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Rates & Barrels: A show about baseball

Rates & Barrels: A show about baseball
Author: The Athletic
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© 2023 - The Athletic
Description
Eno Sarris, Derek VanRiper, Chris Welsh & Al Melchior discuss advanced stats and fantasy baseball strategy, prospects, and more. From the first move of the Hot Stove season to the final pitch of the World Series, join us for year-round baseball talk.
440 Episodes
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DVR, Eno and Welsh are back for a Project Prospect trade edition. We're looking at long-term trade for and away options. We're also discussing Royce Lewis' rest-of-season value, Bobby Miller and more.
Rundown
3:27 Royce Lewis
12:59 Royce vs McLain and Elly talk
18:36 Bet on Royce or Elly ROS
19:32 Bobby Miller
21:25 Rank these prospect pitchers ROS
28:11 Hunter Brown
34:04 Pitchers to target in trades
37:22 Nick Lodolo
38:22 Trading Justin Verlander
41:31 Buying Pfaadt and Grayson
43:38 Oneil Cruz
44:45 wRC+ buys
50:00 Drew Gilbert
59:27 wRC+ vs age/level
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
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Eno and Al discuss Bobby Miller’s major league debut and consider if he needs to be added to all leagues where he is available. They also discuss Julio Teheran’s return to the majors, a pair of widely-available leadoff hitters, Eno’s ongoing fascination with Rougned Odor and a surprisingly robust week for streaming two-start pitchers.
Rundown
0:42 Bobby Miller debuts
4:30 Other recent news items
17:21 Lineup developments
34:16 Pitchers of note
42;38 Streamers/two-start pitchers
55:03 Closer corner
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and Welsh discuss a couple of Statcast anomalies, and deep dive into a listener question of the how trust worthy Statcast pages really are. We're also digging into Bryce Miller, Michael Kopech and more.
Rundown
1:53 - The curious case of Ke'Bryan Hayes Statcast page
8:21 - Will Ke'Bryan ever live up to his Statcast page?
12:13 - Top and Bottom 10 Barrel % leaders
14:20 - What Eno looks for to determine future power
19:09 - The curious case of Bryce Elder's Statcast page
20:27 - Eno's first time looking at Statcast pitcher sliders
26:20 - Statcast percentile screen shots
28:27 - Prospect who beat projection
34:22 - Expected stats and Projections
36:12 - Stuff+ variance over the season
39:08 - Bryce Miller
42:45 - Bryce Miller release point vs the league
46:07 - Bryce Miller vs Jacob DeGrom pitch release points
50:42 - Michael Kopech success
54:57 - Andrew Abbott's 21 WHIFF Wednesday
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
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DVR, Eno and Welsh look into the big opportunity in LA for prospect pitchers. Is Patrick Bailey someone to watch? Is George Valera underrated? Is this the time to buy Jordan Lawlar? Plus plenty more!
Rundown
1:10 - Gavin Stone's odd outing
9:05 - Rookie pitching game. Welsh vs Eno
15:51 - Bobby Miller debut
22:08 - Emmett Sheehan
25:08 - Is Hayden Wesneski a hold?
30:59 - Is Luis Ortiz good?
35:44 - Forrest Whitley
44:30 - Patrick Bailey
49:42 - George Valera
55:35 - Is now the time to buy Jordan Lawlar
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
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Eno and DVR discuss the promotion of Bobby Miller and the return of Gavin Stone as the Dodgers turn to their pipeline of starters to backfill from injuries to Dustin May and Julio Urías. Plus, they examine the 2023 step forward from Logan Gilbert, pushing starting pitchers more aggressively in the early rounds of 2024 builds, the recent struggles of Jameson Taillon and Graham Ashcraft, and the potential value of hard-hit averages.
Rundown
4:47 Bobby Miller En Route to Los Angeles
8:06 Reservations About Gavin Stone?
11:23 Why Don't Projections Like Logan Gilbert More?
17:08 DVR Gets Too Cute with a Keeper League Deal, Likely Falls on Face
21:02 Planning A More Pitching-Heavy Approach in 2024 Drafts?
