The Rules of Investing

The past six months have been golden for investors, with everything from equities to gold and even Bitcoin enjoying stellar runs. And if risk assets are not your bag, then there have been juicy yields on offer across a range of cash and fixed-income asset classes.  Animal spirits woke from their slumber in late October 2023 when the Fed effectively claimed victory in the fight against inflation. Markets have been led to believe that rate cuts are a forgone conclusion in the year ahead, and participants have been piling into risk assets accordingly.  Christopher Joye, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Coolabah Capital Investments, says that markets have become so complacent that they appear to be completely ignoring a growing set of data suggesting that the path forward might not be smooth. Most notably, the resurgent inflation data coming out of the US is causing interest rate cut expectations to be dialled back and kicked down the road. When asked what he thought investors were getting wrong about markets today, Joye was quick to call the dichotomy between what the economy is suggesting needs to happen with interest rates and market expectations. “If this strong data keeps coming through then hold onto your hats because the world is not priced for this risk. Make no mistake, there is no margin for error in listed equities. There is no margin for error in venture capital, private equity, zero in crypto, in commercial real estate, nothing,” Joye argued. Tune in to the latest episode of the Rules of Investing, where Livewire’s James Marlay ask Joye about his views on the outlook for both the US and Australian economies, the three risks he is watching and where he sees value in Australian residential real estate.

Quality growth stocks, those with fortress balance sheets, impressive moats, structural tailwinds and top-notch management teams, have had a stellar run recently. Take Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) for example, which has risen 66% over the past year. Or Megaport (ASX: MP1), up over 252% in 12 months alone.  If you're like this anonymous writer, you've probably started to ponder whether it's time to trim some of your winning positions and take some profits.  And according to TMS Capital's Ben Clark, we may have just reached that point.  "A lot of investors are trying to chase a very small number of stocks in Australia because of the AI trade," he says.  "And I'd just be a bit wary about that because although those companies absolutely should benefit, it's just how quickly those benefits flow through and whether the market has just got a bit ahead of itself in terms of the benefits that will come through in the medium term."  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Clark sits down with Livewire's Ally Selby for a conversation on all things artificial intelligence, growth investing and holy grail stocks.  He shares where he is putting some of the firm's dry powder to work, a few reasons why investors should feel optimistic about the outlook for markets, and whether he would be buying the AI behemoths both globally and locally today despite their stellar runs over the last six months.  Plus, Clark shares why the tables may be turning once again for out-of-love growth darling CSL (ASX: CSL).  Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 9 April 2024.  Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  1:54 - Ben Clark's outlook for the remainder of 2024  4:17 - Record cash holdings in the US and what this means for markets  6:51 - Why Aussie investors are also holding a lot of cash  7:39 - The most common question Ben Clark is hearing from clients  10:01 - The takeaways from Ben's trip to SXSW in the US 12:13 - Learnings from a private meeting with a Google executive  15:11 - The outlook for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) 16:25 - Can the momentum continue for global AI winners like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)  19:17 - The ASX-listed stocks that directly benefit from AI  23:17 - Why some of these stocks' share prices may have gotten ahead of themselves 24:30 - Holy grail stocks - and why Brickworks (ASX: BKW), WiseTech (ASX: WTC), REA Group (ASX: REA) and CSL (ASX: CSL) make the cut  29:32 - Where Ben Clark has started to take profits  31:28 - And where he is putting that cash to work  36:11 - One thing the market is getting wrong today  38:03 - Lessons for growth investors from the 2022 bear market  42:59 - A stock to buy and hold for the next five years

If there is one theme that has taken the world by storm in 2024, it's Artificial Intelligence or AI.  Until very recently, this week's guest was a bit of a sceptic, but a recent trip to the US has seen him come back a changed man. In this episode, we'll be sitting down with investment adviser Ben Clark of TMS Capital. We'll be learning about the wonderful world of growth investments, the key technological innovations that have him excited and his top holy grail stocks.  Here's a sneak peek of what you can expect... 

