for this event. It delivered a median yield of 3.57%, little-changed from the 3.54% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Japan, a powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 struck northeastern Japan late Monday night, with aaa a tsunami warning for coastal areas of Hokkaido issued.Japan’s GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.In China, they released November trade data overnight and their exports rose by +5.9% from a year ago to an eleven-month high, much better than the expected +3.8% rise and recovering from the -1.1% fall in October. There was a notable surge in exports to non-US markets. A lower than expected rise in imports delivered at trade balance exceeding +US$110 for the month and extending their rise that started with the Trump challenge in late 2024. Separation from the US has delivered a rising export dividend for China. For the eleven months of 2025 so far, the Chinese trade surplus has now exceeded US$1 tln.Over all of 2025 to the US, their exports fell -18% and their imports fell -13%. To Australia, China's exports are up +8% while imports are down -8%. To New Zealand, China's exports are up +4% while their imports are up +10%.As good as these export numbers are for China, they are also going into debt at an equally impressive rates. China’s central government will likely issue more than CNY12 tln (US$1.7 tln) of new debt in 2026, with a fiscal deficit ratio of at least 4%. There is alarm in some quarters as the expansionist policies get the official tick..In Europe, German industrial production rose +1.8% in October from September, sharply outperforming market expectations for a -0.4% decline. It was the strongest monthly gain since March. Year on year it is up +0.8%. The Germans measure this metric in real, inflation-adjusted terms.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4191/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc, down -10 bps. Against the Aussie though we are up +10 bps at just on 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,846 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term global bond yields are rising.The coming week will be one dominated by the final central bank monetary policy decisions of the year. The big one, the one that will likely move markets, is the US one on Thursday NZT. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 3.75%. There will also be central bank decisions from Canada (Thursday, no change expected), Switzerland (Friday, no change), Australia (Tuesday, no change), Brazil (Thursday, no change), and Turkey (Friday, -100 bps).This week will also feature China releasing a series of key November economic data including for exports (expected to be strong), CPI inflation (expected to rise marginally but stay very low), PPI (still in deflation). Monetary and debt data will also be closely watched. In Japan, it will be all about their Q3 GDP, PPI, and machine tool orders.In India, markets will focus on November inflation data.In Australia, apart from the expected no-change RBA decision, labour market data will likely show their jobless rate edging up, and business confidence surveys are expected to be broadly stable.At the end of last week bond markets kept pushing up long term yields. The rise of Japanese long bond yields has this market concerned. But that just comes on top of where US fiscal stability is heading.In the US, personal income data is in catch-up mode with September details released over the weekend. Income was up +1.9% from a year ago while personal expenditures were up +2.1% on the same basis. Their PCE version of inflation was +2.8% and rising. There are no real surprises in this now-old data.Meanwhile US consumer debt rose +2.2% or +US$9.2 bln in October, less than expected and less than the September rise. Revolving debt (like credit cards) rose at an annual rate of +4.9%. Non-revolving debt which includes car and student loans was up +1.2%.Earlier, the University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey reported it didn't fall from November, posting a small, probably insignificant gain. That leaves it -28% lower than a year ago. Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month. Despite the nominal improvements, the overall levels across the board remain quite dismal for most consumers there.Canada reported payroll data for November over the weekend and rather than the expected -5000 dip, they got a +53,600 gain in overall employment. But unfortunately for them, all the gains were in part-time employment (+63,000) with full time jobs shrinking -9,400.This extended better-than-expected labour market report is one of the reasons the IMF's latest review of Canada was quite positive. They are impressed by how Canada is handling the attempted-trashing it has been getting from the US.In China, their foreign exchange reserves, already very large, climbed to US$3.346 tln in November and fractionally less than expected. It was the fourth straight month of increases, to the highest level since November 2015 and it happened even though the US dollar weakened. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China continued to add to its gold holdings for the thirteenth consecutive month, with reserves edging up to 74.1 mln troy ounces in November and their value rose +4.5% in a month (in USD).In India, and as expected, their central bank cut its key repo rate by -25 bps to 5.25% at its Friday meeting. They claim confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of -125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.In Japan, household personal spending fell unexpectedly in October, and quite hard. It was down -2.9% from a year ago, way different to the market expectations of a +1.0% rise, and reversing a +1.8% gain in September. It was the first decline since April. From September, personal spending fell -3.5%, and starkly different from the expected +0.7% rise.In Germany, factory orders rose +1.5% in October from September, better than the expected +0.5% gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in the previous month. From a year ago, their factory orders are down -0.7% however. The latest data was boosted by a very large (+87%) jump in orders for large equipment like aircraft, ships, and trains. There was also a +12% rise in metal production and processing. In contrast, demand for electrical equipment fell -16%. These are all quite big moves with the overall change.Globally, the FAO says its Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month in November, with all indices but cereals down. Dairy prices were down -1.6% from a year ago, down -11.5% from their June peak. Meat prices were up +5.0% from a year ago but down -2.7% from their recent September peak.It is probably worth noting that the Argentine wheat crop is going to be huge this year, one that will have global impacts. In Australia, the winter wheat crop will be the second largest ever too.Also worth noting is that Trump's boast to farmers that the Chinese will be back buying American soybeans in a major way was just fantasy. They have bought only minor volumes. Administration officials are now admitting there never was any agreement.And we should also probably note that the copper price is moving up sharply again, back toward its US-tariff-induced July heights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +12 bps for the week. The price of gold will start today at US$4197/oz, and down -US$18 from Saturday, down -US$13 for the week. Silver is moving higher again, back at over US$58.50/oz and near its record high.American oil prices are holding at just over US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$64/bbl, and up about +US$1 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is marginally higher from Saturday, now at just under 57.8 USc, up +50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday and from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,503 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a strong of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nine months for this metric. The continued expansion in both business activity and new orders drove this outcome. Similarly, the S&P Global version for the US service sector reported an expansion although less than in October. Both surveys noted high embedded inflation however.US industrial production rose +0.1% in September from August, following a downwardly revised -0.3% drop in August. This means from a year ago, American industrial production is up +1.6%. Better than a decline but nothing like how the tariff-effects were sold. This activity was far better in the Obama years.But the ADP private sector payrolls report for November brought tough news. Businesses cut -32,000 jobs in November, following an upwardly revised +47,000 gain in October. Analysts were expecting this report to show a +10,000 rise based on ADP's weekly reporting. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by a -120,000 drop at small businesses. We won't get the official non-farm payrolls report for November until December 17 (NZT), in its delayed restart.And the volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by -1.4% from the previous week in the last week of November to the lowest level in nearly three months. And that happened even though the key mortgage rates fell to a four week low.US vehicle sales were modest in November. They rose from October to 15.6 mln units but that is a long way down from the 16.7 mln in November 2024.Across the Pacific in China, their services sector continues to expand, driven by a sustained increase in new business, though the expansion slowed since October.China's local government debt continues to balloon as the lingering real estate slump has led to decreased income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high. The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles that fund their projects now sits at a remarkable ¥134 tln (NZ$33 tln).In the EU, producer prices were little changed in October from September, but from a year ago they have dipped -0.2%. So no inflation pressures from this direction.In Australia, their economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$663/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have also held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,535 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is in a slowdown period as the globally large economies show signs of culminating.But we start today with some tough news. The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large have happened before since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today's event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn't positive.The OECD says global economic growth to ease to +2.9% in 2026 from +3.2% in 2025 as tariffs, weak trade and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on activity. In the US, growth is projected to slow to +2.0% in 2025 and +1.7% in 2026. For China, they see economic growth of +5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Consumption will be dampened by high precautionary savings and the payback effect of the now winding down trade-in program.For New Zealand they said after contracting in 2024, the economy is projected to expand by +0.7% in 2025, +1.8% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027. Growth will be supported by lower interest rates, improving household real incomes, buoyant tourism, and firm commodity export earnings. However, weak confidence, high energy costs, easing net immigration, and elevated uncertainty surrounding trade restrictions are expected to remain headwinds to the near-term recovery. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target band, easing towards 2%. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from its peak in 2025.For Australia, they said economic growth is now strengthening and becoming more private-sector-driven. GDP growth is projected to quicken to +2.3% in 2026 and 2027, up from 1.8% in 2025. This is consistent with a gradual closing of the small negative output gap, keeping unemployment low while allowing inflation to remain close to target. Risks are balanced, with downside risks from a greater-than-expected softening of labour market conditions while, on the upside, strengthening disposable incomes could bring a faster acceleration of private consumption.The signals in the US were not as negative today. The RCM/TIPP economic optimism Index recovered in December from is sharp November dip. But to be fair, this only returns it to the below-average levels it reported from March to October.But that rebound was not seen in their logistics sector. The Logistics Manager’s Index eased back to its slowest growth in the sector since June 2024. The slowdown is driven by a continued softening of inventory and warehousing metrics but tempered by some expansion in transportation. Warehousing utilisation contracted for the first time in the 9-year history of the index.However, by some accounts the US holiday retail activity was strong, especially for online trade. Shoppers there spent US$14 bln online on Cyber Monday, pushing total online sales over the Thanksgiving weekend to US$44 bln. Spending rose +7.7% during the so-called Cyber Week - the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday - compared with an +8.2% increase to $41 bln last year and above its prior expectations of $43.7 bln.Across the Pacific, Japanese consumer confidence rose sharply in November from October to its best level since April 2024, with all components improving:In the EU, inflation is running in their sweet spot. Euro area consumer price inflation rose to +2.2% in November, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above market expectations of 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to +3.5% however (from 3.4%) and its highest level since April, while energy prices declined at a slower pace.In Australia, and after a big September surge, October's residential building permit levels were expected to be tame by comparison. But in the event it was negative and the September rise was revised lower. And that meant the annual level of consents to October were lower than a year ago and its first year-on-year retreat since June 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.10%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4186/oz, and down -US$47 from yesterday. Silver has held up at US$58/oz.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$62.50/bbl. And we should note that natural gas prices dropped back yesterday after the prior day surge.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,852 and recovering +6.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high, at just on +/- 3.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at a faster pace. Survey respondents cite problems with the tariff-taxes, and "trade confusion". And they report high price pressure, and rising The November result is below the deterioration expected. It's a result that has cast a pall over Wall Street today.But the ISM report is only one perspective. The rival S&PGlobal factory PMI reported a November expansion, even a modest rise in new orders. But it also noted that a lot of this 'positive activity' is related to inventory building which won't be sustainable without final customer demand. Financial markets seemed to ignore this alternate PMI.The Canadian factory PMi wasn't positive either for November which reported a marginal contraction. Interestingly, it also reported lower inflation pressures.These two North American factory PMIs feed into a global report that has overall output and new orders rising at slower rates but business optimism rising to a five-month high.In India, their October report for industrial production brought an unexpectedly sharp slowdown, hardly above year-ago levels when +4% year-on-year gains had become the norm for the past two years. We will need to wait for their November result to see if October was just an aberration. They will be hoping so.In Japan, their central bank governor has been speaking and has hinted that a rate hike at their next meeting on December 19 is a live possibility. (see pages 6 & 7.)In China, the alternative PMI to the official version has also slipped in a similar way. The S&PGlobal manufacturing sector PMI shows that conditions deteriorated in November, not by a lot, but certainly going the wrong way. There was no growth in new orders.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for November rose again and is now further above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target range. Interestingly, while this result is higher, it is lower than the official October CPI rate of 3.8%.After a -2.6% quarter-on-quarter fall in Australian company profits in Q2-2025, they were expected to bounce back in Q3-2025. But in the event they stalled, unchanged, in a disappointing outcome and only +1.1% higher than year-ago levels.And staying in Australia, the Cotality house price tracking rose +1.0% in November, a slight softening from the +1.1% gain in October. Annual growth lifted to +7.1%, with quarterly gains tracking a +13.2% annualised pace. Sydney and Melbourne are the laggards, indicating that affordability has reached its serviceability limits.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.09%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4233/oz, and up just +US$15 from yesterday. But silver has surged again to a new record high of US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$63/bbl. And we should probably also note that natural gas prices are rising and are now at their highest except for the pandemic period.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just under 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,426 and down -7.0%% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at just on +/- 4.