31:52 What's Wrong with Jameson Taillon?
41:39 Graham Ashcraft Slams the Breaks on April's Breakout
47:37 Any Concerns About Julio Rodríguez
51:03 Looking at Batting Average on Hard-Hit Balls
55:34 Power Outages: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Ryan McMahon & Andrew Benintendi
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR and Al look into how Matt McLain and Casey Schmitt stack up against other hitters in the shortstop pool, and they make the case for adding Jake Burger in a wide swath of leagues. They also consider the fantasy impact of the returns of Matthew LIberatore, Gavin Stone and Taj Bradley to the majors, and sort through a less-than-inspiring group of streamable pitchers.
Rundown
0:29 Where should Matt McLain and Casey Schmitt be rostered?
12:28 Jake Burger’s return and other lineup developments
23:33 Josh Lowe is the No. 4 Roto outfielder?
28:09 Rotation developments
42:33 Streamers/two-start pitchers
54:34 Closer corner
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the sticky stuff suspension for Domingo Germán, a new source of saves for the Yankees, a few surprisingly valuable pitchers, the actual benefit of LODEM, treating Jacob deGrom like an elite reliever, Emmanuel Clase's low strikeout rate, and more.
Rundown
0:56 Domingo Germán's Sticky Stuff Suspension
12:43 Wandy Peralta is Getting Saves
17:22 Surprising Pitchers: Earned Auction Values
22:54 The Actual Case for LODEM
27:51 Alek Thomas Demoted to Triple-A
33:24 Lance Lynn's Gradual Decline
38:05 The Importance of Updating & Adjusting Models
48:16 Matthew Liberatore is Back
52:13 Concerned About Emmanuel Clase's Strikeout Rate?
55:28 Should We Value Jacob deGrom Like an Elite Reliever?
59:06 Shallow League Decisions & Gunnar Henderson
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR, Eno and Welsh breakdown Matt McLain's Reds debut and his value rest of season. We're also talking Dynasty strategies, how to approach prospect pitchers and more.
Rundown
0:52 Matt McLain
10:11 Souring on Tovar
12:17 Elly De La Cruz
14:25 More prospects coming for the future
18:58 What happened to Brandon Williamson
20:53 Eury Pérez
25:31 Eury Pérez's Curveball
28:34 Today's run environment
32:26 Pitching prospects in dynasty
38:02 Investment in pitching prospects
41:12 Lodem or Ledom?
43:10 Jake Eder
47:40 Listener dynasty questions
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
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Eno and DVR discuss the injury to Drew Rasmussen and another test for the Rays' pitching depth, the return of James Paxton , the growth of Mitch Keller, and the tension between rest-of-season projections and growing samples of over- and underperforming players.
Rundown
6:41 Drew Rasmussen's Injury
11:01 Taj Bradley & The Rays' Pitching Depth
20:31 James Paxton is Back! Is James Paxton Back?
25:32 Mitch Keller's Past Calendar Year
34:22 DVR Joins Eno's Skeptical View of Alek Manoah
40:40 Rest of Season Projections: Navigating Risky Rebounds & Coping with the Buzzkill
53:41 Buying High Despite ROS Projections?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels
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This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/rates and get on your way to being your best self.
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DVR and Al discuss how much FAB they think should be dedicated towards adding just-promoted Marlins pitching prospect Eury Pérez and consider the fallout from Max Fried’s forearm injury. They also look at several infield options, including Orlando Arcia, Nick Pratto, Casey Schmitt and Andy Ibáñez. DVR and Al walk through the pitching options on waivers (other than Pérez) and assess the Phillies’ closer situation.
Rundown
0:32 How much FAB should we dedicate to Eury Pérez?
6:15 Other news items of note
23:56 Lineup developments
37:51 Pitchers of interest
44:54 Streamers/Two-start pitchers
51:49 Closer Corner
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the Twins' decision to send Jose Miranda to Triple-A, Casey Schmitt's place in the Giants' infield mix, the rapidly rising number of injured pitchers, a Phillies bullpen bracing for the absence of Jose Alvarado, budgeting in-season FAB resources, the struggles of Corbin Burnes and the likelihood of a rebound back toward previous levels, and much more.
