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Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
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Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Author: Carson Investment Research

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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.

The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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With the bull market we have had for several months now, it is normal for some to have doubts about its continuation. What can we expect for the markets? How is the economy doing and why should investors consider it?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's performance amidst economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy considerations. They navigate through employment growth, GDP, inflation, and inflation expectations, illuminating how these factors influence market sentiment and investor strategies.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Updates on the stock market and what we can expect based on historical trendsThe resilience and growth of the job market contrary to skeptical viewpointsDebunking the myth of part-time employment dominating new job growthThe performance of GDP and GDI and its implications for investorsThe nuances of inflation and its current trajectory in the economyAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese
In a world where technology rapidly reshapes the landscape of industries, disruptive innovation stands at the forefront of this transformation. It challenges the status quo, propels economies forward, and redefines what is possible. As we dive into the minds of those who navigate these territories, we gain invaluable insights into the future of finance, investment, and the global economy.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, to explore the intricacies of disruptive innovation, the significance of technical analysis in investment strategies, and the potential underestimation of GDP growth due to technological advancements. Cathie Wood shares her bullish perspective on Bitcoin and emphasizes the importance of female leadership and coding in the future of finance.Cathie discusses: Her motivation for starting ARK Invest and the unique approach of the firmThe significance of Tesla in the context of artificial intelligence and its competitive advantagesHer perspective on GDP growth expectations and historical technology wavesHer view on Bitcoin as a monetary revolutionThe possibility of introducing more ETFsHer insights on the future of codingHer advice for young women in finance, focusing on knowledge, performance measurement, and staying focused on long-term goalsThe rapid growth and future valuation of disruptive innovation in equity marketsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Cathie Wood: LinkedIn: Cathie WoodX: Cathie WoodWebsite: ARK InvestConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Cathie Wood registered ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2014. With over 40 years of experience identifying and investing in innovation, Cathie founded ARK to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. Through an open approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies, Cathie believes that ARK can identify large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered around DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage, and blockchain technology. As Chief Investment Officer (“CIO”) and Portfolio Manager, Cathie led the development of ARK’s philosophy and investment approach and has ultimate responsibility for investment decisions.Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed over $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded, which in 2000, managed approximately $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates LLC as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. 
"Inflation is on a glide path lower." Neil Dutta from RenMac LLC shares his thoughts with us today on Facts vs Feelings, offering a fresh perspective on the current economic landscape. Despite a rocky start in January, there's a sense of optimism in the air.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group discuss economic insights with Neil Dutta, Head of Economics, RenMac LLC. Neil challenges the consensus on slowing economic growth and dismisses long and variable lags in monetary policy. The trio also explores the role of real-world indicators, the impact of commodity shocks, and the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy. They delve into entrepreneurship, productivity, and the potential of AI in investing.Neil discusses: The economy and fiscal responsesReal-world indicators of economic activityCurrent market conditions and economic indicatorsConcerns about lack of positioning for upside risk scenariosPotential impact of AI on productivity and investingAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comTalking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)Live on Leap Day with Facts vs FeelingsRenMac PodcastConnect with Neil Dutta: Renaissance Macro ResearchLinkedIn: Neil DuttaConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads RenMac’s macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.A business economist with 2 decades of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.In his spare time, Neil tries to entertain his three kids. When he is not at his desk, or with his kids, Neil is traveling somewhere with his wife, Puja. The couple currently resides in New Jersey after spending many years in Brooklyn.
Over the last 20 weeks, we have seen a huge rally in the stock market, led by tech stocks like Nvidia, which has led some to believe that we are in a bubble. Is that true?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into whether the market is truly in a bubble, suggesting that diversification is crucial as earnings growth shows resilience. The conversation also covers interest rates, Japan’s economy, inflation, and the impact of defense spending on the economy, hinting at potential future increases in defense investment.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Whether the current market situation is a bubbleJapan's shift from negative interest rates to 0.1% and its connection to wage growth and inflationPrediction and analysis of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal ReserveCPI, core inflation, shelter impact, and food inflationThe low defense spending and its impact on the economyStrong labor market, income, and consumptionAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese
The market’s changing trends and sentiments play a pivotal role in determining smart investment strategies. When we look at the massive rally the stock market has seen over the last few months, what is expected for the market in the near future?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent market rally and the lack of a buying frenzy, despite all-time highs. They dive into specific stocks and market sentiment, reflecting on lessons from past financial crises and the importance of a long-term perspective. The conversation also covers job reports, interest rate, productivity, and more!Ryan and Sonu discuss: The market rally, impact of magazine covers featuring bullish sentiments, and potential market trendsThe shift in market sentimentThe performance of specific stocks like Nvidia, Super Micro, Tesla, Amazon, Google, and AppleAn analysis of job productivity and the overall economic roundupExplaining the household survey and the unemployment rateAn explanation of the strong productivity and its connection to the labor marketJerome Powell's speech and its impact on the marketThe relationship between gold, real interest rates, and storage costs, and its implications for investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese
As the race to the White House heats up, experts from the financial sector weigh in on the high-stakes implications of the upcoming presidential election.Today on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the upcoming presidential election's potential effects on financial markets with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. They dissect the political landscape's influence on the markets and discuss Joe Biden's likelihood of remaining the Democratic nominee, comparing the current political climate to historical elections. Their conversation also covers pivotal issues that could sway key battleground states, and how re-election campaigns might influence stock market performance. Additionally, they touch on the role of Congress in fiscal policy and the implications for equity and bond markets.Libby discusses:The impact of the upcoming presidential election on financial marketsSignificance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currencyThe government spending deficit and its implicationsThe strength of the US economyPotential nominees for the presidential electionImportance of state polling in critical statesThe impact fiscal policy has on stock market performanceAnd more!The charitable entities and/or fundraising opportunities described herein are not endorsed by, or affiliated with CWM, LLC., or its affiliates. Our philanthropic interests are personal to us and are not reviewed, sponsored, or approved by CWM, LLC.Resources:Donate to St. Judes - Events.stjude.org/leapdayAny questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Libby Cantrill: PIMCOLinkedIn: Libby CantrillConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Ms. Cantrill is head of U.S. public policy and a managing director in PIMCO's portfolio management group. In her role, she analyzes policy and political risk for the firm’s Investment Committee and leads U.S. policymaker engagement and policy strategy for the firm. She also works closely with PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. She has served as a rotating member of the firm’s Executive Committee and is a founding member of PIMCO Families and PIMCO Women. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2007, she served as a legislative aide in the House of Representatives and also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley. She has 19 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and received her undergraduate degree in economics from Brown University. Ms. Cantrill is a CFA charter holder and a regular contributor to Bloomberg and CNBC. She is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and sits on the boards of Covenant House New York and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA").Libby Cantrill is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.
Can NVIDIA sustain its remarkable earnings growth?This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the stock market's current state, with a special focus on NVIDIA's stellar earnings and the market's overall positioning. They discuss their strategic investment preferences, favoring sectors like industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare, while maintaining a neutral stance on technology and communications. They’re optimistic about the market's broad-based expansion and highlight the importance of managing volatility in their diverse portfolio offerings. Additionally, they share personal anecdotes from industry events and reflect on Warren Buffett's investment strategies, emphasizing the significance of buying at fair prices and the use of leverage.Ryan and Sonu discuss: NVIDIA's impressive earnings and financial performanceAnalysis of market performance and concerns about the concentration of gainsOverweight stance on equities and preference for sectors such as industrials, financials, energy, and healthcareEmphasis on sector rotation and overweight position in small and mid-cap stocksOptimism about broad-based expansion and GDP growthImportance of managing volatility in investment portfoliosImportance of diversification in the bond market and defensive market strategiesWarren Buffett's investment strategies and leverage utilizationAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
We are confronted with a key question as we deal with economic downshifts and market swings.Does the latest data really reflect an economic slowdown?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze various indicators to assess the pace of economic growth, including market performance, inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and trends in retail sales and industrial production. Additionally, they explore the impact of younger generations on historical progress and provide insights into GDP growth and income trends, offering a comprehensive economic check-up.Ryan and Sonu discuss: An analysis of the stock market's performance, focusing on small and mid-cap stocksYearly market trends, corrections, and the Valentine's Day indicatorLarry Summers' predictions and their significance in the marketDifferent inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and their relevance in assessing inflation trendsRecent inflation trends and the potential impact on Fed rate cuts and market expectationsAn analysis of retail sales and industrial production dataThe current economic slowdown and comparison with previous yearsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Join the Live on Leap Day with Facts vs Feelings!Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
Bitcoin ETFs are one of the most anticipated and debated developments in the crypto space. What are the implications for the market, the economy, and crypto's future? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, speak with Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management about the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, offering a new investment avenue. They explore Bitcoin's role as an asset class or currency within traditional portfolios. Ryan and Sonu also cover the CPI data, its implications for inflation, and market expectations.Listen to the episode to learn about:The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dataThe stock market’s performance, historical seasonality, and the likelihood of a market pullbackThe increase in household net worth and credit card debt, highlighting the overall financial situation of consumersThe significance of Bitcoin ETF approval and its impact on financial advisors and investorsFund flows from GBTC to new Bitcoin ETFsAdding Bitcoin to portfolios, its historical returns, volatility, and the potential benefits for investorsThe likelihood of Ethereum ETFsShort-term and long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s valueAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Matthew Hougan: LinkedIn: Matthew HouganX: Matt Hougan Bitwise Asset ManagementConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Matt Hougan is a well-known expert in the fields of cryptocurrency, ETFs, and financial technology. He currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which is the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds and manages over $1.5 billion in assets.Before this, he was the CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs. During his tenure, he played a key role in developing the world's first ETF data and analytics system, the most popular ETF media platform, and the world's largest ETF conference.Matt serves as a board member for Equbot and is also a strategic advisor to several startups related to cryptocurrency and financial advising, such as Blockworks, Stratifi, and Exchange. He co-founded Advisor Circle, which is a product and content studio for the financial industry and also created the Futureproof Wealth Festival.