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and the Aussies will release the Q3-2025 GDP growth rate, expected to be +2.2% from a year agoIn the US, there will be more catch-up official data releases but their non-farm payroll data for November has been delayed until mid-December now. However ADP will release its new weekly update and the Challenger job cut report will still come out on time. There will be PMIs for the US and no-one expects much change in any of this. Of special interest will be the end-of-week release of the UofM sentiment survey. Few see any improvement there either with it hovering around record lows.Elsewhere there will be a raft of PMI and trade and inflation releases from many countries. And the Indian central bank meets and is widely expected to cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% despite the surging growth. Fast-falling food prices means inflation is seen as under control there.Over the weekend India said their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate rise since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28%, to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.China said its official November PMIs were weaker and their tepid expansion has turned into a general but small contraction. The main change was for their services sector, shrinking for the first time in three years and joining the ongoing small contraction in their factory sector. That factory sector has now contracted for eight straight months. Both measures would be a lot worse if they didn't have deflation in their input costs. The private S&PGlobal version isn't expected to vary much from that when it is released later today, although it may be on the more positive side. Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.Japan said retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an unexpected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.In Canada, they released their September GDP growth outcome over the weekend and their forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.Early reports of US retail trade over the weekend seem positive, but heavily focused online.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02%, unchanged from Saturday but down -5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$7 from Saturday. And that is a +US$134/oz rise for the week, or +3.2%.Silver surged in Friday US trade to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. A Comex outage in the US didn't help either.American oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.4 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are little-changed overnight at just on 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and essentially unchanged from Saturday, up +110 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,838 and up +1.5% from Saturday. And it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however, at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economy has one month to go to bolster its 2025 economic performance, all down to retail sales now.First, of course, the US is now in its Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the start of their big retail period until Christmas. A lot rides on the consumer spending activity in this period. It is an impulse with global impact. But the lead-in has not been helpful about giving clues on how it will turn out.Meanwhile, Canadian average weekly earnings came in stronger than expected, up +3.1% in September from a year ago and a touch higher than the August +2.7% rise on the same basis. It was a broad-based rise. It is not a bad result for them given their CPI rise was +2.4% in September, and fell to +2.2% in October, so their earnings are recording real gains.The 'Buy Canadian' movement will be getting the ultimate test this weekend during the 'Black Friday' sales period.In China, industrial profits dropped -5.5% in October from a year ago, taking the top off the +22% jump in September. and the +13% rise in August, and being the first slowdown in growth in three months. A quarter of all companies are now posting losses, a record high. The cost of debt is also a reason some are noting that profits are under pressure. And that may loom larger, because Beijing as told their SOE banks to lend more to other SOEs to prop up consumption demand.We can also see office rents in major cities falling, vacancy rates rising, as pain spreads in the commercial property sector. Vanke is wobbling more now. And separately, despite high sales and rapid growth, Chinese car manufacturers are suffering record low margins. Their industry is very vulnerable to a demand slowdown.In Taiwan, consumer sentiment edged up in October from September, but it is still quite low and far lower than year-ago levels. They haven't got back anywhere near the level they started the year with. Relentless mainland pressure to 'unify' and kill their independence isn't helping.The Bank of Korea held its base policy rate at 2.5% at today's meeting, the final policy session of the year. It did this despite concerns over the broader Korean economic outlook, including a persistent property market slump and a volatile currency.In Malaysia, producer prices were little-changed in October, essentially ending the deflation they had in the prior seven months.In the EU, overall economic sentiment held as did consumer inflation expectations. They are modest and back to pre-pandemic levels in a stable mode and putting behind them the rather strong deflationary expectations over the past two years. That sanguine view was reinforced by the release overnight of the ECB meeting minutes. They seem happy with where they are at and no rate changes seem imminent.In Australia, prudential regulator APRA has said it will limit high debt-to-income home loans to constrain riskier lending that is starting to show up in that market. Some of it has been induced by the Canberra government's taxpayer-subsidised 5% deposit guarantee scheme.And staying in Australia, new private capital spending is rising and more quickly than expected. The rise was largely driven by non-mining industries, which recorded a +13.0% jump, while spending on mining