Optimist Economy

It wasn’t just hourly factory jobs that were supposed to come with a 40-hour workweek. Even salaried jobs were supposed to get overtime pay, though very few do do anymore. Overtime protections are the only legal mechanism enforcing work-hour limits, and for 50 years, the salary threshold that determines who qualifies to receive overtime has been left to erode. Employers found another workaround too: just call the sandwich maker a "sandwich manager." Now, the new no-tax-on-overtime deduction isn't protecting workers — it's rewarding the kind of overwork it was overtime was originally designed to punish. Fixing the law governing overtime would be a huge and instant boost not just to the U.S. economy, but to our work-life balance.Chapters:00:01:43 Announcements00:02:32 Retcon: Economic data reliability00:05:54 Terms & Conditions: Tenterhooks; Perquisite 00:08:23 Big Pilcrow: Overtime 00:45:27 Executive Orders: Badge of shame for working past 40 hours; more colorful cars00:46:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Awesome first bosses; Faraday e-bike Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch clips on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Cash is dirty, inconvenient, and so last century. Some 70% of Americans under age 50 think its days are numbered. But we still need those greenbacks, if as an alternative to banks. More than 4% of households are “unbanked,” and three times as many are “underbanked,” meaning bank services mostly don’t work for them, so rely on services like check cashers or payday lenders. And that's before you get to the racial disparities in who banks approve for credit. Reviving banking services at the post office might be one way to help the unbanked and keep from handing yet more power to the finance sector. Chapters:00:00:48 Announcements00:02:30  Retcon: Semiquincentennia 00:03:35 Terms & Conditions: ChexSystems, Unbanked00:05:46  Big Pilcrow: What’s keeping the U.S. from going cashless?00:38:28  Executive Orders: Regulate youth sports schedules; Airline baggage fees by weight.00:40:56  Spiritual Sponsors: Artemis splashdown; Friends with season tickets. Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips available at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. You can also search for us on Facebook and chat with other Optimists on Substack. Consume leisure while donning Optimist merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Have a questions for our next Q&A? Send it to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Jobs aren't being added. Prices keep climbing. GDP barely grew at the end of 2025, and a ‘meh’ 2% last quarter. Shouldn’t this be a recession? Not so far. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards walks through the clear cause of each bad number: Tariffs explain the prices and foul mood. Mass deportations explain the jobs. The government shutdown explained last quarter. Still, knowing the passing reasons for economic pain doesn't make it hurt less. And none of it changes the long-term economic reforms we still need.Chapters: 00:01:06 Announcements00:01:57 Retcon: Wealth at retirement00:03:52 Terms & Conditions: Recession, Slack, Tight, Loose, Goodflation/Badflation00:09:10 Centerpiece: What is going on with the U.S. Economy right now? The vibe is don’t panic. But don’t not panic. 00:53:38 Executive Orders: Free work parking. Legislators do their own taxes.00:55:00 Spiritual Sponsors: Genre-specific bookstores and great newstands Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Hey, we are on Facebook! Follow us! Or,  on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. You need this hat: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send us your economic questions and concerns at optimist.economy@gmail.com

(Originally aired 5/06/25) What sparks progress? The right political conditions? Social pressure? Economic upheaval? In response to two listeners’ questions, we say… both none of those and all of the above. As an example, we talk through just one bit of the New Deal in the 1930s, which was the law to limit child labor. That movement started decades earlier, and continued decades afterward. For those keeping score at home, this a sneaky third installment of Kathryn’s 68-part series on the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. Chapters: 00:01:08 Announcements00:01:43 Retcon00:03:58 Terms & Conditions00:07:03 Centerpiece00:42:56 Executive Orders00:46:25 Spiritual Sponsors Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Shirts, caps and totes, oh my!: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at optimist.economy@gmail.com

Average U.S. wages have barely budged since the early '80s — and if you account for today's labor force being older and more college-educated, wage growth basically disappears. Economists have cycled through explanations: workers lacked technical skills, then couldn't compete with global labor, then lost the policies that once lifted paychecks, like strong unions and a meaningful minimum wage. The latest chapter is monopsony — the idea that as employers consolidate, people have fewer choices of where to work, and fewer places to land if they lose a job. Fix the market, and the paychecks follow.Chapters:00:00:45 Announcements00:01:01  Retcon: Double Taxation and Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act00:03:10 Terms & Conditions: Monopsony, Septel00:07:07  Big Pilcrow: Why Aren’t Wages Growing?00:40:37  Executive Orders: Reverse Billing, Leaked Chat Table Readings00:42:49  Spiritual Sponsors: Dole Whip, Sad Songs, Being Recognized in the Wild Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Andy says look at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Get that excellent hat at: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic anxieties, executive orders or spiritual sponsors? Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