If there is any one investment product that has experienced a true boom over the last 10 years, it is exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) more broadly.  The number of listed products has increased by 17.5 times in Australia during the last decade alone. More than 300 products are now listed across the ASX and CBOE exchanges and two million Australians have at least one ETF in their portfolio. And, as if you need more proof of the growth of ETPs, 2024 marked the first time that inflows outpaced those going into unlisted managed funds.  So if we've seen this growth over the last decade, what could the next 10 years hold? In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we put this and other questions to Tamara Haban-Beer Stats, Director and ETF/Index Investments Specialist at BlackRock Australia. BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager and its ETF arm iShares runs 49 ETPs in the Australian market. In this episode, Tamara also discusses the key mega forces that BlackRock believes could drive markets over the long run, where they are overweight in portfolios and the asset classes they believe could see the biggest growth within ETPs over the coming years. Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 19 March 2024. Timestamps 0:00 - Intro 2:21 - BlackRock's outlook for the next 12 months 4:06 - What the new investing regime means for ETF investors 6:17 - The five "mega forces" of investing  9:13 - Currency impacts on ETF returns 10:27 - Will the Australian Dollar rebound in late 2024? 13:45 - Should investors consider hedged ETFs? 14:55 - Opportunities in Japan and the US 16:47 - Why the AI boom won't be early 2000 all over again 18:02 - The explosion of interest and uptake in ETFs 21:31 - The asset class that could gain the lion's share of growth in the future 23:17 - Other interesting innovations in the global ETF market 25:06 - Which products are seeing the most inflows and outflows in 2024? 27:31 - The Rules of Investing's regular questions (with an ETF twist)

Warryn Robertson, portfolio manager and analyst at Lazard Asset management, understands the nuances of infrastructure assets like few others in the market. His approach is to find monopoly assets with inflation protected revenues, high margins and reasonable leverage then buy them at attractive prices.  Of the 400 listed infrastructure stocks globally only 160 have passed the four filters and typically Lazard’s Global Listed Infrastructure Fund will own just 25 to 30 of those companies. Given the attractive nature of infrastructure assets it is unsurprising that sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms are also circling these assets. Robertson estimates that of the 160 stocks that meet his criteria 25 have been taken private and delisted.  The situation in Australia is even more challenging, of the 14 infrastructure and utility stocks on the ASX valued at more than $1 billion just four meet Warren’s criteria as being ‘preferred infrastructure’. The good news is that Robertson is a firm believer and concentrating your capital into your best ideas. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Warryn Robertson reviews the recent performance of that asset class through an inflationary environment, explains why US utilities look vulnerable and shares what he believes are the best opportunities in infrastructure.  Robertson also reveals what he regards as the top infrastructure stock on the ASX and an infrastructure company with an absolutely stunning earnings outlook.

"Living Legend", "One of a kind", and "Diamond in the Rough are not terms usually bandied about when describing economists! But these are just a few of the hundreds of messages of support and appreciation that flooded a recent social media post recognising the 40-year tenure Dr Shane Oliver to AMP. Shane has dedicated his years to educating Australians on all matters of the economy. His style tends to be glass half full, and you'll rarely hear him pushing doomsday forecasts. He also possesses an uncanny ability to make complex matters easy to understand and is usually armed with some cracking charts to drive home his points. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Shane explains why central banks are close to pulling off Mission Impossible and avoiding recession. He believes interest rates have peaked and will drift lower as inflation returns to the RBA's target range. The episode also touches on a range of issues, including population growth, housing affordability and Australia's exposure to the Chinese economy.   

If you’re looking for the future blue chips of the ASX then Washington H Soul Pattinson might be worth a closer look. The company has been around for more than a century, has never missed a dividend payment but, for the most part, has flown under investor radars. That is starting to change following the tie up with Milton Corporation in 2021, which has helped to propel Soul Patts’s market cap over $12 bn and into the S&P/ASX 50. Soul Patts now sits alongside popular names including Mineral Resources, Car Group, ASX Ltd and Ramsay Healthcare.  Blue chip stocks are known to be large, reliable, profitable and consistent dividend payers. Soul Patts ticks most of these boxes with the exception of size perhaps. The merger with Milton brought an experienced investment team led by CEO and CIO Brendan O’Dea, 30,000 new shareholders and a $3.7bn large cap portfolio. O’Dea is now the Chief Investment Officer at Soul Patts and says the merger gives Soul Patts the platform required to build the next generation of investments that will sustain Soul Patts enviable track record of shareholder returns. “There’s a real desire on our part to seed the strategic assets of the future and a lot of that is going to come out of that private portfolio.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Brendan O’Dea takes Livewire’s James Marlay on a tour of the Soul Patts investment portfolio covering their large cap, emerging and strategic equity portfolios.  O’Dea also shares Soul Patts’ unique approach to capital allocation, the asset classes commanding their attention and why you should expect to see more big strategic investments in the years ahead.