equipment and machinery grew just +4.5%.Global container freight rates dipped -2% last week to be -47% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are a touch weaker while trans-Atlantic rates a touch stronger. However, bulk freight rates have risen +6.0% over the past week and are now sitting a touch over +50% higher than year ago levels and are back to levels we last saw briefly in November 2023, and prior to that during the pandemic.The UST 10yr yield is still just on 4.00% with US markets closed.The price of gold will start today at US$4156/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen almost +US$1 from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up, but less, now just over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +30 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just over 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and up +30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,468 and up +4.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news notable data in both Australia and New Zealand yesterday has reset our currencies and our benchmark interest rates.In New Zealand of course it was the market reaction to the RBNZ OCR cut, in Australia it was the unexpected rise in their CPI inflation. Both had a cumulative impact in both countries.But first. American mortgage applications has week were little-changed, but refinance activity softened noticeably while new purchase activity was firm, despite mortgage interest rates creeping up.Actual US initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 last week from the prior week's 218,300, but that puts them almost identical to year-ago levels. Continuing claims are now 1,796,000, +4.3% higher than year-ago levels.Catch-up data for US durable goods orders for September was mildly positive from August but were a good +9.6% higher than year-ago levels. Excluding aircraft and defence orders, capital goods orders were little-changed from a year ago.More current, the Chicago PMI came in much more negative in November than the weak October level with weakness building in new order levels, production, and employment. It is now down approaching ten-year lows.We get the Fed's Beige Book later this morning and it too is expected to report weaker conditions. Of special interest will be what they found in these surveys on inflation pressures.Across the Pacific, Singapore reported strong rises in industrial production, rising +29% from a year ago an that was their largest gain in over ten years.In Hong Kong we should note a tragedy. A massive fire has engulfed multiple high-rise residential blocks in Hong Kong's northern Tai Po district overnight, killing at least 36 people with hundreds still missing They struggled to bring the blaze under control.In Australia, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September and above expectations of a 3.6% increase. It is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025. They are likely to get rate hikes in 2026 now.And staying in Australia, total construction work fell -0.7% in Q3-2025 from the prior quarter, missing expectations for a +0.4% rise. But it held its year-on-year +2.9% growth in Q3. The quarterly downturn was driven primarily by a sharp drop in engineering work based around infrastructure projects.Here in New Zealand, yesterday's Monetary Policy Statement brought a more hawkish tone than financial markets were expecting and that caused a rethink in how interest rate pricing was set, resulting in a rise across the board in rates.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.00%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4166/oz, and up +US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a sharpish +80 bps from yesterday, now at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at just under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +60 bps to 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6, and up a significant +80 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,560 and up +0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.In the US, S&P Ratings has downgraded its stability rating of stablecoin Tether to 'Weak", concerned it is undercollateralised - that is, it no longer has the backing to maintain is USD peg.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a rather sharp -4% for WMP. This will keep downward pressure on pay-out forecasts for the current season, especially the WMP result.In the US, the ADP weekly employment report said a net -13,500 US jobs were lost last week, the largest weekly drop since ADP started releasing their weekly data. The pace of payroll shrinkage seems to be rising in the US.American retail sales growth slowed to +4.3% in September from the + 5.0% rise in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose +0.2%, half the expected +0.4% increase and suggesting the weakness is concentrated recently. Observers will be watching the weak car sales component, especially.Producer prices rose +2.7% in September from a year earlier, exactly as expected.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in October from year-ago levels, the second consecutive monthly dip, and the eighth of 2025. However they did record a seasonal rise from September.The latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed covering the mid-Atlantic states was quite negative.And the Dallas Fed services survey was downbeat too, although the contraction there was at a slower pace than in October.So it will be no surprise to learn that the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey was also quite negative, falling sharply and mirroring the similar University of Michigan survey. Perceptions of inflation rose, to 4.8%.And traditional Thanksgiving travel plans are being scaled back. They were expecting a rise this year, but the economic situation and uncertainties about disruptions are seeing an unexpected rise in cancellations, so a decline is now anticipated.Across the Pacific in South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.In Taiwan, retail sales rose +1.9% in October from the same month a year ago, a bounce-back from the -1.6% dip in September. Meanwhile their industrial production expanded sharply again, up another +14.5% on that same year-on-year basis, although the pace of expansion seems to be slowing a bit even if it is strong.