Sinica Podcast

I'm in Shaxi, a wonderful little town in the Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, and I was joined here by the Columbia economic historian Adam Tooze, who shared his thoughts on what he sees happening on the ground in China. Adam's been in China for the last month and reflects on his experiences learning about the country — and even attempting the language!03:49 - The economic situation in China10:42 - Patterns of consumption in China14:38 - China’s industrial policy and renewable energy 18:52 - China vs. the U.S. on renewables26:15 - China’s economic engagement with the Global South33:13- Beijing’s strategic shift and Europe’s rethinking37:49- The recent European Parliament paper42:43 - Learning about China as an “Outsider” 51:31 - Adam’s evolving views on China 59:30 - Paying it Forward01:01:07 - Recommendations Paying it Forward: Kyle Chan, Pekingology.Recommendations: Adam: Caught by the Tide, Jia Zhangke (movie).Kaiser: Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s OpenAI, Karen Hao (book), Vera, or Faith, Gary Shteyngart (book).See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in a show taped in early June in Washington, Kaiser chats with Tong Zhao (赵通) of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a leading expert on Chinese nuclear doctrine, about why the PRC has, in recent years, significantly increased the size of its nuclear arsenal. Zhao offers a master class in the practice of strategic empathy.03:12 – China’s nuclear doctrine: core principles06:56 – Xi Jinping’s leadership and nuclear policy12:33 – Symbolism vs. strategy: Defensive or offensive buildup?16:55 – What’s driving the nuclear expansion?28:33 – Trump’s second term: Impact on China’s strategic thinking34:34 – Nukes and Taiwan41:45 – Washington and Beijing nuclear doctrines perceptions48:04 - China’s perspective on the Golden Dome program52:32 - China’s Stance on North Korea’s nuclear program 01:01:00 - Beijing’s View on North Korean troops in UkrainePaying it forward: David Logan, at Tufts UniversityRecommendations:Tong:  Yellowstone, TV series Kaiser: Gomorrah, TV series See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In 2014, the writer Christopher Beam published a humorous, heartwarming story in The New Republic about an unlikely team of American football enthusiasts in Chongqing who went on to defeat their archrivals in Shanghai to win a championship. The piece was optioned by Sony Pictures, and had some big names attached, but was ultimately never made — not, at least, by an American studio. Eleven years later, Chris has written about a film that was made: Clash, produced by iQiyi, hit theaters in China earlier this year and followed the Chongqing Dockers in the same story arc, but with important and telling differences. His new story was published in The Atlantic, and he talks to me about the Dockers and the long, strange story of the film that wasn't and the one that was.03:50 – The Meaning of Chinese YOLO05:33 – Chris’s First Meeting With the Chongqing Team13:11 – Chris McLaurin’s Background15:54 – American Football as a Symbol of Masculinity19:50 – The Failed Hollywood Adaptation25:34 – First Impressions of the Film31:55 – Bridging Perspectives: Can a Movie Speak To Both Sides?36:42 – A Lost Moment in GlobalizationPaying it Forward: Viola ZhouRecommendations: Chris: Rejection by Tony Tulathimutte (short story collection)Kaiser: Becoming Led Zeppelin (documentary); the Beijing-based artist Michael Cherney.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Stephen Platt, historian at UMass Amherst and author, most recently, of the book The Raider: The Untold Story of a Renegade Marine and the Birth of U.S. Special Forces in World War II. Like his previous works, Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom and Imperial Twilight, it offers a compelling narrative history of an overlooked chapter through a deeply empathetic and well-researched examination of individual lives. Please make sure to listen to the excerpt from the audiobook at the end of this podcast.04:21 - Evans Carlson: A forgotten hero07:49 - The Real Carlson vs. the constructed Carlson10:04 - The book's origin12:20 - Carlson's ideological transformation16:50 - Carlson's religious beliefs and public perception20:04 - Emerson's influence on Carlson's thinking 23:46 - Inner conflicts: Soul-searching or regret?27:15 - Carlson's relationship with President Franklin D. Roosevelt30:39 - Gung Ho Meetings: meaning, practice, and legacy33:34 - Zhu De’s influence on Carlson 40:28 - Carlson’s relationships with Agnes Smedley and Edgar Snow47:49 - Hopes for U.S.