The structural forces that saw growth investing rise to the top after the GFC remain. Covid created a blip, but the world is returning to slow growth, low inflation and lower interest rates. That's the perspective of Jason Orthman, the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Brisbane-based Hyperion Asset Management.  Orthman says that neither you, me, nor our grandchildren are likely to experience an environment like 2022, where rapid interest rate hikes rocked long-duration assets such as government bonds and growth equities.  "2022 was an incredibly unusual period. We've looked at markets over the last 250 years, and you haven't seen interest rates at the long end move quickly to that level over 250 years of data. We believe it's a one-in-250-year event," says Orthman. Structural forces, including ageing populations and the rise of automation, will continue to create a disinflationary and low-growth world in the decades to come. This backdrop means that those rare companies that can grow at rates well ahead of GDP can provide investors with exceptional returns.  Orthman and the Hyperion team have a disciplined approach to finding these rare gems, starting with twelve structural growth trends, such as productivity, the shift towards artificial intelligence (AI), and banking and payments. These parts of the economy are likely to grow and present fertile ground for finding future blue-chip companies.  In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Ortham speaks with Livewire's James Marlay about Hyperion's approach to growth investing, the wild ride of 2022 and the long-term opportunities the firm has identified.  Orthman also shares what he describes as 'one of the most important investments' the firm has ever made, what investors are missing about the Tesla story and two companies he believes are poised for significant revenue growth over the next decade.

Each year, Barron's releases a list of Australia's Top 100 Financial Advisers. Pitcher Partners' Charlie Viola and Lipman and Burgon Partners' Paul Burgon have featured high on this list over the years, and both ranked in the top 10 in 2023. As part of Livewire's Outlook Series for 2024, Livewire's James Marlay hosted an in-depth panel discussion exploring how these two investing gurus are allocating capital on behalf of their clients in 2024. Whilst there is no 'one size fits all' when it comes to investing, there are nuggets of insight from this session that can help all investors. Click here to access the charts discussed in this episode and a summary of the discussion  Timecodes 0:00 - Introducing the experts 0:49 - Charlie Viola’s top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 3:20 - Paul Burgon’s top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 6:15 - Asset classes where Paul and Charlie are overweight or underweight 9:53 - Why Private Markets will play a bigger role in portfolios in 2024 and beyond 12:40 - Charlie Viola’s Asset Allocation framework for 2024 16:33 - Paul’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation frameworks for 2024 22:26 - How these advisers are innovating in 2024 25:50 - Four investing traps to avoid in 2024

Two years ago, on a trip to Perth, Yarra Capita’s Dion Hershan was pitched the case for lithium stocks by his Uber driver. Hershan says it was a cliche moment and a classic example of a ‘ringing the bell’ sign. On the flip side, there are moments when deciding to invest causes your stomach to churn and your hands to quiver. “Some of the best ideas I’ve had in my career were when my stomach churned and my hands trembled when I put the trade on. That’s often a good lead indicator.” Recent investments in fallen angel ResMed (ASX: RMD) and an overweight position in the beaten down REITs sector are two examples Hershan provides of how Yarra is taking long-term counter-consensus thinking. This counter-consensus thinking also applies to the companies Hershan and his team are cautious about, which include large parts of the ASX20, including resources and banks. Hershan says that while these companies may not fall out of the top 20, their best days are likely behind them. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Hershan talks about the lessons from working inside the most successful global hedge fund, why he is cautious about the outlook for blue chips and the companies he thinks represent the best long-term opportunities for the slow grind that lies ahead.   Timestamps 0:00 - Introduction 3:06 - How Dion caught the investing bug 4:40 - Lessons from working at Citadel 8:35 - Why macro matters for Australian equity investors 11:08 - The raging debate taking place at Yarra Capital 14:30 - How much pain will consumers feel in 2024 17:29 - Why you should be complacent about blue chip stocks 22:05 - The best opportunities Yarra is finding on the ASX 24:57 - A fallen angel that Yarra thinks can rebound 26:52 - The thesis for being overweight REITs 36:00 - What investors are getting wrong in markets today 37:15 - Lessons from an early win 38:32 - Two stocks Dion would be happy to back if the market shut for 5 years Related Articles   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/five-themes-on-our-shopping-list    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/avoiding-the-blue-chips-heading-for-small-cap-status