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.00%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday to 3.99% as a defensive mood takes hold.The price of gold will start today at US$4138/oz, and up +US$42 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 from yesterday to be just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just under 56.1 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just under 87 AUc. Against the euro we have dropped -20 bps to 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, and little-changed if soft.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,996 and down -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.Today, the RBNZ will review the OCR and issue its final Monetary Policy Statement of the year. Join us from 2pm when we will start our full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.In Australia, they will implement age-restrictions for social media platforms on December 10, almost all of them American-owned and all enabling unrestricted criminal communications that also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8, and down a bit less than -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear how it will affect fixed home loan rates. After that, we will get the local consumer and business sentiment updates.In Australia, the key data release this week will be Wednesday's monthly CPI data for October, expected to dip from 3.5% to 3.3%.Elsewhere there will be a lot of data from the US early in the week as they clear the decks with shutdown-delayed data before they go on their four-day Thanksgiving weekend break. Other countries will be releasing GDP and inflation data too.In China, attention will turn to October industrial profits and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for November. In Japan, markets will focus on October labour and industrial production data. In India, GDP figures are expected to show that the economy grew at a slightly slower pace in July to September 2025, though most analysts still anticipate growth above 7%. The Bank of Korea will review its policy rate too but no change is expected.Over the weekend, China reported that its foreign direct investment inflows were still struggling in October, but they were at least positive in the month. They rose marginally more in the October 2025 month than in the weak October 2024 month. For all of 2025 so far, these flows are still -10% lower that the same period last year.In India, their very strong economic activity expansion eased in November, but only slightly and is still rocketing along at a very fast pace in both their services and factory sectors. But of note here is that price pressures are easing.Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.And the Bank of Japan is close to raising their policy interest rate above the current 0.5% when they next meet on December 18, 2025. If not then, then in the January meeting.In Europe, ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating one notch to “Baa2” (ie BBB) and revised its outlook from positive to stable. They said Italy's consistent track record of political and policy stability has allowed their first upgrade in 23 yearsIn the US, the S&P Global factory PMI dipped but is still reporting an expansion (51.9). Their services sector expanded faster to a moderate level (55.0), and this was better than expected. Of concern however is that these surveys report input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting its fastest rate for three years. Of course, tariff-taxes were the predominant reason cited. It may seem unlikely there would be a rate cut on December 11 (NZT) when the Fed next meets, but one important Fed member does still see a cut possibility.Business activity might be expanding, but American consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey confirms it is now at record lows. The final November survey reports consumers are very frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. The spoils of expansion and success are accruing to a very few which is building a toxic divide there. Holiday weekend retail sales data will tell us a lot about how most American consumers are feeling about the lead-in to 2026.On the trade front, it appears the much-heralded resumption of soybean purchases by China from the US, isn't happening apart from token trades.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -8 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4064/oz, and down -US$20 from Saturday. But down -US$34 for the week.American oil prices have largely held from Saturday to be just on US$58/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62.50/bbl. These are both down -US$2 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from Saturday but down -70 bps for the week. So far in November it has devalued by -2.3%. Against the Aussie we are holding at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9, little-changed from Saturday, but down -50 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,576 and up +2.3% from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$95,780 so it is down -9.9% since then.. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance activity was the hardest hit. Still, it and purchase application levels remain well above year-ago levels.There was also official data released overnight, old catchup data for the US trade balance for both goods and services. That came in at the expected -US$50 bln deficit for August, exports flat, imports also flat. That was slightly better than August 2024 but almost identical to August 2023.And there will be no October jobs report from the US. It has been cancelled, officially because they "couldn't collect some data", but more likely because it would have delivered news the White House didn't want.Meanwhile reports circulate that the US is not only rolling back tariff-taxes on food imports, it is also close to rolling them back on steel and aluminium, maybe like the food rollback, somewhat selectively.The latest US Treasury 20 year bond auction raised US$17.8 bln at a median yield of 4.65%, up from 4.46% at the prior equivalent auction a month ago.The US Fed minutes of their last meeting on October 30 are due to be released at 8AM NZT. There is intense interest in these, more so because Trump as one acolyte in on the meetings pushing for [dangerous] rate cuts. If there is important stuff that emerges, we will update this item here.In Japan, September machinery orders rose a better-than-expected +11.6% from the same month a year earlier, up an impressive +4.2% from August. (This result is not twisted by large, volatile items like for ships or major infrastructure machinery such as electric power plants. That would have pushed the rise even higher.) Export orders were particularly notable.And Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.77% on Wednesday, a 17-year high. A year ago it was at 1.06%. The recent climb comes ahead of a crucial ¥800 bln debt auction (US$5.1 bln) that could indicate investor appetite signals. That is important because the new Takaichi government plans major debt-financed stimulus which is raising fiscal concerns.Meanwhile, China has raised US$8.6 bln in USD and EUR bonds. While that is a lot for them, it pales compared to the US$234 bln that was bidIn Malaysia, they are still an export powerhouse with October exports up +15.7% from a year ago and to a record high, imports up +11.2%, also a record high, resulting in a larger positive trade balance than expected. In fact, they haven't run a trade deficit in any month since the pandemic.As expected, the Indonesian central bank left its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 4.75%.In Australia, payroll costs rose pretty much as expected in the September quarter. They were up +3.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. Public sector wages increased +3.8%, slightly above the +3.7% rise in Q2, while private sector wages grew by +3.2%, easing from +3.4% previously. (Overall, total wages and salaries for all employees rose +5.3% for the year to September, boosted by an expanding workforce.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4071/oz, and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price down to under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and down -50 bps from yesterday, to its lowest since July 2009.And we probably should note that the NZD has now fallen below 4 Chinese renminbi for the first time in three years.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,524 and down a sharp -4.2% from yesterday and well lower than year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was down -3.0% in USD terms, more because that makes it seven declines in a row from early August, taking the cumulative drop to -13%. And the recent retreats seem to be getting more intense. We now have prices lower than year-ago levels. And the decline in USD is being matched by the decline in NZD now, down -2.9% in this latest event.Clearly analysts will be dusting off their current season payout forecasts because they are risk of being downgraded. Behind the softness is a faster-than-expected rise in dairy production levels due to good weather conditions globally. That is as true for New Zealand as anywhere, where milk production is rising. The pointy end of this pressure is the butter price, and that dropped -7.6% at this latest auction. WMP was down a lesser -1.9%, SMP down only -0.6%.In the US, the ADP weekly payrolls report delivered another drop, the one for the week to November 1 not as sharp as the prior week however. This data suggests the US labour market lost momentum in late October, with a number of large companies announcing job cuts during the month, including Amazon and Target.Official data releases are being restarted in the US, but the data is old now. Overnight they said August factory orders rose to be +2.0% higher than year-ago levels. But because this is not inflation-adjusted and the past US PPI rise was +2.6%, it probably means shrinkage in real terms. There has been no indication this things have improved from August.And restarted official jobless claims data is only for October 18, but it rose then to +232,000 and above the expected level of +223,000. Continuing claims were a touch under 2 mln (1.96 mln) and notably above the 1.85 mln in the same week in 2024.The US NAHB housing market index came in essentially unchanged for October from September and -17% lower than year-ago levels. But they will be pleased it didn't drop back.Yesterday we reported a good improvement for factories in the New York region. But today the report for the very much bigger services sector in the same region has remained very negative.We could perhaps note that the Atlanta Fed monitors home loan affordability for the US is a similar way we do for New Zealand. They say that in September 2025, 43% of take-home pay was required to service an American mortgage and that is 'unaffordable'. They say affordability starts when it is 30% or less. (Our New Zealand September HLA was 33.0%.)In Canada, housing starts dropped sharply in October to their lowest in six month and to levels lower than the same month a year agoThe Australian central bank released the minutes of its last meeting on November 4 yesterday, closely-watched because they have rising inflation and a relatively strong labour market. But they downplayed both aspects, calling them 'slight' and expecting them to be transitory. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. They said patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. Basically, you don't learn anything by reading these minutes.