-China alliance 51:57 - Carlson’s death and his legacy 58:01 - Lessons from CarlsonPaying it Forward: Peter Thilly, Emily MokrosRecommendations: Stephen: 11.22.63 by Stephen King; Ted Chiang (author); Otoboke Beaver (band); Book of Mormon (musical)Kaiser: Wobbler (band); The Religion by Tim Willocks; Zappa (2020)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jostein Hauge, political economist and an Assistant Professor in Development Studies at the University of Cambridge, based at the Centre of Development Studies and the Department of Politics and International Studies, and author of the book The Future of the Factory: How Megatrends are Changing Industrialization.3:09 – Self Introduction: Jostein Hauge4:23 – Anti-China Sentiment in Western Discourse7:40 – Misconceptions and Prevailing Narratives10:08 – Technological Transfer and the Political Economy12:18 – Historical Periods of Economic Rivalry 14:36 – Evolving Industrial Policy: From Japan’s MITI to China and the U.S. today18:59 – China’s Contemporary Industrial Policy: Quality or Quantity? 21:13 – China as a Rising Power: Is History Repeating?24:18 – The Sustainability of China’s Industrial Policy 26:43 – China, Overcapacity, and Global Imbalances34:07 – Overcapacity: Economic Reality or Ideological Construct?36:04 – China's domination in the renewable energy market39:13 – China’s greenhouse gas emissions43:17 – How China is reshaping the IP regime 48:14 – The U.S. national security stance and the trade war with China55:10 – Europe’s approach to ChinaPaying it forward: Kyle Chan at High CapacityRecommendations:Jostein: The White Lotus (TV Series)Kaiser: The Raider: The Untold Story of a Renegade Marine and the Birth of U.S. Special Forces in World War II by Stephen R. PlattSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I speak with Kendra Schaefer, the partner at Trivium China who heads their tech practice. She recently published a fascinating paper looking at the Cyberspace Administration of China's comprehensive database of generative AI tools released in China, and she shares the insights and big takeaways from her research on that database. It's a terrific window into what Chinese firms, both private and state-affiliated, are doing with generative AI.03:51 – Mandatory registration of generative AI Tools in China10:28 – How does the CAC categorize AI Tools?14:25 – State-affiliated vs. non-state-affiliated AI Tools18:55 – Capability and competition of China's AI Industry22:57 – Significance of Generative Algorithmic Tools (GAT) registration counts26:06 – The application of GATs in the education sector29:50 – The application of GATs in the healthcare Sector31:00 – Underrepresentation of AI tools in other sectors32:56 – Regional breakdown of AI innovation in China36:07 – AI adoption across sectors: how companies integrate AI40:21 – Standout projects by the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS)42:42 – How multinationals navigate China's tech regulations47:50 – Role of foreign players in China's AI strategy49:38 – Key takeaways from the AI development journey53:41 -– Blind spots in AI data57:25 – Kendra's future research directionPaying it Forward: Kenton Thibaut.Recommendations:Kendra: The Chinese Computer: A Global History of the Information Age by Thomas Mullaney.Kaiser: the Rhyming Chaos Podcast by Jeremy Goldkorn and Maria RepnikovaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Jeremy Goldkorn joins for this largely unedited throwback to the early, sweary days of the show. We talk about the announcement made on Wednesday, 28 May 2025, on the "aggressive" revocation of Chinese student visas for students with Party "connections" or who study "critical fields." You've been warned!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A bonus episode this week. On May 22, I moderated a panel organized by Vita Golod and the UNC Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies. The focus was on the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Security Partnership, and it features Ivan Us, Chief Consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy at the National Institute for Strategic Studies; Jim Mullinax, a Senior Foreign Service Officer and former Consul General at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu (closed in 2020); Grzegorz Stec, Senior Analyst and Head of the Brussels Office at MERICS; and Xu Qinduo, journalist at CGTN and Senior Fellow at the Pangoal Institution. The panel explores the background and the implications of the minerals deal, signed on May 1, 2025, for the ongoing war in Ukraine, and prospects for post-war reconstruction. I hope you enjoy what I thought was a fascinating conversation.