The penny has dropped and thanks to a three-letter word from the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision ("any"), small caps both in the US and in Australia have started to rocket out of a long slumber. For most of the last 18 months, small cap performance at an index level has been smashed thanks to the soaring cost of capital. But now that markets have called central banks' bluff, we're entering what Ben Griffiths of Eley Griffiths Group calls a "pause rally" - the kind of rally that has a lot of cash looking for a new home. "I'm not for a second suggesting that the lunatics are out of the asylum but there has been some stability and sentiment is such that you can sketch out a constructive path for equities. There's a buoyant time ahead for us," Griffiths said. Another worthwhile indicator of the return of risk is the IPO market - and as Griffiths knows all too well, the phone calls have dried up considerably. And while the phone is not ringing off the hook yet, he does see some signs that listing activity is itching for a rebound. "There were a number of IPOs that were slated for transacting and listing before Christmas that have now been pushed into March. These will be extra well sought after in March - or certainly pre-June 2024," he said.  In this, our second last episode of The Rules of Investing for 2023, James Marlay sits down with Griffiths for an extended conversation about the smaller end of the market. Hear about some of the companies that stood out from the recent AGM season, how Griffiths is investing in light of a "higher for longer" rate environment, and why he's dipping his toes into a well-known company that fell from darling to dog. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Three macro signals Ben pays attention to - and what these are saying about the markets 4:45 - Is risk back and is the "pause rally" underway? 8:44 - Was October 30th 2023 the day the market declared the war on inflation over? 10:16 - What are you hearing about the appetite for more ASX IPOs? 14:00 - What are the drivers of the divergence between large cap and small cap performance - and when will it turn? 18:00 - The ASX companies which stood out from the November AGM season - Breville Group (ASX: BRG), Boral (ASX: BLD), Ridley Corporation (ASX: RIC) 19:16 - Portfolio construction and stock picks for a "higher for longer" interest rate environment - Monadelphous (ASX: MND), ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB), Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM), Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD), Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) 21:53 - Stocks where margins may have not bottomed out yet - Auckland International Airport (ASX: AIA) and Worley (ASX: WOR) 22:20 - Portfolio construction for the new Eley Griffiths Group mid-cap fund: Audinate (ASX: AD8), Temple and Webster (ASX: TPW), Codan (ASX: CDA) 23:06 - A closer look at Boral and the impact of new CEO Vik Bansal 26:05 - A closer look at one unloved area of the market: REITs 27:52 - Consumer finance stocks have been the subject of investor "angst": Judo Bank (ASX: JDO), Latitude Financial (ASX: LFS), Pepper Money (ASX: PPM), Liberty Financial (ASX: LFG) 29:12 - What would it take for you to turn more positive on these smashed sectors? 31:48 - Why Eley Griffiths Group is launching a new mid-cap fund now 34:34 - Some of the mid-cap fund's early core holdings: CAR Group (ASX: CAR), GQG Partners (ASX: GQG), Genesis Minerals, Boral, Auckland International Airport, Worley 35:37 - The Rules of Investing's three regular questions