From the stock market hitting all-time highs to new tax bills, positive economic indicators, and even the Super Bowl, there's a lot to keep track of when it comes to finance and investing this week!In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, provide an in-depth analysis of current economic indicators, including jobs, productivity, and consumer confidence. They also touch on the potential for a stock market breather in February amidst election buzz. Additionally, they examine a new tax bill that could inject more money into the economy and give the stock market a boost. Ryan and Sonu discuss: The stock market hitting all-time highs, historical February performance, and potential market consolidationA bipartisan tax bill moving through Congress and its potential impact on business and individual financesAn analysis of the Super Bowl indicator and its historical correlation with stock market performanceThe Fed's approach to potential rate cuts and market expectationsA comparison of income-driven and credit-driven economic cycles and their impacts on the economyAn analysis of the strong job market report and consumer confidence dataThe importance of productivity in driving positive economic outcomes And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations. But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including the stock market's highs and the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting. They explore the significance of January's market performance, particularly in the financial sector, as an indicator for the year's outlook. Additionally, they cover the recent GDP report, offering insights into the economy's trajectory.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The positive implications of the market making new highs and its historical performancePotential factors that could disrupt the bullish market trajectoryThe significance of January performance and its potential impact on the market for the rest of the yearForecasting the Fed’s decision and its potential impact on the marketThe strong fourth quarter GDP growth, consumption, and investment spending, and its implications on the economyComparison of nominal GDP growth in the US and ChinaAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Facts Vs. Feelings Ep. 69 - Can You Take Me HigherConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect?Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's recent all-time highs and their implications for investors. They also cover the importance of manufacturing and high-tech industries for the economy. Additionally, they examine global economic factors, including China's influence on markets and the comparative strengths of the US economy.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Historical data on all-time highs, patterns of all-time highs over the years, and the likelihood of continued all-time highsAnalysis of the increase in consumer confidenceAn analysis of retail salesThe importance of manufacturing for the economy, including high-paying jobs and the impact on supply chainsThe positive trends in high-tech production and its impact on the economyThe impact of Taiwan Semiconductor's growth on the semiconductor market and its implications for investorsThe impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock markets, particularly in Taiwan and ChinaThe impact of China's economic slowdown on global marketsA Comparison of the growth rates of the US and China economiesThe potential momentum in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of GDP growthAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil pricesThe recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on ChinaThe drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approvalAn analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the FedThe significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economyThe male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levelsThe beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectorsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gainsThe main drivers to avoid a recessionThe current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growthProductivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economyThe outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and constructionThe market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election yearsThe strength in small and mid-cap stocksAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Market trends and potential outlook for 2024Factors contributing to the recent market rallyPerformance of small and mid-cap stocksThe significance of small-cap industriesEarly versus late economic cycle indicatorsImpact of inflation and rate cuts on market performanceForecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024Likelihood of positive returns in the marketThe importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research. They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.Together they discuss: Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approachWhether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence aheadThe chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this riskThe political implications for the Fed's decision-making processThe importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provideThe historical market performance during presidential election yearsThe potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocksJerome Powell's performance as the Fed ChairThe favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming yearAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ed Clissold: Twitter: @edclissoldLinkedIn: Ed ClissoldNed Davis Research Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles. Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co. 
The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties. One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbersThe significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed workerThe recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflationThe current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the futureWhy small caps and mid-caps have been outperformingThe positive stock market indicatorsAn anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI reportAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolioAn analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a monthQuotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investingThe Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expectedThe strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectorsAn Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and householdsThe sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trendsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors. Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullishThe S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the marketThe broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rallyBlack Friday sales and statisticsConsumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID timesWhy the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing marketA speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
The Sahm Rule is an indicator that detects recessions in real-time based on changes in the unemployment rate. This rule was proposed by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and a leading expert on macroeconomic policy.Today, we learn about the Sahm Rule and more!In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Claudia Sahm, Independent Macroeconomist Consultant, about the Sahm Rule, unemployment, and the current economic landscape. They explore the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from Claudia's time at the Federal Reserve.They discuss: The origin of the Sahm Rule and its purpose as an indicator of recession based on the national unemployment rateThe mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobsThe importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index The current situation of low unemployment and strong wage growthInsights on the Federal Reserve's hiking and cutting policiesThe potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investmentsThe biggest macroeconomic surprise for 2024The poor sentiment despite the economy performing wellAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Claudia Sahm: LinkedIn: Claudia SahmTwitter (X): @Claudia_SahmSubstack: Claudia SahmConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Claudia Sahm is an economist, formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She is best known for the development of the Sahm Rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data indicator for identifying recessions.
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