From California to Washington to New York, states are trying to tax the very rich. The press keeps rehashing whether millionaires and billionaires will flee those states. Wrong question. The more important one is why we’re improvising tax policy state to state when it’s the federal government that should be dealing with health care, child care and affordability—all of which are national problems. Meanwhile, some Senate Democrats are proposing to take even more people out of the tax system entirely. None of these specific proposals make income taxes simpler or fairer, but they do suggest there’s an appetite for reform. ---Chapters:00:01:18 Announcements00:02:33 Retcon: Occupational Licenses00:06:16 Terms & Conditions: Progressive00:07:59  Big Pilcrow: Everyone Wants to Tax Millionaires00:38:23  Executive Orders: Unreadable Menus and Tax Complainer Merch00:41:42  Spiritual Sponsors: Dream Robin & the Nobel Laureate’s WNBA Contract Make Optimist Economy economically viable: https://optimisteconomy.com We have faces on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  The party is at the Substack chatroom. In lieu of a “I’m better than you… because I pay taxes” T-shirt, can we offer you an Optimist Economy one?: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economics questions, anxieties, or executive orders? Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Americans used to move a lot in search of opportunity. But in 2024, the share of Americans who moved at all hit a 76-year low. Barely 2% of us moved across state lines. Some of that is by choice: people are more rooted, and that's not nothing. But when workers stop moving, rich cities pull further away from poor ones, wages stagnate, and the gaps between thriving labor markets and struggling ones get harder to close. And when there’s a shock to a local labor market, moving is an important release valve. Fixing a fraction of this worker mobility breakdown could improve the labor market for everyone.Chapters:00:00:33  Opening00:01:45  Retcon: Trump Accounts & Career Pivots00:07:27  Terms & Conditions: Spatial Equilibrium00:09:55  Big Pilcrow: Does it Matter to the U.S. Economy if We Don’t Move from Place to Place?00:39:10  Executive Orders: Frances Perkins miniseries; Sleep Shaming; Election Day Weekend00:43:07  Spiritual Sponsors: The National Consumers League motto ("Investigate, Agitate, Legislate"); ACFC’s winning startREAD MORE:The increasingly mobile US is a myth that needs to move on | Aeon EssaysWho Moves? Who Stays Put? Where’s Home? | Pew Research CenterJob Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States | Demography | Duke University PressThe Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy QuestionsPopulation & Migration | Economic Research ServiceStranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind Invest in Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Faces visible on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Where’s the party? On our Substack chat. Represent your optimist side: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Email your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Fourteen questions. Zero softballs. Listeners from Tacoma to Montreal wrote in to ask about retirement savings, taxing capital gains, home-buyer assistance programs, corporate profits in the tariffs era, what one state employee can or cannot accomplish, and whether meaningful economic reform will arrive before Millennials drop dead. And more. The inbox did not disappoint. 00:00 Announcements01:59  Is a retirement savings crisis brewing? 04:32  Tax credits for first-time home buyers… good idea?08:10  What if tax breaks for capital gains only applied to new investments?13:39  Explain the $1,700 tax credit scholarship program in OBBA?16:23  Are institutional investors wrecking the housing market?21:37  What quick policy moves could reverse worsening inequality?27:32  Will meaningful reform arrive before Millennials retire?30:56  Is a hotel tax the right way to fund a stadium?33:05  Can I move the needle on labor policy from inside the system?35:08  Why has the responsibility and risk for employment shifted onto workers?37:50  Is fixing the care economy easier than we think?40:47  Do rent caps work?44:50  Can we prevent price gouging by companies?47:53  If states roll out good policies, does the federal government need to do it too? Still have questions, concerns, or worries?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com Keep Optimist Economy podcasting: https://optimisteconomy.com See our faces on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Commune with fellow Optimists on our Substack chat. We’re on  Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  There’s a t-shirt in your size here.https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy

The corporate income tax rate got hacked nearly in half by the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act. So nine years later, how’s that working out? Corporations’ effective tax rate (about 9%) is lower than what the average American household pays (about 14.5%). After-tax corporate profits have hit record highs for the last four years — about 9% of GDP, a figure not hit since 1929. Workers' share of total national income, by contrast, is at a 70-year low. If corporate taxes go back up, some companies may threaten to reincorporate somewhere cheaper. Call that bluff. Someone else will deliver the toilet paper and make the coffee. Donate to keep Optimist Economy going: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips are on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Consume leisure with us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or meet other Optimists on our Substack chat. Feel like dis-saving? Our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Switchboard operators. Typists. Secretaries. Lots of factory workers. The economy has a long history of technology slowly eliminating not just jobs but entire occupations. The U.S. also has a long history of not doing a lot to help those thrown out of work by major economic shifts. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards, who literally wrote her dissertation on unemployment insurance (her professional assessment: "it sucks"), makes the case for a wholesale rebuild that triages joblessness, distinguishing between those who need time to job hunt and those who need to pivot to a new career.  Donate to keep Optimist Economy going: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips are on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Consume leisure with us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or meet other Optimists on our Substack chat. Feel like dis-saving? Our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

The popular narrative is that baby boomers rode cheap houses and 401(k)s to wealth, dismantled the welfare state behind them, and left everyone else to fight over scraps. But conflating boomers and conservatives lets the latter off the hook for 25 years of tax cuts and disinvestment in children. It erases the Black boomers, poor boomers, and pensionless workers who never got a slice of that wealth. And it lays the groundwork for the one policy outcome its loudest advocates actually want: gutting Social Security. Who really benefits when you decide your parents' generation is the enemy? Support Optimist Economy by donating: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips are on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or meet other Optimists on our Substack chat. Optimist merch provides great utility: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

“Trump Accounts” might evoke the president’s other side hustles, like gold-plated mobile phones or meme crypto coins. But these investment accounts for children are one of the actually beautiful things to come out of the "One Big Beautiful Bill." More than 30 years in the making, these accounts have previously been pitched as KidSave, Baby Bonds, the ASPIRE Act, 401Kids. They’ve been proposed more than a dozen times by Democrats and Republicans alike. Economist Kathryn Edwards explains the long journey, what the research says about why auto-enrollment is everything, and why the name won't last but the policy should.Read more:Every child deserves a Trump Account: Here’s how to make it happen Op-ed by Ray Boshara and Michael Sherraden in The Hill [2026].“Check-the-Box” Enrollment Will Limit Participation in Trump Accounts: Lessons From Asset-Building Research — Center for Social Development at Washington University [2025]Why Automatic Enrollment Is Essential for the Success of Trump Accounts: Lessons from SEED OK — Center for Social Development at Washington University [2025]The (Unknown) Children’s Savings Accounts Federal Policy Landscape — Center for Social Development, Washington University in St. Louis [2024] Support Optimist Economy by donating: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips are on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or meet other Optimists on our Substack chat. Optimist merch provides great utility: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards is a Social Security fan girl. Would it be possible for her to love it even more? Yes, if the old-age insurance program got some updates to handle the messy, gradual and interrupted way that retirement truly transpires. Her four blue-sky pitches: changing benefit calculations for caregivers, taking benefits temporarily, a sliding “full” retirement age based on years worked, and a tax on companies that abuse 1099 non-employee compensation. Plus: A big retcon segment including details from a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that further explains why "more supply" isn't the whole answer to the housing affordability crisis. Support Optimist Economy by donating: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips are on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or meet other Optimists on our Substack chat. Optimist merch provides great utility: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