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Eva Dou, technology reporter for the Washington Post, about her terrific new book about Huawei. From its prehistory to its fight for its life under tremendous U.S. pressure, she tells its story in a way that's both deeply engaging and very evenhanded. 04:53 – Meng Wanzhou’s case and its impact on media interest in Huawei07:13 – How did Ren Zhengfei’s experiences in the PLA shape the corporate culture of Huawei?10:21 – The impact of his father on Ren Zhengfei 13:42 – Women in Huawei’s leadership and Sun Yafang as a chairwoman 18:41 – Is Huawei a tool of the state?23:21 – Edward Snowden’s revelations and how they influenced the perception of Huawei 26:34 – The Cisco lawsuit influence on the company’s approach to foreign markets 28:07 – Reasons for Huawei working with embargoed or sanctioned states30:46 – Huawei’s international expansion 33:04 – Huawei’s management style and internal competition 36:33 – Meng Wenzhou’s detainment as a turning point for Huawei and China-U.S. relations38:09 – Ren Zhengfei’s media campaign and narrative shift after the Meng affair40:44 – Huawei’s involvement in Xinjiang’s surveillance 43:09 – Huawei’s success in shaping 5G standards despite global pushback46:27 – The “Huawei index”: tracking Chinese investment abroad through Huawei’s market presence48:35 – Huawei’s push into chip development amid sanctions: real progress or just hype?52:23 – Huawei: a proxy, a leading or lagging indicator, or just a bellwether?54:11 – Huawei’s “too big to fail” status: benefits and risks amid U.S. government pressure56:29 – Huawei’s perspective on the backlash from sanctions58:19 – Concluding question: about Huawei’s ownership and governancePaying it forward: Raffaele Huang at The Wall Street JournalRecommendations: Eva: The Party's Interests Come First by Joseph Torigian; Yang Jie at The Wall Street Journal; Piranesi by Susanna ClarkeKaiser: Adolescence on Netflix; Kyle Chan's high-capacity.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Sinica Network proudly presents a new podcast: China Talking Points, featuring Kaiser Kuo (host of the Sinica Podcast), Eric Olander (host of the China-Global South Podcast and China In Africa Podcast) and Andrew Polk, co-founder of Trivium China and host of its podcast. We'll be joined regularly by Lizzi Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Center for China Analysis. Tune in live every other week for unscripted thoughts on the major China-related news of the week.This week, we focused on the truce in the trade war that Donald Trump launched with the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs of April 9. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with top Chinese trade negotiator He Lifeng and his team in Geneva over the weekend, and we look at what came out of those meetings and what we can expect to happen next. We also discussed the dogfight that took place between India and Pakistan last week, in which the Pakistani air force claims to have downed as many as five Indian planes, significant for China because the Pakistani planes were Chinese-made J10-C fighters. Eric, who wrote about the Chinese reaction to this and offered his take on the reasons for their success, managed to incur a lot of online Indian wrath — an occupational hazard — but presents a compelling case for why the fully integrated Chinese military systems gave Pakistan the edge.Watch us live on YouTube starting May 28th. Check out the new Sinica Network YouTube channel here!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I had scheduled a show to record while I was in Providence last week, but it fell through and had to be rescheduled, so please give this talk I delivered at Carnegie Mellon last month a listen!Hope you enjoy.KaiserSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Bob Davis, who has covered the U.S.