Culture is not something that immediately springs to mind when assessing a company and its prospects for the future. More often than not, we investors are scouring profit and loss statements, comparing financial ratios and (if we have the time and skill) constructing valuation models. However, good culture is critical in a business; it takes a long time to build and is hard to maintain. And yet, it can take as little as one rogue employee to upset the delicate balance and ruin it completely. This is something that Qiao Ma, portfolio manager for the Munro Global Growth Small and Mid-Cap Fund, is intimately aware of. As Ma revealed, if she determines that the culture is wrong when conducting her due diligence of a company, despite everything else looking good, she is walking away. No 'ifs'. No 'buts'. She's not investing in that company.  "When it’s the wrong culture, it’s 100% of the [investment] decision," she said.  Culture is the ultimate forward-looking indicator of where a company is going. It does not matter, the past glory it was able to achieve. If you have the wrong culture, you have no space." In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Chris Conway learns more about Ma’s investment philosophy, how it has developed over the years, and her outlook for growth investing – particularly in the small and mid-cap space. Ma also shares a handful of stocks she likes right now and the types of opportunities she is hunting for over the next 12 months.    Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro 0:47 - How Qiao Ma's investment philosophy has developed over time  3:33 - Value versus growth  3:58 - On working at Lehman Brothers during the GFC  5:57 - The best lessons from investment legend Peter Cooper: The importance of culture  9:13 - How much culture should play into investment decision-making  10:59 - Qiao's most memorable stock picks from her career 12:49 - The biggest surprises in markets from the last two years  14:38 - The outlook on growth for the next 12-24 months  17:57 - The major risks the Munro team is spending the most time debating 23:43 - The catalyst for small and mid caps to rebound  24:25 - A stock that can fund its own growth: JD Sports (LON: JD)  28:02 - Why earnings durability is so important  29:18 - A high-conviction stock pick for the year ahead: On Holding (NYSE: ONON) 30:31 - The Rules of Investing's 3 common questions  ____________________________________________________________ Disclaimer:   The information provided by Munro Partners is general information only and is not intended to include, or constitute as, financial product advice. The views held by Munro Partners are current at the time of recording and are subject to change. Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this document is accurate at the time of publication. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. This information has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. You should obtain independent advice from a licenced professional adviser before making any investment decision. Information about the Munro funds, including the product disclosure statements (PDS) for the Munro Funds is available at www.munropartners.com.au. Munro Partners is a corporate authorised representative of Munro Asset Management Limited, AFSL 480509.

Qiao Ma has had an extensive career in funds management including stops in New York working for hedge fund Jericho Capital and more recently Cooper Investors in Melbourne.   Earlier this year, Qiao joined Munro Partners, where it was recently announced that she would be leading the Munro Partners Global Growth and Mid-Cap Fund.    On the upcoming episode of the Rules of Investing – Qiao shares what it was like starting her career during the GFC, why she likes the small and mid-cap space, as well as a few of her favourite stocks.    Here's a preview of what you can expect.

From geopolitics to fiscal policy, commodities to equities, this week's featured guest on The Rules of Investing has some high-conviction views on a whole range of subjects.  For more than 40 years, Donald Amstad traded his way through the highs and lows of financial markets. After completing his undergraduate studies at Oxford University, Amstad began his career at Japanese trading house Nomura. He went on to hold roles at JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management, and the Bank of America before spending the last 15 years of his career at Aberdeen Standard (now, abrdn).  And although he may be a fixed income specialist by trade, you would be wise to listen to Amstad's interviews on many other subjects.  Long-time readers and viewers of Livewire may have already seen some of Amstad's thoughts on the markets. In 2019, Amstad was a participant in Livewire's Expert Insights series. One of his videos has garnered more than 800,000 views since it was first uploaded - the most of any Livewire video ever.  In the four years since that video was recorded, so much has changed in the world. Among them are the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapidly changing geopolitical situation to the slow (and ongoing death) of quantitative easing. But even as the world has changed, Amstad's core views on some of the most pressing challenges of our time have not. In fact, they have strengthened. This week, Livewire's Hans Lee sat down with Amstad for a half-hour conversation on the big picture issues that are driving markets - and the issues that are not driving markets (yet). This is a conversation you cannot afford to miss.  Note: This interview was conducted on Tuesday 7 November 2023. 

Despite all of his success, Morry Waked has remained relatively under the radar. He’s not one to boast of his achievements, and he’s very rarely fronted the media. At Livewire, we dedicate ourselves to finding the best fund managers in Australia - and in a testament to how underground Morry is, he hadn’t even popped up on our radar. Last week, however, Morry found himself thrust into the spotlight and was inducted into the Australian Fund Manager Hall of Fame - joining a now 22-name strong list of the country's most recognisable fund managers such as Kerr Neilson, Chris Cuffe, Anton Tagliaferro, Catherine Allfrey, Phil King and many more. What’s unique, is that all 21 other names on this list are fundamental investors. This is the first time that someone who employs a quantitative, or systematic approach to investing, as Morry describes it, has been added to the Hall of Fame. In this episode, Morry sits down with Livewire's Ally Selby for a look at his remarkable career, a deep dive into quantitative investing, as well as some of the insights that Morry's models have identified today.  Note: This interview was recorded on Thursday 26 October 2023.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/invest-in-what-you-know-avoid-what-you-don-t-lessons-from-a-hall-of-fame-fund-manager/  Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  2:59 - Fate and purpose: How Morry fell into funds management 3:59 - On trying to educate investors on his quantitative/systematic strategy 5:45 - Morry's career journey  7:02 - The greatest lessons from Morry's career so far  8:50 - Markets and models change, but Morry's philosophy doesn't 10:35 - On using Artificial Intelligence in investing  11:16 - A beginner's guide to quantitative/systematic investing  12:58 - Common misconceptions  13:56 - The importance of remaining unemotional when investing  15:05 - Where we are in the cycle today  17:43 - Where Morry and the Vinva team see opportunity both locally and abroad  19:07 - Why these models give Vinva a leg up on the competition 22:17 - ROI's common questions: What the market is getting wrong and lessons from wins and losses from Morry's career

