Odd Lots

Over the last year or so, probably every venture capitalist has become interested in artificial intelligence. So people are still figuring out what types of business models actually work, and who will end up making money in the space. Josh Wolfe has been at it for a long time. As a co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, he's been involved in a number of deals in the space, and is already looking at what's next after the wave of excitement for chatbots since ChatGPT was released. On this episode, we talk to Josh about what he's excited about right now, including robotics, biotech, and maintenance. He tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of 2023, there was a lot of optimism that the US economy was on that glide path to a soft landing. But at least in the first quarter of this year, inflation has come in hotter than expected. So is this just a speedbump on the way back down to 2%? Or is this a new trajectory for inflation that will make the Federal Reserve rethink its existing approach? On this bonus episode of Odd Lots, we caught up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in Mount Airy, North Carolina, to get his assessment of the latest data, and what it means for policy. He explains why he thinks policy is still restrictive, and why he doesn’t see evidence yet of overheating demand.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On June 2, 2024, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a successor to current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. His chosen successor, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, is the odds-on favorite. But what is AMLO’s legacy exactly? In some sense, economic growth under his administration has been robust. On the other hand, there’s been very little progress on domestic security. He also leaves a legacy of massive spending routed through the military, whose fruits are still undetermined. On this episode, we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Andrea Navarro, who has dug deep into how AMLO has conducted economic policy, his approach to industrial and fiscal policy, and whether Mexico is now in a position to ride the ongoing wave of trade with the US and the nearshoring of international supply chains.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last few years, users of the popular ADHD drug Adderall have been frustrated by regular shortages in getting their prescriptions filled. Various regulatory and supply chain factors have contributed to the inability of producers to keep up with demand. But this raises the question: why is there so much demand in the first place? How did a significant chunk of the labor force -- from tech workers to Wall Streeters -- begin using the drug as an aid for their work and everyday lives? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Danielle Carr, an assistant professor at the Institute for Society and Genetics at UCLA, who studies the history of politics of neuroscience and psychology. We discuss the history of this medicine and related medicines, what it does for the people who take it, and how market forces opened the drug up to almost anyone.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years and years, utilities in the US haven't seen much growth in electricity demand. The economy is generally mature and has been able to grow even without needing much more electrical power. But all that's changing now and a big contributing factor is the boom in datacenter demand. It's particularly acute for AI datacenters, which need more power than traditional datacenters, and are growing like crazy ever since ChatGPT brought generative AI to everyone's collective consciousness. So how will utilities handle the sudden surge in load growth? On this episode, we speak with Brian Janous, co-founder and chief strategy officer at Cloverleaf Infrastructure. Brian spent 12 years at Microsoft, where he was the company's first ever energy-focused hire, so he has seen the rise of datacenter electricity consumption first hand, and how AI is kicking it up even further. He now works alongside utilities to figure out how they'll meet this growing demand. We talk about how there's likely to be more gas plants being built, how datacenters and utilities can get more energy out of existing infrastructure, the politics of AI datacenters, and what this all means for the net-zero commitments of major tech companies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The audio companion to Bloomberg Opinion’s beloved Money Stuff column hosted by its author Matt Levine, “whose deadpan style mixes technical elucidation and wit” (NY Times). Once a week, Matt and his friend, Bloomberg News reporter and TV host, Katie Greifeld talk about Wall Street, finance and…other stuff. New episodes every Friday. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2021 and 2022, the US economy experienced historic shortages of many different goods. All kinds of consumer, construction, and high-tech components were tough to come by. Since then, most of these shortages have eased or gone away, but there is one category that is still struggling to meet demand: electrical components. Years after the height of the pandemic squeeze, there are still complaints about missing transformers and switchgears, which are crucial for connecting new construction developments to the power grid. So what's going on and how much is this shortage messing up economic activity? On this episode, we speak with commercial real estate developer Chris Hatch, partner at Forza Development, about how the situation is hurting his business. He talks about projects that are entirely finished — except for this one necessary component. We walk through the causes of the problem and how costly the delays are proving to be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 A bunch of companies saw their share prices boom during the pandemic. Peloton surged because no one could go to gyms. Zoom jumped because no one could go to the office, and so on. Since then, many of these companies have come crashing down back down to earth. However, one pandemic winner that has yet to see its stock price mean-revert is Tractor Supply Co. Its shares have been up about 270% since their 2020 lows. The retailer has ridden a demographic and cultural shift as more Millennials move away from cities and decide to become hobby farmers growing their own chickens, vegetables, and fruit. In this episode, we speak with CEO Hal Lawton about the Tractor Supply business model, including how it's bucked the post-pandemic pattern and what it's doing to lock in customers for the long term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US imports from Mexico are surging. Former President Trump's tariffs on China, as well as the renegotiated USMCA treaty, have encouraged supply chains to move to North America. Then Covid hit, and that re-energized interest in "nearshoring" or "friendshoring" as an alternative to China. So how much further can US-Mexico trade go? What kinds of goods are being imported from Mexico? And how does the trade boom interact with Mexico's shaky security situation? On this episode we speak with Matt Silver, the CEO and co-founder of Cargado, which is building technology to facilitate cross-border freight. Silver, a former freight broker with a long history of doing business in Mexico, talks to us about what he's seeing on the ground, who's investing, plus the extraordinarily complicated process of getting goods across the border.