-China relationship for decades. He recently published a new book called Broken Engagement, which consists of interviews with U.S. policymakers who were instrumental in shaping American policy toward China from the George H.W. Bush administration through the Biden administration. It's an eye-opening look at the individuals who fought for — and against — engagement with China.2:58 – Bob’s thoughts on engagement: whether it was doomed from the start, when and why there was a shift, people’s different aspirations for it and retrospective positioning, and whether it could have a transformative effect  13:28 – The Nancy Pelosi interview: her approach, her Taiwan visit, and her critique of capitulation to business interests17:18 – Bob’s interviews with Charlene Barshefsky, Lawrence Summers, and Bob Zoellick: the WTO accession, the China shock, Zoellick’s “responsible stakeholder” concept, and diplomacy as an ongoing process 27:24 – The Robert Gates interview: security-focused engagement, and his shift to realism 31:14 – Misreading Xi Jinping34:42 – Bob’s interviews with Stephen Hadley and Ash Carter regarding the South China Sea 39:19 – The Matt Pottinger interview: his view on China and how COVID changed everything 46:14 – Michael Rogers’ interview: cyber espionage and cyber policy 51:25 – Robert O’Brien’s interview: the “reverse Kissinger” and Taiwan 54:14 – Bob’s interview with Kurt Campbell: his famous Foreign Affairs essay, differentiating between decoupling and de-risking, and technology export restrictions and trade deals 59:28 – The Rahm Emanuel interview: his response to wolf warrior diplomacy1:01:57 – Bob’s takeaways: the long-term vision of engagement, introspective interviewees, and his own increased pessimism Paying It Forward: Lingling Wei at The Wall Street Journal; Eva Dou at The Washington Post and her book House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company; and Katrina Northrop at The Washington Post Recommendations: Bob: The TV series Derry Girls (2018-2022) and Curb Your Enthusiasm (2000-2024); and Margaret O’Farrell’s novels, including Hamnet and The Marriage Portrait Kaiser: The BBC and Masterpiece series Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with SCMP Senior Europe Correspondent Finbarr Bermingham, who joins from Brussels where he's been covering the EU-China relationship in fantastic depth and with great insight.3:17 – EU-China relations in early 2025: the effect of the 2021 sanctions, who advocated for engagement versus confrontation with China, and the importance of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI)13:49 – How Brussels initially reacted to the rupture in the transatlantic alliance 17:14 – China’s so-called charm offensive 21:03 – The idea of de-risking from Washington 23:10 – The impact of the Oval Office meeting with Zelensky 24:55 – Europe’s dual-track approach with China and shift toward pragmatism 29:35 – National interests versus EU unity regarding Chinese investment, and whether Brussels could extract concessions 35:20 – Brussels’ worry over Trump cutting a deal with China 38:06 – Possible signs of China’s flexibility on different issues40:25 – The lifting of the sanctions on European parliamentarians 42:21 – The decrease in calls for values-based diplomacy, and whether securitization is happening in Europe47:05 – How the EU might address tensions over China’s industrial overcapacity 50:17 – The possible future of EU-China relations, and whether the transatlantic relationship could go back to normal55:50 – The knee-jerk element of looking past EuropePaying It Forward: Ji Siqi at SCMP, Cissy Zhou at Nikkei, and Kinling Lo and Viola Zhou at Rest of WorldRecommendations:Finbarr: The Stakeknife podcast series; Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland by Patrick Radden Keefe; and the 20th anniversary edition of Wilco’s album, A Ghost Is Born Kaiser: The Ottomans: Khans, Caesars, and Caliphs by Marc David Baer See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in a show recorded at the University of Pittsburgh, I speak with Benno Weiner, Associate Professor of History at Carnegie Mellon University, about how China's policy toward its minority nationalities (or minzu) have shifted from their older, Soviet-inspired form to the policies of assimilation we now see.2:29 – How the so-called second-generation minzu policy evolved, and its shift away from the first-generation policy17:15 – China’s language policy, comparisons to other historical cases, and the difficulty in striking a balance between language autonomy and the state interest of economic equality25:26 – Debating the assumption of Uyghur forced labor 28:20 – How the minzu policy shift is driven by economic and political stability concerns 30:07 – The limited ability of minzus to make themselves heard32:01 – The difficulty of advocacy in the face of accusations of U.S. hypocrisy 37:30 – Han guilt as a galvanizing idea 40:21 – Whether the shift in minzu policy is reversible, and the effect of external pressure 43:46 – Why Xinjiang has received greater global attention than other places 45:50 – How future historians may view minzu policy under Xi JinpingPaying It Forward: Guldana Salimjan, at the University of Toronto Recommendations:Benno: The Red Wind Howls by Tsering Döndrup, translated by Christopher