Rundown
0:55 Jose Miranda: Optioned to Triple-A
8:34 Casey Schmitt: Homers in Debut, DVR's Corrected Comp
13:08 Brett Wisely v. David Villar
18:48 Jacob deGrom: Could Return in 2-3 Weeks; Then What Happens?
21:52 Significant Injuries Mounting Among Starting Pitchers
25:07 Changing Pitching Strategy in the Future?
34:44 Jose Alvarado Placed on IL with Elbow Injury
38:28 Becoming More Disciplined with In-Season Resources
44:16 Examining Corbin Burnes' Strange Start to 2023
51:26 Will Pitch Clock Push Older Starters Out of the Game Sooner than Expected?
57:23 IP Leaders Since 2017
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR, Eno and Welsh talk about Bryce Miller's pitch mix, Eno's conversation with him and why he struggled at Double-A. Are the Rays messing with Taj Bradley? Plus we've got some listener questions and tons more.
Rundown
0:34 - Bryce Miller
2:23 - What is a Gyro slider
3:53 - What Savant says about Millers pitch mix vs what it really is
6:55 - Why Bryce Miller struggled at AA according to Bryce
13:14 - What's going on with Taj Bradley
20:23 - If minot league stats aren't sticky, can we trust stat driven prospect lists?
26:21 - Ben Brown
30:06 - Is Liberatore the next big FAAB pitcher
30:42 - DVR only likes bad pitchers
35:51 - Eury Perez
37:01 - Can a high K and high BB pitcher like Edward Cabrera work?
44:09 - Can Chase Silseth be DVR's bad pitcher?
46:47 - Casey Schmitt
50:53 - Can Dominic Fletcher take real time away from Alek Thomas?
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
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Eno and DVR discuss the Cardinals' unusual decision to move Willson Contreras out of the catcher rotation (at least temporarily), the struggles of Jack Flaherty, a return to the big leagues for Christopher Morel and Luis Ortiz, and several mailbag questions.
Rundown
1:14 Willson Conteras: Moving Off Catcher, For Now?
7:59 Failures in Logic
12:44 Jack Flaherty's Ongoing Struggles
20:31 Luis Ortiz Back in the Pirates' Rotation
23:41 Christopher Morel is Back with the Cubs
28:02 Matt Strahm to the Bullpen?
30:09 Jack Suwinski Comp?
32:46 Cody Bellinger's Rebound; Statcast Numbers
36:47 Brandon Woodruff Injury Update
40:33 Jarren Duran: Post-Hype Sleeper?
44:45 Drew Rasmussen: Model Numbers v. Ranking
48:28 Falling Behind Season IP Pace
52:25 Aaron Judge is Coming Back on Tuesday
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels
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DVR, Eno and Al discuss the latest round of prospect callups, including Matt Mervis, Bryce Miller, Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone, and share their approaches for determining FAB bids. They also talk about the two latest additions to the Twins’ rotation and assess the coming week’s cohort of streamable pitchers.
Rundown
1:04 This week’s big callup news
16:59 Deeper-league hitter callups
22:33 Should we stash Christian Encarnacion-Strand?
26:24 Lineup developments
28:35 Notable pitchers
45:10 Streamers/two-start pitchers
55:42 Bullpen report
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss an excellent battle between rookie starters Bryce Miller and Mason Miller in Oakland on Tuesday night before a rookie pitcher installment of 'Would You Rather'. Plus, they examine some of the biggest risers among starting pitchers from the first month of the season.
Rundown
0:35 Mason Miller v. Bryce Miller
6:11 Would You Rather? Rookie Pitchers Edition
14:21 Per-Pitch Stuff+ Question
19:09 Hayden Wesneski's Low K%
22:16 Will Smith Takes Over As Rangers Closer
29:29 Shifting Toward Rostering Non-Closer Relievers?