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4061/oz, and down -US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened very slightly from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price down -50 USc to US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.2, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,460 and down -0.4% from yesterday and it is still lower than year-ago levels. At one point in the past 24 hours it dipped below US$90,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lower than that.In Canada their inflation rate dipped slightly in October to 2.2% from 2.4% in September, and far less than the 3.0% and rising inflation rate last reported in their southern neighbour. Canadian petrol prices fell sharply, and the steam seems to have gone out of their grocery prices.Meanwhile, foreign investors are finding Canadian securities attractive, raising theri holdings sharply. They increased them by +C$31.3 bln in September, an unusual spike for a month that usually attracts only modest levels. Canadians themselves are choosing local securities increasingly too, in a substantial out-of-cycle rise of their own.In China, there is increasing talk that the weekend's very soft economic data will bring rate cuts to their loan prime rates when they are next reviewed on Thursday, even a cut in their reserve ratio requirement of banks. Both are currently at record low levels already.In something of a big positive surprise, Singapore's October non-oil exports rose sharply to S$17.2 bln, up more than +23% from year-ago levels up +15% from September. That is up from the +7% rise in September. Their non-oil exports to Thailand rose a massive +91%, to Taiwan a massive +61%, to South Korea by +38%. Going the other way, their exports to the US dropped -12%, and to both China and Japan were virtually unchanged.India exports fell almost -12% in October from a year ago, but Indian imports surged more than +16% in the same month. Indian exports to the US fell notably. That has resulted in a huge merchandise trade deficit blowout of -US$41.7 bln and by far and away their largest trade deficit. Fortunately they run trade surpluses for services, but even after than it was still a record -US$22 bln deficit and more than double year-ago levels.And we should note that aluminium prices, which are already very high, are likely to rise further on tight supply. Rio Tinto is adding surcharges on shipments to the US, where prices are globally elevated anyway due to tariffs, due to the supply shortage and the need for American to have to pay to get the product. That cascades through to consumer prices and inflation. These cost increases will be particularly troublesome for US-made cars.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4067/oz, and down -US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have held from yesterday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,687 and down -0.5% from yesterday and it is now lower than year-ago levels. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then the US Fed will release the minutes of its October 30 meeting and observers will be looking for similar clues.Locally we will get another full dairy auction, and trade data this week, preceded this morning by the REINZ October results at 9am.Trade, inflation and PMI data will be coming from a range of countries. From the US, we await how they will be catching up with their official data releases. There will be the usual prosaic private sector data releases but the new weekly ADP employment data will bring intense interest, as will some earnings reports, especially from Nvidia.There will be little major data this coming week from China, because they released most of it this past weekend. And that was headlined by an big unexpected negative surprise from their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of their domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the resulting defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September, officially, but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.In India, bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.In Canada, they released some September data over the weekend and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data sets indicate remarkable resilience, and their fast transition even after being dumped-on capriciously by the US.And there was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).In the US there are clear signs investors are getting quite skittish about the risks of bonds tied to AI companies. Don't forget bonds have priority over equities, so the dive for insurance on bonds isn't a great sign. Bloomberg is reporting the demand for credit default swaps is surging for these bonds and they cite what is happening in Oracle's case. A surge in debt is expected to flood debt markets soon as these AI companies ramp up funding of their plans.And there is the news that Trump is now rolling back some of his tariff-taxes, because even he can see they have caused household inflation and the 'affordability crisis' he is being blamed for. US inflation pressure is moving the dial in money markets. The chance of a Fed rate cut on December 11 (NZT) is fading, and quite quickly, as professional traders scale back the bets on a cut rather sharply.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up another +1 bp from Saturday at this time up +7 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4081/oz, and down -US$17 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$17 for the week.American oil prices have held from Saturday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl, up less than +US$1 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.8 USc, and unchanged from Saturday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, little-changed from yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,374 and down another -1.5% from yesterday. That is its lowest since May 2025 and down -8.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.