PeacockKaiser: The Six: The Untold Story of the Titanic’s Chinese Survivors by Steven SchwankertSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with Yawei Liu, Senior Advisor for China at the Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia, and Yukon Huang, former China country head of the World Bank and now Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The show was taped live at the 2025 Columbia China Summit at Columbia University, put on by the Columbia University Greater China Society, on April 13,. Special thanks to them for inviting us to attend!3:53 – Columbia University’s history with China 7:52 – How Beijing views the current trade war 11:32 – Yawei’s idea of “the clash of misperceptions”18:18 – The actual origins of America’s trade deficits and China’s trade surpluses 23:14 – How the inevitable talk between Trump and Xi Jinping may play out32:04 – Sinophobia versus changing attitudes toward China 35:43 – How the current trade war is related to innovation in China 45:31 – How we can wage peace Paying It Forward: Nicholas Zeller and his Substack newsletter, The U.S.-China Perception MonitorRecommendations:Yawei: Americans in China: Encounters with the People’s Republic ed. by Terry Lautz, and Chinese Encounters with America: Journeys That Shaped the Future of China ed. by Terry Lautz and Deborah DavisYukon: David Brooks’ April 2022 article, “The End of Globalization: The Dominance of Global Cultural Wars” Kaiser: The Weimar Years: Rise and Fall 1918-1933 by Frank McDonough See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Hazza Harding, a young Australian who began learning Chinese and made his way to China where he became a pop singer with hits on Chinese pop charts and a state media newscaster — and also lost his husband tragically, suffered through the COVID lockdowns while grieving for his loss. Yet he remains committed to furthering understanding and engagement, and has shown admirable resilience. Read his remarkable essay on his experiences here.6:51 – How Hazza started in China, and how his career changed throughout his time there 19:27 – Hazza’s experiences feeling alienated in China 27:00 – Hazza’s experience working in Chinese state media 34:04 – How China shaped Hazza and Wayne’s love story, and how grief has shaped Hazza’s perspective on life56:08 – The loveliness of everyday interactions 58:43 – Hazza’s advice on giving oneself time and leniency 1:02:38 – How Hazza may find his way back to China in the future Paying It Forward: James Laurenceson at UTS Sydney Recommendations:Hazza: China Blonde: How a newsreader’s search for adventure led to friendship, acceptance… and peroxide pandemonium in China by Nicole Webb Kaiser: The TV series Xi Bei Sui Yue (Into the Great Northwest) (2024 - )See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jeffrey Ding, author of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, a book that argues that a nation's ability to invent foundational technologies matters ultimately less in its overall national power than its ability to diffuse those "general purpose technologies," like electricity, digital technology, the internet, and — in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution — Artificial Intelligence. I ask Jeff whether he thinks that China, with its powerful tech companies and its new enthusiasm for open source, may at last be closing what his book identifies as a diffusion deficit.2:19 – Jeff’s argument for the power of diffusion in technological leadership6:07 – China’s diffusion deficit 12:09 – Institutional factors that affect technology diffusion, and how culture can also play a role 19:49 – China’s successes in (non-GPT) diffusion 24:29 – China’s open source push 29:55 – Discussing He Pengyu’s piece on semiconductors 32:19 – How Jeff might tweak his chapter on China in a second edition of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers Paying It Forward: Matt Sheehan of the Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceRecommendations:Jeff: The TV series The Pitt (2025 - ); and James Islington’s The Will of the Many Kaiser: The album Perpetual Change by Jon Anderson and The Band Geeks; and Steven Wilson’s new album, The OverviewSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with Jeremy Garlick, Director of the Jan Masaryk Centre for International Studies, Prague University, and a scholar of China’s international relations. Jeremy is the author of the book Advantage China: Agent of Change in an Era of Global Disruption, but the book we're talking about this week is his new Cambridge Element titled Evolution in International Relations. It's