The times when a company is dominating headlines (for all the wrong reasons) are the best time to buy.  Take Medibank Private (ASX: MPL), for example, which you may remember, was embroiled in a data breach in October 2022.  On the news, the stock's share price plummeted more than 20%. And while it still hasn't retraced its steps to its prior glory, astute investors who picked up the private health insurance provider on the cheap would have since enjoyed a return of around 22%.  Today, there are two businesses on the ASX that are similarly making headlines: ResMed (ASX: RMD) and Qantas (ASX: QAN). And while one of these businesses is likely to continue to face headwinds going forward, the other could just be the "most outstanding buy idea on the ASX" today.  That's according to Airlie Funds Management's Emma Fisher, who believes if a company's balance sheet is intact, times of "maximum pain" are usually an investor's best indicator that a business is a buy.  In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby learns where Emma is seeing the most value on the ASX today, why the data proves it pays to be bullish on the stock market over the long term, what separates the good investors from the great ones, as well as a deep dive on why the team is still buying CSL (ASX: CSL) despite downgrading the stock.  Plus, she also shares why she believes the market is focusing far too much on the macro, as well as the stock she would back if the market were to close for the next five years.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 September 2023.    Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  1:26 - How Emma Fisher thinks about investing  4:06 - Why we need a reality check 6:45 - What keeps Emma Fisher inspired  9:42 - The biggest changes in the Airlie Australian Share Fund portfolio and key lessons from the past two years in markets  13:11 - Portfolio holdings that have been more resilient than expected: James Hardie (ASX: JHX)  14:20 - Why being bearish may sound smart, but being bullish makes money  17:01 - Times of maximum fear are the best times to make money: The Medibank (ASX: MPL) example  19:57 - Emma's analysis of Qantas (ASX: QAN) and ResMed (ASX: RMD) 27:07 - What separates the good investors from the exceptional ones - and it's not a high IQ 29:37 - The biases Emma has learnt to manage - and how you can too  32:03 - Where Emma is seeing the most value today 37:45 - Analysis of CSL and the Vifor acquisition  42:46 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets  43:48 - A story of a big loss from Emma's career and what she learnt from it  46:12 - Why cashflow is paramount  46:35 - One stock that Emma would hold if the markets were to close for five years: ResMed (ASX: RMD)

Matthew Kidman is a well-known entity to readers of Livewire, as host of Success and More Interesting Stuff, Buy Hold Sell, and most recently, Livewire Live. Finally, we got him in the hot seat to run us through his own journey into funds management, his approach to investing, and the way he’s thinking about markets today. From hard truths on a squash court to starting his own shop, Centennial Asset Management, Matt’s story is one of happenstance. It’s also a story about the importance of mentors and networks. To steal a line from Top Gun, the list is long but distinguished. Geoff Wilson, John Sevior, Anton Tagliaferro and Peter Morgan, to name but a few. Their influence can be seen in the way Matt runs Centennial Asset Management and its Level 18 Fund. While it focuses on value and small caps, it’s got a highly flexible mandate that lets it ride momentum when the market is on, go short when it’s not, and preserve capital when crises hit.  We cover all these topics, and more, in this bumper episode. Note: this episode was recorded on September 20, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 2:16 - Hard truths on a squash court 5:50 - Getting a start in journalism 6:30 - Landing book deals with Geoff Wilson 16:30 - 13 years at Wilson Asset Management 20:30 - Taking time off to do a PhD 22:30 - Mentors in finance 26:20 - Bottoms don't have to be V-shaped 29:50 - Key lead indicators 33:40 - From hard landing, to soft landing, to no landing 36:30 - China's in the hurt locker 41:00 - Buying growth 43:50 - Financials 45:30 - A flexible mandate 47:40 - Hiding in large caps 51:30 - Riding a market bounce with smalls 54:20 - Moving into quality 58:30 - Is lithium crowded? 01:01:27 - Watch rates 01:06:16 - Bottom drawer stock WANT ACCESS TO STOCK IDEAS? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

