FICC Focus

Renewed US-China trade tensions, the impact of tariffs on rare-earth minerals and the growing uncertainty facing markets are among the topics discussed in this episode of Macro Matters, part of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus series. Host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief interest rate strategist, speaks with Ben Emons, founder and CIO of Fed Watch Advisors, about how these developments could influence inflation, unemployment and the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. They also examine gold’s surge, global spillovers and what lies ahead for Fed policy and leadership. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“If I were a lender, I would sign a coop with everyone — or mostly everyone — the day after the loan closes, and then just let it sit there.” That’s Douglas Mintz’s solution to the damaging frenzy that often erupts when word spreads that creditors are organizing ahead of a potential liability management exercise. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku, Mintz, who is a partner in Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP’s Financial Restructuring practice and a member of the firm’s Special Situations team, discusses the dynamics between majority and minority creditors, examining how recent rulings in ConvergeOne, Incora and American Tire Distributors are shaping creditor strategies. Prior to that, BI’s Phil Brendel and Stephen Flynn examine the current state of the communications sector, which houses the largest share of distressed-debt supply. The podcast concludes with a roundtable discussion on First Brands, Spirit Airlines, New Fortress Energy and Telesat.

Gold isn’t showing signs of true dollar debasement, if it were, there would be an even more severe market reaction, says Merk Investments co-founder and CIO Axel Merk on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Merk joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey to discuss the reason gold has been climbing rapidly in recent weeks. Merk thinks the gold rally is due to speculators, central-bank and institutional buying, while he outlines how retail investors seem to have been sellers. Good management among gold producers is key for adding value when investing in the precious-metals sector. The two discuss the shifting relationship of real yields and gold performance. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield had a good 2025, despite tariffs and rates volatility as spreads held ground. Will 4Q sustain this resilience and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Alexis Renault, global head of high yield at Oddo BHF. They discuss the French fiscal problems and trade war's impact on credit, potential ECB action in a sovereign crisis along with distress and default rates. The podcast also covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors. Credit Crunch is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

There are some interesting developments in equity volatility which have trading implications from the pronounced spread between VIX and SPX realized volatility, low stock correlation, rise of single stock volatility and the shape of the VIX curve. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, Co-Head Derivative Strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.Register for the 2nd Annual Volatility Forum in New York, October 28 at Bloomberg's headquarters. Register here: https://go.bloomberg.com/attend/invite/bi-vol-forum-2025/

Asset-backed securities issuance remains slightly behind the same period in 2024, even with Tricolor-related angst continuing, notes Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist Rod Chadehumbe on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Chadehumbe and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey discuss Tricolor’s effect on the ABS market, how the consumer is driving issuance, recent trends in subprime credit-card and auto-ABS delinquencies, and his outlook for spreads. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series

The unexpected election of the LDP’s Sanae Takaichi and her known bias for expansionary fiscal policies is questioning the yen’s bull case and the currency’s sharp and broad selloff since the Oct. 4 result is a taste of what could come. For now, we don’t have enough information to assess how or when fiscal stimulus will eventually unfold, so it’s premature to call a sustainably bearish view until the fiscal prospects can be quantified.  In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss Japanese fiscal and monetary-policy dynamics and the potentially binary yen implications. Jordan and Audrey also discuss the dollar and the euro’s near-term political predicament.  This episode was recorded on Oct. 8. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Institutional appetite for high-beta asset classes continues to endure yet traditional safe havens are not behaving as they should. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss investor positioning and risk sentiment ahead of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Annual Meetings. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from global trade and geopolitics to term premia expansion and AI-related capital expenditure. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The Federal Reserve moving away from the federal funds rate as the policy target would be welcome, said Meghan Swiber, senior US rates strategist at Bank of America Securities on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Swiber and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey also discuss BofA’s views on the yield curve, Treasury issuance and Federal Reserve policy. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“Being able to underwrite a consumer, being able to offer that product to that consumer and then being able to touch that consumer is very, very important,” says Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital, discussing the company's focus on asset classes where it has an edge. Nierenberg joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Erica Adelberg on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about growth through M&A, changing the market’s perception of the company, recent deals for Crestline and Paramount Group, the history and growth of Rithm’s mortgage business, and what’s next. They also discuss effects of the yield curve and monetary policy, the implications of a low-volatility backdrop and asset classes that require caution. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Mortgage-backed securities may benefit from renewed bank demand as Fed easing improves net interest margins, according to Bloomberg Intelligence mortgage strategist Erica Adelberg. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, she joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US interest-rate strategist, to discuss mortgage issuance, market structure, the role of cash buyers in housing and how the Fed’s balance sheet is likely to affect mortgage supply. They also review research indicating that a significant portion of mortgages originated in recent years can now be refinanced. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Digital art has been around for decades but blockchain technology provides provenance. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nicole Sales Giles, Director of Digital Art at Christie's to discuss the volatility of the NFT art market, AI generated art and emerging artists to watch.