The Federal Reserve is in the news constantly these days. Beyond the regular will-they-or-won’t-they question on interest rates, there are multiple legal battles with implications for the central bank’s independence, President Trump’s nominee for chairman may (or may not) get a hearing in the Senate soon, and Jerome Powell's may (or may not) leave when his term as chair ends in May. So let’s try to demystify the Fed. How does it stop bank panics? How did it make the Great Depression worse? What is a Fed Note exactly? And is the discount window a metaphor? From Glass-Steagall to the dual mandate to quantitative easing, here’s a crash course. Watch video clips from this episode at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Chat with Optimists on our Substack chat. Consume leisure in an Optimist hat or shirt: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Support us and our tireless editors and producers by donating: https://optimisteconomy.com And send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Recent polls show 54% now consider housing unaffordable and the cost of homeownership dominates Americans’ economic anxieties. The popular “abundance” narrative says there’s a housing shortage and suggests cutting zoning or environmental rules will let us build our way out of it. But we don’t have  a simple net shortage of units—we have a deep mismatch between what gets built and what workers get paid. After 50 years of wage stagnation, the median mortgage payment is over $2,200 while median weekly earnings are $1,200. That’s a gap deregulation or more luxury condos won’t close. The solution isn’t to just build more. It’s also to pay people more.END NOTES: To be considered affordable (30% of income) the median mortgage of $2,259 would require weekly earnings of $1,737. But the median weekly wage for full-time workers is $1214.  Where is the Housing Shortage? Of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas, only four experienced a housing shortage between 2000 and 2020. (Op-ed from the author in Barron’s here.) The US Housing Crisis is Really About Low-Wage Jobs. Kathryn’s take from 2024 in Bloomberg Opinion. Rate of U.S. homeownership has been climbing since bottoming out in 2016 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income is about what it was in 2019 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States shot up about $90,000 from 2019 to 2025 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Housing Affordability and Housing Demand (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) Watch video clips from this episode at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Read some stuff on our Substack.Consume leisure in an O.E. hat or shirt: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomySupport us and our tireless editors and producers by donating: https://optimisteconomy.comAnd send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders: optimist.economy@gmail.com

An essay went viral by claiming that $140,000 is what a family of four needs to just get by — a number higher than what 70% of American households earn. Conservative economists called it idiotic. Kathryn dismissed it and got a nasty DM. What’s the real controversy? It’s not that the poverty line is misleading. It's that we have no measure for our current affordability crisis. And the American mindset has been so warped by decades of bad economic policy that we think the only way to get help is to prove that we’re poor.END NOTES: The essay in question: Part 1: My Life Is a Lie - by Michael W. Green, What economists thought: Viral essay says $140,000 should be the new poverty line - The Washington Post ; Cato: The $140,000 ‘Poverty Line’ Is Laughably Wrong, So Why Does It Feel Right? ; AEI: How Not to Redefine Poverty How U.S. poverty measures actually work: Two Ways the U.S. Census Bureau Measures Poverty to Capture Clearer Picture of Poverty in America  Kathryn on Money with Katie (at min. 35) Watch video clips from this episode at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Read some stuff on our Substack.Consume leisure in an O.E. hat or shirt: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomySupport us and our tireless editors and producers by donating: https://optimisteconomy.comAnd send your economic questions, concerns, or executive orders: optimist.economy@gmail.com

Our own optimist economist Kathryn Anne Edwards worked on a research project several years ago to measure income inequality. Its massive headline number has taken on a life of its own in columns, talking points, memes. We explain how Kathryn and co-author Carter Price managed to answer this question: What would have happened to Americans’ incomes if they’d grown at the same rate as the U.S. economy overall? Spoiler alert: 90% of us would be a lot better off.Read the working paper Kathryn co-wrote in 2020: Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018 and Carter Price’s update going through 2023.Watch video clips from this episode at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.Read some stuff on our Substack.Consume leisure in an O.E. hat or shirt: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomySupport us and our tireless editors and producers by donating at https://optimisteconomy.comSend your economic questions or executive orders to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Hey optimists! Season two of Optimist Economy is finally here. New episodes coming on Tuesdays starting January 27. More at www.optimisteconomy.com

Listener Max did his grad thesis on pay transparency laws in Colorado and found that they narrowed the gender wage gap by 8 cents on the dollar. But some big-name economists reported that such laws can actually reduce wages. So what’s the deal? Kathryn’s answer during our October Q&A was so overlong and multipart that we jokingly called it, “The Max Show.” So here it is, as a mini-episode. Holiday shopping for the optimists in your life? Check out our shirts and hats at optimisteconomy.com

Your drunk uncle calls Social Security a Ponzi scheme. Your crypto-bro cousin thinks tariffs make China pay. Your grandfather blames working women for tanking wage growth. Economist Kathryn Edwards takes on a dozen hostile dinner-table challenges to help optimists everywhere prepare for dinner table debate. Robin plays every annoying relative you've ever argued with. Pass the [expletive] gravy. Ready to rep Optimist Economy with a shirt, hat or tote bag? Hit up our new website and merch store at optimisteconomy.com Take the listener survey first to get a code for a free Original Optimist sticker: https://tinyurl.com/op-econ-survey