Claim OwnershipThe Grumpy Strategists
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© Strategic Analysis Australia 2023
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The Grumpy Strategists chat about defence and security issues, from an Australian perspective. We say simple things about complicated issues that help cut through the politics and careful bureaucratic talking points. Critical but constructive conversations about the big security and technology issues affecting our world. RSSVERIFY
18 Episodes
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From a small sporting shooting goods supplier in 1973, NIOA Group has grown to be a major munitions and weapons supplier to Australia's military and law enforcement organisations. Robert Nioa talks with SAA's Michael Shoebridge about the last 28 years building an Australian prime with industrial heft. They discuss how Australia's strategic environment and new partnerships like AUKUS provide the direction to NIOA's business, along with its deepening commercial connections into the US and with capable Australian and international partners.
In 12 years, Adam Gilmour has grown Gilmour Space to be able to design and build its own space launch rockets, satellite buses to carry users' payloads & now is running his own space launch facility in Queensland. He talks about the business principles that let Gilmour Space thrive & move fast, and why sovereign launch and space capacity matters to Australia's security.
This new Grumpy Strategists series talks with makers & leaders in Australian industry who are key to our security. Tom Loveard, the Chief Technology Officer and one of the founders of C2 Robotics is our guest. He tells us how 25 years of hard work & research has given us the 'overnight breakthrough' that is the Speartooth long range undersea unmanned vehicle. It can be made in thousands & available well before 2030 - which would start to give the Australian military mass relevant to the huge Indo Pacific.
The Grumpy Strategists assess the state of public decision and policy making in Australia: the damaging path of 'profound' and "transformative' policies that aren't; the distracting symbolic political value of AUKUS, with numbers so large - $368 billion - they make other large decisions look trivial - and the now alarming gap between rhetoric and reality.
The Grumpy Strategists cover US budget cuts from 2 to 1 sub in its 2025 budget, the UK Parliament's report on the UK's failing nuclear reactor program, with Australia choosing this moment to give the UK $4.6bn for AUKUS sub design & nuclear reactors, the US delay into the 2040s to its SSN(X) sub - and the black comedy (for Australians) from the French sub Australia paid $4bn to develop but then cancelled winning the Dutch submarine competition.
Grumpy Strategists Marcus Hellyer & Michael Shoebridge have waded through the Australian Government's new Defence Industrial Development Strategy's 114 pages so you don't have to. The news is bad - the strategy will undermine Australian companies essential to our military power and to operating our military during a time of conflict, while increasing Australia's dependence on big foreign firms who will struggle to meet their home governments' needs.
SAA's Grumpy Strategists review the Australian Government's "Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant" Plan, which resurrects the 1990s habit of getting stuff 'fitted for but not with' key elements. It means new ships for a navy in desperate need of them, but creates more budget and personnel pressures for a defence organisation already dealing with unaffordable existing plans.
The Grumpy Strategists look at the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the expectations the Albanese Government's reviews and delay have built up for the May Defence budget, and what could replace Defence's broken 'disposal strategy' in an era of wars of necessity.
In Episode 10, SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss the indicators and warnings about the state of Australia's military coming out of the decision to not provide a warship to the multinational mission to the Red Sea, and the shortfalls in the Australian Army's ability to deploy shown by the assistance to the North Queensland floods. The extraordinary growth in staffing and spending in the AUKUS subs project team in Australia that's already happening provides a further warning of the growing pressures on Australia's military budget and force.
SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge look at the implications of elections from Taiwan, to India, Indonesia, the Solomon Islands, Poland and across the EU for collective action on everything ranging from climate change to China policy and the war in Ukraine. They show why Australia's Future Fund has invested $600m into defence industry everywhere but the autocracies and here at home, and end with a dive into the practical impacts of Australia's proposed new export controls.
"It looks like Australia just gave up its sovereignty and got nothing for it': This episode focuses on the proposed new Australia law that's meant to make innovation happen under the AUKUS partnership, but instead seems guaranteed to kill innovation and ensure even higher barriers to doing business with Defence. Forget working with anyone but the Anglosphere - so the hugely powerful creativity of Japan and South Korea isn't part of this disastrous - proposed - plan. It's permits for everyone.
Australian PM Albanese's world tour ends with a bright spot in the South Pacific. An internal review of the Australian Defence Department's advice and it's compliance with financial and administrative rules shows deep leadership failure at the highest level. And the B-21 as an alternative long range strike platform for Australia.
In Grumpy Strategists Episode 5, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge get into why the complex, top heavy leadership structure of Defence affects performance and demotivates those below it. They discuss the recruitment and retention crisis in the Australian military that's unfolded since 2016 - a force that's meant to have grown has shrunk - and finish with insights about the state of the US Navy from a report to Congress released as Mr Albanese left Washington.
In this episode, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss the implications of Hamas' mass murders, and what Ukraine and Hamas mean for strategies of deterrence against other aggressors. The release of imprisoned journalist Cheng Lei as a precursor to Anthony Albanese shaking Xi Jinping's hand is discussed as an example of calculating hostage diplomacy.
In Episode 4 the Grumpy Strategists cover the restructuring of the Australian Army in the aftermath of the Defence Strategic Review, as well as setting out the lessons and challenges for the Defence Force from the permanent grounding of the Army's Taipan helicopters after a fatal crash. They end by discussing the implications for the Australian government's China policy around PM Albanese's trips to Beijing and Washington, and the challenges for Mr Albanese in a distracted Washington.
Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss what the Ukrainian military's attack on Sevasotopol says about navies & denial. This, along with lessons from Australia's 25 year journey of discovery in a multi-billion dollar US drone program, can and should drive a reassessment of what Australia's military needs - and what the broader Australian industrial base can provide. Hint: digging stuff up has a dual-use tech side.
The second Grumpy Strategists Production looks at ‘continuous shipbuilding’ and the Navy. 6 years on, the National Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise hasn’t delivered any ships. Meanwhile, the ANZAC frigates and Collins submarines are ageing & will become increasingly fragile. What does the Defence Strategic Review show us about the role of the Navy? While the public debate around US Admiral Hilarides’ review is limited to a furious argument about big or small ships, Hilarides’ job has to get beyond that and provide a practical plan – even if this costs the Government money.
In this first Grumpy Strategist Productions podcast, SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge do a health check on the Defence Strategic Review, with some disturbing news for the patient and for Australia’s defence industry. Hear about the budget arm wrestles within Defence holding back investment decisions, along with how the DSR’s baby reviews advance the Treasurer’s fiscal strategy. And learn what’s replaced the saying ‘no one ever got sacked for buying IBM’.
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