The official line is that QT has added 15-25 bps on 10-year gilts, but it’s probably adding quite a bit more than that, says Huw Worthington, chief European rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who sees signs that central banks are addressing that now. In this episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US & Canada rates-strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss takeaways from the recent Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Canada meetings. The trio discusses the outlook for the path of monetary policy and the direction of interest rates and yield curves across North American and European sovereign-bond markets. They also examine the focus on shifting balance-sheet policies as North American funding markets see some pressure and the Bank of England slows the pace of asset runoff.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“I think it’s very difficult to predict a world where you might go back to zero interest rates. And so that all portends that there’s likely to be an uptick in default rates,” says Jeff Diehl, managing partner and head of investments at Adams Street, discussing potential challenges awaiting direct lenders after the strong growth of the asset class. Diehl joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about Adams Street’s approach to private credit managers, a focus on sectors exposed to disruption, how having private equity (PE) and venture capital exposures creates synergies. They also discuss private market secondaries, how hyper-scaling in parts of the direct-lending market may add returns risk and the outlook for PE exit activity. The information presented herein is provided for informational and educational purposes only; it is not investment advice, nor is it an offer or sale of, or a recommendation related to, the securities of any fund or company, investment products, or investment advice. This podcast is a recording of extemporaneous remarks delivered in an informal, conversational format.  The comments are high-level in nature, represent the subjective impression of the speaker, may be forward-looking and are subject to change.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no guarantee against a loss, including a complete loss, of capital.”

“I spend most of my time trying to downplay the stuff that you find fascinating, right?,” Joele Frank Partner Michael Freitag says. “The inter-creditor interaction, the creditor versus sponsor interaction, the creditor versus issuer action. We try to position all of that as this noise, this thing going off to the side, being managed by sophisticated investors and sophisticated advisors.” In this episode of The State of Distressed Debt, Freitag discusses with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how distressed companies’ strategic communications have evolved over the past 30 years. (6:20) Freitag delves into the crafting and sequencing of press releases and 8-Ks as part of a comprehensive restructuring strategy, stressing that accurate, timely communications are critical to combat the growing presence of “dark arts” in social media. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Hebert and Brendel for a roundtable discussion on Spirit Airlines, LifeScan, At Home, Azul, TPI Composites, Claire’s and QVC Group. (1:14:00)

Foreign demand for emerging-market local debt is improving, as overseas investors pursue yield differentials amid diminishing currency volatility. Bertrand Delgado, head of Latin America strategy at Societe Generale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to assess macroeconomic conditions across Latin America and the broader EM landscape, with implications for institutional investors across the globe. Delgado and Sassower touch on topics ranging from portfolio flows and foreign direct investment to cross-asset volatility and currency skew.

“The Federal Reserve was created to have a degree of what I like to call operational independence”, says Federated Hermes Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income RJ Gallo on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. He joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss future movements of the Treasury yield curve, recent economic data and its quality, and effects of recent government policies such as tariffs and the budget. On monetary policy and the risks to Fed independence, he believes the Fed was created to have a degree of operational independence, but as an organization with board members appointed by political officials, it’s not outside the political sphere. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit fared better than rates and equities through multiple crises this year across the globe — France, tariffs, Fed concerns and even the UK worries. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses these crises and the multi-asset outlook with Iain Stealey, international CIO of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. They cover US, Europe and UK growth, inflation, central bank views and the dollar. The state of credit fundamentals and default expectations for the next year across Europe and the US are examined in detail, highlighting the resilience of credit in outperforming rates and equities. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Institutional demand has been slow to return to the muni market in 2025, leaving performance at the long end under pressure. Yet signs are emerging that banks, insurance companies, and crossover buyers may be stepping back in as tax clarity improves and relative value looks more compelling. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano is joined by her former co-host, Eric Kazatsky, managing director and client portfolio manager at MacKay Shields, to discuss his new role, and how institutional money could help support the yield curve into year-end.

The real yield curve may steepen from both ends much further then it has, Mizuho Securities Head of Macro Strategy Dominic Konstam says on this Macro Matters edition of FICC Focus podcast. Konstam joins host Ira Jersey, head of interest-rate strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence. After reviewing Konstam’s career arc, the two discuss term premium and how shifts in the yield curve could effect risk assets. Konstam thinks Trump Administration policies will continue to weight on the dollar. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.