Short sellers have had a tough time of it over the past decade. The era of free money lifted all boats, including companies that would perhaps otherwise be candidates for short selling.  Today's market is radically different. Central banks have lifted rates in a desperate attempt to control inflation. Global equity markets have performed well, but much of that performance can be attributed to the tech titans of the Nasdaq.  Consumers have less money to spend, while costs are up and top line revenue is down.  This is fertile hunting ground for short sellers.  Short selling is risky, and beyond the capacity of most normal investors. But that doesn't mean that normal investors can't take on board short seller's methods and positions, and steer clear of certain companies accordingly.  I speak to a lot of hedge fund managers about their methods, however most aren't willing or able to expose their actual short positions.  Dr David Allen, who manages Plato's Global Alpha Fund, has no such qualms.  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, hosted by David Thornton, Allen explains his red flag system for identifying shorts and some of the companies it's identified. He also discusses his his long process, which draws on elements of growth, value and quality. And it wouldn't be an episode of ROI without Allen naming some of the companies he has conviction in right now.  Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday September 19, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 2:00 - Life as a professional athlete 3:20 - JP Morgan (and surviving the GFC) 8:00 - Combining growth, value and quality 16:00 - A red flag system for finding shorts 20:40 - The most common red flag in today's market 21:55 - Two high conviction shorts on the ASX 26:00 - Access to the C-suite isn't what it used to be 27:00 - Is Qantas (ASX: QAN) a bargain or value trap? 34:55 - Does nVidia deserve its valuation? 37:57 - You don't need to be concentrated to generate returns 39:17 - A humbling experience 43:30 - This drug will change the face of healthcare   WANT ACCESS TO STOCK IDEAS? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

We're constantly told that diversification is the only free lunch in finance. Yet most of the world's top investors choose not to eat it.  Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, John Maynard Keynes, Lou Simpson, George Soros. All run concentrated portfolios. Today's guest on the Rules of Investing is similarly esteemed, with a similarly concentrated portfolio.  Claremont's Bob Desmond runs a portfolio of just 10-15 "quality growth" stocks. And many of the stocks he owned during the 'free money' period of high liquidity and high growth are the same stocks he owns today.  In today's episode, Bob explains why quality growth is the best strategy in all markets, why investors shouldn't react to "bear porn" headlines, why nVidia might not be overpriced despite its recent run, and the one stock he would love to own "forever".    Note: This episode was recorded on Monday September 11, 2023.     Timestamps 0:00 - START 1:46 - Surprises and uncertainty 2:46 - Is nVidia overvalued? 8:14 - Predicting the future is a mug's game 9:40 - Trouble at Apple 12:09 - Markets change, so pick companies that [mostly] stay the same 15:40 - Forever stocks 17:41 - High conviction bias 21:50 - When's the right time to sell? 26:50 - Don't get sucked in to "bear porn" headlines 28:30 - Do investors sell out of growth too soon? 34:10 - Sidestepping the GFC 35:30 - Quality is armageddon armour 41:01 - A bullet proof business model Want access to stock ideas? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

We're constantly told that diversification is the only free lunch in finance. Yet most of the world's top investors choose not to eat it. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, John Maynard Keynes, Lou Simpson, George Soros. All run concentrated portfolios. The guest on this week’s episode of the Rules of Investing is similarly esteemed, with a similarly concentrated portfolio.  Claremont Global's Bob Desmond runs a portfolio of just 10-15 "quality growth" stocks.   What's more of the stocks he owned during the 'free money' period of high liquidity and high growth are the same stocks he owns today. In today's episode, Bob explains why quality growth is the best strategy in all markets, why investors shouldn't react to the news cycle, why nVidia might not be overpriced despite its enormous run, and the one stock he would love to own "forever".    Here's a preview of what you can expect.