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steve Eisman became a famous name in the investing world due to his prescient bet against the US housing market before 2008, which led to his starring role in Michael Lewis' book The Big Short. These days his investing approach looks a little bit more conventional in his role as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. But he still has big ideas. These days he sees three dominant macro stories for investors: AI, infrastructure and crypto. The last one he just fundamentally rejects. The first two, however, he sees as tailwinds that can potentially last a long time. He's been looking for companies that can capitalize on trends like nearshoring, the Inflation Reduction Act, and power-hungry datacenters. In this episode show, we he discusses where we are in this big cycle. He also tells us about his love of comic books, and what he sees as the core problem with the Marvel franchise. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Savita Subramanian, head of US equity strategy at Bank of America, raised her outlook for stocks at the end of last year, there was a lot of skepticism that equities could go any higher. The S&P 500 had already surged on expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates in 2024. And investors were very excited about AI. Then, in early March, she increased her year-end target for the S&P 500 even further, going from 5,000 to 5,400. Fast forward to the start of April, and the rally has continued even as markets ratcheted down their expectations for rate cuts this year. Of course, there are questions about whether investors are getting ahead of themselves and whether things are starting to feel a little frothy. In this episode, Subramanian explains why she thinks stocks can go up even further from here, how she's thinking about valuations, and why we shouldn't be too worried just yet about a repeat of the early 2000s internet bubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to the collapse in office real estate, there's a lot of focus on who owns the debt, and what kind of pain must eventually be realized by someone. But there may be an even deeper challenge for big cities like New York or San Francisco. Office buildings, and the various restaurants and shops that cater to daily workers, are big contributors to the tax base of many cities. What happens if that goes into decline? In theory, you can get a doom loop of population loss leading to lower activity, leading to lower taxes, leading to lower spending, leading to worse public service, leading to more population loss and on and on it goes. So is that still a risk in 2024? On this episode we speak with Arpit Gupta, associate professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who has been tracking this risk for awhile. He gives an update on where things stand and why some of the pain may still be possible in the future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The cost of cocoa beans has surged to a record $10,000 per metric ton. That's expected to make chocolate more expensive for millions of confectionary fans around the world. But why have prices more than doubled in the past few months alone? And what could halt the surge? We speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Odd Lots favorite Javier Blas. He describes how a combination of chronic underinvestment in cocoa supply has run head first into financial markets to squeeze prices higher.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Walk into a grocery store today and there are seemingly endless shelves of product to choose from. But behind all those different options are a handful of agricultural giants that have grown to dominate the food industry. Companies like Walmart and Cargill are well-known at this point, but there are also dominant players in everything from berries to dairy to pig farming. In this episode, we speak with Austin Frerick, an antitrust and agricultural expert. His new book, Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry, details the behemoths behind American agriculture and how they got so big. He talks about the choices that went into our current agricultural system, the impact of all that concentration, and what can be done to change it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On March 26th, a massive container ship called the Dali ploughed into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major overpass just outside the city's port. The collision caused the bridge to dramatically collapse, sparked a search and rescue mission for survivors. It also cut off a busy shipping lane in and out of the Port of Baltimore. So what do we know about the collision? And what could the impacts of the latest maritime disaster actually be? On this emergency episode of Odd Lots, we speak to Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of the What Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube, about what we know so far.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI is an incredibly exciting space, provoking both great wonder and fear. One of the big worries obviously is: What will happen to everyone's job? Will it make more people's livelihoods obsolete, causing even greater inequality than we have now? On this episode, we speak with an economist who argues that this concern is not just misplaced, but exactly wrong. MIT's David Autor, famous for his work on the China shock, contends that the last 40 years of advances in computer technology have been a major driver of inequality, but AI should be seen as an entirely different paradigm. He argues that human work, aided by AI, will remove the premium captured by extremely high-paid, experienced professionals (like doctors or top lawyers) as their capabilities become more diffuse. He also discusses what policy choices the government should be making to improve the odds that AI will prove societally beneficial.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, we spoke with Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, about where stress was building in the $20 trillion market for commercial real estate. Fast forward to today and the doomsday scenario in commercial real estate just hasn't played out like a lot of people thought it would. Defaults have increased, but they aren't disastrous. And some measures of CRE have even been rallying in recent months. So what's driving this surprising resilience? Hill sees it as a 'prisoner's dilemma' where lenders and borrowers have agreed to amend and extend loans in order to both benefit and buy some time. But how long can that continue? And what does the CRE market need to see in order to mount a durable recovery?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent years, we've seen home insurance premiums soar by historic amounts. Not only have prices gone up, but in some instances, we've seen national carriers simply announce that they're abandoning certain states. So, what's behind the mess? Why isn't competition causing markets to come into balance? What is the role of state insurance regulators? On this episode we speak with two guests who help us understand the problem. Amias Gerety is a partner at QED Investors, and a board member for the insurance company Kin. RJ Lehmann is the editor-in-chief for the International Center for Law & Economics. The two of them discuss insurance from both the financial side and the regulatory side. They explain where things have gone wrong and the prospects for market stabilization.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US took a number of extraordinary steps to cut Moscow out of the international financial system. The country immediately was hit with a slew of sanctions. It was cut off from the SWIFT payment system and it even had its dollar reserves seized. Prior to that, in 2021, the US took the rare step of seizing dollar reserves from Afghanistan's central bank after the Taliban's re-emergence to power. So how does the US control who gets to hold and transact in US dollars? Where did this power come from? What are the limits to the US policing of its own currency? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Senior Reporter Saleha Mohsin, author of the new book, Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order. We discuss the buildup of this tremendous financial power and also what it means for the dollar's status as a reserve currency going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.