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Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.
In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.
The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.
The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.
The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.
The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."
In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.
The Supreme Court Episode

The Supreme Court Episode


With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.
The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.
The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.
The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.
Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.
The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.
The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.
The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.
The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.
Comments (473)

Rick Patton

There is no "right" to abortion any more than there is a "right" to spank your children. Some localities allow it by law, and some don't. An outlet that is predicated on objective, statistical analysis should not be using this kind of shamelessly-biased language.

Aug 3rd
Reply (128)

majid Mp

Thank you 4 ur great post. Is it possible for you to share the transcript?

Jul 10th

Andrew Browne

Always good to hear the DNC perspective.

Jun 7th


Excellent guest!

May 27th

Darshan Roy

This was phenomenal.

May 13th

Paul Miailovich

"let's *#& this puppy" is not something they say in America. I did, however, hear it on occasion when I lived in Australia. Mind you, this was over 20 years ago, so they might not say it there anymore either.

Feb 10th
Reply (1)

Ryan Persaud

There are so many issues with this lady's arguments, and I applaud Galen for challenging her. Citing Ukraine as a "liberal democracy" that got into civil war had me floored (really grasping for examples there). Or, that she constantly repeats the meme that Republicans are all white people, despite the polling and data clearly showing they're getting MORE, not less diverse. It sounds like the sort of alarmism meant to compel Democrats to vote more than a serious academic pursuit. Which is fine, just be transparent, damn.

Jan 24th

JT O'Connor

Good on you Galen for challenging the reductive views your guest offered.

Jan 19th
Reply (1)

Joshua Collins

Could at least have interviewed Robert Evans since he's been covering this specific topic since early 2019

Jan 13th

Andrew Browne

trying to talk up Dem position, situation normal

Jan 11th

Will Crowley

Silver is a degenerate racist, equating remote schooling during the pandemic with the devastation we caused in Iraq. I listened for years, but no more.

Jan 6th

Josh Smith

wow this was a spicy interview about horse race pills!

Nov 19th

Paul Bass

WOW. delete.

Oct 25th


Want to actually gain the trust of these people as a journalist? Maybe don't laugh every time you bring up a conspiracy theory they believe. You have to be learn how to talk to people, even if they are crazy. This entire interview wreaks of elitism and arrogance. You definitely didn't change any minds.

Jul 9th


Yang please 😁

Jun 22nd

herbsta magus

Thr death penalty is ineffective barbaric nonsense. You have a lack of empathy and critical thinking skills if you believe in killing people as a perverse form of 'justice'.

Jun 8th


Yang is clearly the best shot New York (& America) has. Read "The War on Normal People".

Jun 5th

Greg Moore

The audio keeps skipping back on this episode.

May 25th


It's gotten harder and harder to listen to this podcast since Clare left. She at least could play devils advocate and keep the show grounded. I used to really look forward to it each week, but more. Add another show to the echo chamber that is political reporting in the US.

May 18th

A Turner

I listen faithfully and love the team commentary, but I'm gonna miss Perry on the team SO MUCH! Best of luck in your future enedeavors!

May 3rd
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