a fascinating attempt to apply ideas from evolutionary biology, evolutionary psychology, and archaeogenetics to further our understanding of how nations interact.6:13 – Why Jeremy decided to apply an evolutionary framework to IR 15:34 – Why evolutionary science hasn’t really been integrated into IR19:32 – How Jeremy views his project as refining the IR field 22:43 – The risk of the misappropriation of Jeremy’s work, and the evolutionary elements of cooperation and intergroup competition 28:54 – How to avoid the trap of viewing evolution as teleological 34:07 – The idea of self-domestication 39:55 – Morality and human rights 45:17 – How emotions affect decision-making and diplomacy 50:32 – Hierarchy and status-seeking in IR 56:56 – Applying an evolutionary framework to the IR phenomena of alliances, nuclear deterrence, and strategic balancing 1:01:31 – Altruism toward out-groups 1:05:57 – The inevitability of competition with China 1:08:19 – The intellectual challenges Jeremy faced while working on this project, and what he would develop further in the future1:12:51 – Jeremy’s thoughts on what IR as a discipline should address, integrating evolutionary science Paying It Forward: Richard TurcsányiRecommendations:Jeremy: The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous by Joseph Henrich; and The Expanse novels by James S. A. CoreyKaiser: Playground by Richard Powers See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, a special episode taped live at the University of California, Berkeley — my alma mater — on March 6 and featuring Jessica Chen Weiss of Johns Hopkins SAIS and Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution, both well-known to people who follow U.S.-China relations. This episode was made possible by the Center for Chinese Studies at UC Berkeley's Institute for Asian Studies, and will be available on video as well — I'll update with the link.5:32 – Looking back on the Biden administration’s approach to China12:28 – Attempting to outline the new Trump administration’s approach to China20:34 – The view from Beijing of Trump 2.026:54 – The Kindleberger Trap (and other "traps")29:35 – China, the U.S., and the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the idea of a “reverse Kissinger” 34:23 – The problem with framing objectionable Trump policy moves as ceding victories to China 36:51 – How countries in the Western Pacific region are responding to the new administration 38:48 – Taiwan’s concerns for Trump’s shift on Ukraine41:45 – Predictions for how the Trump administration will handle technology competition with China, and the apparent abandonment of industrial policy 48:14 – What the affirmative vision for U.S.-China policy should look like Paying It Forward:Ryan: Patricia Kim and Jon Czin at BrookingsJessica: Jeffrey Ding at George Washington University and Jonas Nahm at Johns Hopkins SAIS Recommendations:Jessica: The movie Conclave (2024)Ryan: Derek Thompson’s piece in The Atlantic, “The Anti-Social Century,” and Robert Cooper’s The Ambassadors: Thinking about Diplomacy from Machiavelli to Modern Times  Kaiser: The Man Without Qualities by Robert Musil See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, I'm proud to announce a new collaboration with Trivium, a China-focused strategic advisory firm you've probably heard of. They've got offices in DC, London, Shanghai, and Beijing, and they focus on analyzing and forecasting Chinese policy developments for multinational companies and institutional investors across a range of verticals -- including macroeconomics, technology, automotive, resources, renewable energy, critical minerals, and green technology. They put out a terrific podcast each week, and you'll be able to listen to it here or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for the Trivium China Podcast.On today's show, you'll hear a half-hour chat between me and the two co-founders, Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, which we taped ahead of the Two Meetings — the NPC and the CPPCC. Then you'll hear a conversation between Andrew and his colleague Dinny McMahon, who you've heard on the show before in an episode we did on the digital yuan, talking about what came out of the Two Meetings.You'll be hearing from lots of the great folks at Trivium in coming episodes, so be sure to tune in.Beginning next week, or possibly sooner, we'll also be running a regular economy-focused roundup put together by Andrew and the team at Trivium. That will come out on Fridays.A warm welcome to Trey, Andrew, and all the excellent people at Trivium!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.