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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Author: ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke

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The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

848 Episodes
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Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok, maintain the status quo or even consider banning social media altogether. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of polling.” -- Sponsor Message: Secure your privacy with Surfshark! Enter coupon code FIVE38 for an extra 3 months free at https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court regarding in vitro fertilization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a "good or bad use of polling?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the upcoming South Carolina primary race, and ask whether a recent poll of political scientists intending to create a ranking of American presidents was a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior? Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he campaigns for the White House. Law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss some of the recent developments in each of the cases and what to expect next. Last week, the judge in the New York hush money case ruled that the trial will begin March 25, meaning it’s now expected to be the first of Trump's cases to be tried. Also, Fulton County DA Fani Willis testified in a hearing to dismiss her from the Georgia election case; the defendants are pushing to have her disqualified on the basis of an alleged conflict of interest. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the most high profile special election this year. They also look at Americans' perceptions of President Joe Biden's age, after a special counsel report described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and they talk about what comes next in the politics of border security. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break them, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games already created new fans among young women? Some have used polling to suggest it has, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask "good or bad use of polling?" The crew also looks at some of the minor primary contests between now and the South Carolina Republican presidential primary and spotlights the biggest takeaways from last quarter's campaign fundraising numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal. A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we headed? And what does all of that mean for November 2024? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Neale Mahoney, economics professor at Stanford University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen is joined by G. Elliott Morris, 538’s director of data analytics, to uncover more about how 538's pollster ratings are determined and reveal what are the best pollsters in America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Comments (417)

Miles Greb

very disappointing eposide. no expertise and no understanding of the actual arguments. glib

Mar 22nd
Reply

Andrew Browne

Needs a non Democratic view on the show.

Jan 30th
Reply

Kristin Sulap

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Jan 27th
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Gina Ruzicka

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Jan 18th
Reply

David

Had to stop after 6 minutes, there is no value in listening to people making no sense

Nov 24th
Reply

Nick D

can't make it through the episode, I feel dumber every minute I keep listening. I'm sure they mean well 😂

Nov 21st
Reply (1)

Anthony Kelsick

A governor, two former governors, a senator and a runny nosed kid who thought he was still in the school yard playing the 'dozens'. Even though he may make the next debate, he's essentially done.

Nov 10th
Reply

Kait M

Kennedy is not an "Anti Vaxxer" he's anti lies and heavy metals involved in vaccines. Please don't perpetuate lies or ignorance regardless of whether he's running for president or not...you are better than spreading misinformation.

Aug 3rd
Reply

Josh Smith

three people claim "stop talking about him" while talking about him continuously for 45 minutes lol

Jul 7th
Reply

Gail G

excellent overview!

Jun 8th
Reply

Terry Watson

This sounds very familiar... pretty sure we heard this song and dance before...

Mar 14th
Reply

km

Yang please.

Feb 7th
Reply

Christopher Peterson

This was a good one.

Nov 27th
Reply

Nick D

uncensored f*** at 53:57?

Oct 29th
Reply (1)

Darcie Harris

I'm one of those people who moved, in large part, for political reasons. After 35 years as a lonely Democrat in Oklahoma, I moved back to California, where I grew up. I'd been very politically active since 2000, and just got tired of losing. Little did I know that Orange County, where I moved was almost as conservative as Oklahoma. But we turned OC blue in 2018! There is still work to do, but I definitely found my tribe.

Oct 18th
Reply

Nick D

is this just a repost of last week's model talk?

Oct 3rd
Reply

INFJayo

Just heard your question about run-offs in the South. I didn’t know the answer either… Another example of the structural racism & Jim Crow energy baked into our institutions. I just wanted to say your response was so gracious. Wypipo are wrong about there being no “right” thing to say. Thanks for being uncomfortable & moving on without white fragility & hysteria.

Sep 12th
Reply

Rick Patton

There is no "right" to abortion any more than there is a "right" to spank your children. Some localities allow it by law, and some don't. An outlet that is predicated on objective, statistical analysis should not be using this kind of shamelessly-biased language.

Aug 3rd
Reply (54)

majid Mp

Thank you 4 ur great post. Is it possible for you to share the transcript?

Jul 10th
Reply

Andrew Browne

Always good to hear the DNC perspective.

Jun 7th
Reply
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