35:55 April Risers & Fallers: Hitters
46:34 Jack Suwinski's Rise to Shallow League Relevance
52:48 Brandon Lowe's Elevated K%, Power Returns
57:47 Any Concerns About J.D. Davis & Michael Conforto?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/rates and get on your way to being your best self.
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DVR, Eno and Welsh review some of the biggest rookie performances from April. Who to buy and sell, plus some Dynasty rank overall changes.
Rundown
1:27 - Outman production vs K rate
12:45 - Corbin Carroll
18:28 - Esteury Ruiz
22:31 - Josh Jung's adjustment for more power
26:39 - The "who got demoted" game
29:25 - Oscar Colas
34:04 - Outman vs Colas
42:34 - Could Evan Carter get called up?
50:45 - Wander Franco's dynasty rise
59:33 - What pitchers are left to speculate on in the minors
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh
Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels
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This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp (paid ad), Visit betterhelp.com/rates today to get 10% off your first month.
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Eno and DVR discuss some of the biggest risers -- and a few fallers -- among starting pitchers from the first month of the season.
Rundown
0:45 Jacob deGrom Returns to the IL
6:23 Nathan Eovaldi's First Month in Texas
13:51 Dustin May's Rise Up Eno's Rankings
18:50 Freddy Peralta's Velo Returns; Pitch Mix is Strong
23:08 Jesús Luzardo's Step Forward in Miami
26:26 Joe Ryan New Arsenal
28:54 Zac Gallen's Continued Dominance
31:20 Other Big Movers
44:10 JP Sears: Sneaky Fallback Add From April?
50:30 Hunter Brown's First 50 MLB Innings
57:04 Big Fallers in the Rankings
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels
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This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/rates and get on your way to being your best self.
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DVR and Al consider how aggressively they want to pursue Guardians pitching prospects Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, now that they have made their major league debuts. They also discuss the shallow-league appeal of Jack Suwinski and Jason Heyward and identify the streamable pitchers with the best upcoming matchups.
Rundown
0:54 Prospect promotions and demotions
22:13 Injury fallout
28:35 Hitter developments
40:14 Notable pitchers
51:09 Streamers and two-start pitchers
1:02:13 Bullpen update
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the excellent start to 2023 for Jarred Kelenic, other young players who may be on the brink of breaking through after initial struggles at the big league-level, Jake McCarthy's demotion, the Rays' approach with Taj Bradley, monitoring command in-game, Pete Alonso's power binge, and the 2023 version of Charlie Morton.
Rundown
0:56 Jarred Kelenic's Year 3 Step Forward
6:27 Looking for Other Young Players Nearing Breakout
14:47 Jake McCarthy's Demotion = Alek Thomas' Extended Opportunity
18:26 An Attempt to Understand the Rays' Approach with Taj Bradley
31:32 What Are Teams Using to Monitor Command During Games?
40:44 Pete Alonso's Early Power Binge
50:32 The 2023 Version of Charlie Morton
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR, Eno and Welsh breakdown some Stuff+ factors to consider for Triple-A pitchers, the latest call-ups and prospects to stash.
Rundown
1:07 - Welsh was on Logan T. Allen before Bibee
3:15 - Tanner Bibee
8:14 - Stuff+ numbers for pitchers who go 50 pitches vs 80 pitches
12:31 - Altitude and it's affect on Stuff+ in the minors
18:16 - Tanner Bibee vs Brandon Pfaadt
31:05 - Michael Busch to the Majors
36:09 - Pirates prospects that could be on their way up
46:14 - Liberatore vs Silseth
52:!6 - Jordan Westburg vs Connor Norby vs Joey Ortiz
1:00:00 - Heston Kjerstad
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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time stamps so off it annoying
im looking for an eno-saurus anybody seen one?
i never take into account say i take a 3 15 steal guys at the bottom of a draft, the gotcha is, how often will you be willing to start these scrubs anyway? you'll likely get like 5 of those steals! that's why trae turner is extremely valuable, you get all of his steals and he doesn't hurt you in other categories.