Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

What impact (if any) will the Trump victory have on Federal Reserve policy? Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here. And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career. We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman. He warns that "everything is overpriced" that it will be "damn near impossible" to continue the current high levels of deficit spending without restoking inflation. It would not surprise him to see a 30-50% downwards correction in financial asset prices begin next year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #debtcrisis #deficit --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in July, he shared that he had just closed out all his longs and moved to cash. That moved paid off, as the S&P fell over 300 points in the following few weeks. Stocks rebounded after the sell-off and have powered higher up to today, now back near all-time highs. So what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next? Especially with volatility elevated, both in stocks as measured by the VIX and in bonds as measured by the MOVE index. To find out, we'll now hear from the man himself. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #technicalanalysis #bullmarket #volatility --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #election2024 #magnificent7 #payrolls --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The stock market has hit another all-time high this week, and Wall Street's profits for 2024 are off the charts -- nearly TWICE as high as last year's. Meanwhile, the wealth divide in America continues to widen as average folks struggle with the post-COVID surge in cost of living and record high interest rates on their debt. What does this growing difference between the haves and have-nots say about fairness in today's society? And how much farther can it be stretched before some financial and/or social boiling over point is reached? For perspective, we're fortunate to speak today with Nomi Prins, reformed Wall Streeter, author of best-sellers All The Presidents Bankers, Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged The World, and Permanent Distortion: How the Financial Markets Abandoned The Real Economy Forever. She's also the publisher of Prinsights with Nomi Prins on Substack. Follow Nomi at https://prinsights.substack.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #banks #wealthgap #wallstreet --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We've had two excellent years of returns in the stock market. Can that winning streak continue into 2025? And in less than a week, we should know who the next President of the United States is. How should investors alter their position based on who the winner is. For answers, we're going to find out how the big players -- those managing tens of billions of dollars in client capital -- are allocating their portfolios right now. And we'll ask: what can the regular retail investor learn from their strategy? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Chris Brightman to the program today. Chris is the CEO & CIO of Research Affiliates, and along with Rob Arnott, is co-portfolio manager on the PIMCO All Asset and All Asset All Authority funds and the PIMCO RAE™ funds To give you a sense of the impressive scope of Chris' work, around $150 billion in assets are managed worldwide using investment strategies developed by Research Affiliates. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #deficit #debtcrisis #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We find ourselves in a time of transition, one that may increasingly be later described as upheaval. In a week, we'll have a new US President, which will bring change both to the US and to geopolitics. We already have a new interest rate regime as the world's major central banks have pivoted back to cutting rates. And we may be seeing the start of a new era in bond yields, which have been marching higher despite the wishes of the central planners. If this continues as a secular trend, this higher cost of debt could prove destabilizing the world's hundreds of $trillions in debt and entitlement programs. To find out where this all is likely headed, and what investors should be tracking most we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program. #bonds #interestrates #debtcrisis --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

It's certainly an interesting time in the markets. The world's major central banks have returned to cutting interest rates. Yet bond yields are rising on the long end. Meanwhile, risk on assets are in rally mode. Stocks are back at all-time highs. Yet so is gold, the grand-daddy of risk off assets. To make sense of all of this, we're fortunate to speak today with capital managers David Hay and Jeff Dick of Evergreen Gavekal. David is its Chief Investment Officer & Principal and Jeff is a Managing Director and Partner there. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #volatility #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks. That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often. And...it ended yesterday. Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts would not be surprised to see a near-term pullback deepen from here, especially given how close the US presidential election is at this point. It would be very rational for fund managers to lock in some of the near-term gains they've just enjoyed and de-risk from here, to wait until the dust settles after the election. We discuss the odds of that that, as well as the continued rise in bond yields, Lance's latest trades, and the seeds that sowed the American Revolution in this week's Market Recap. #bullmarket #bondyields #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, she made the somewhat heretical prediction that when the Fed started cutting interest rates, it would set off a chain of events that were likely to prove more restrictive than its tightening policy. Well, here we are 6 months later, and the Fed has indeed started cutting interest rates and yet longer duration bond yields and mortgage rates are....higher?? So, is her prediction coming true? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, back to the program today. We'll also hear her market outlook, as stock bulls are clearly in risk on mode right now. Cameron thinks they may continuing stampeding higher for a while. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #volatility #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Well, the Fall Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Fred Hickey, Thomas Hoenig, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Michael Pento, Michael Lebowitz, Steven Bavaria, Brent Johnson, Lyn Alden, Melody Wright, Rick Rule, Lance Roberts, New Harbor Financial and Jonathan Wellum. For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights. And for details on the New Harbor event in Concord, MA on Oct 24th, go to https://newharborfinancial.regfox.com/the-new-harbor-summit-new-england #recession #interestrates #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election. Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue. Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic, social and political implications of this wave of bodies, and wonder if America can effectively absorb & afford them. I recognize this is a quite sensitive topic, one that some would say is outside of the purview of this channel. But this issue does have important economic implications, and from what I hear from viewers, many regular Americans feel they just don't have a good sense of the facts on this situation. So that's why I'm sitting down today with Dr Steven Camarota, who serves as the Director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a non-partisan Washington, D.C.-based research institute that examines the consequences of legal and illegal immigration on the United States. We're going to do our best to lay out the facts of the situation at our borders, in as non-partisan, respectful and impartial a manner as possible #illegalimmigration #bordersecurity #immigration 0:00 Context For The Discussion 7:00 How The Legal Immigration System Works (And Doesn't) 21:01 How Big Is The Flow Of Illegal Immigrants? 26:50 Why Do We Grant Illegals Work Authorization? 31:04 How "Remain In America" Works 40:08 Will Illegals Impact Future US Elections? 44:28 Why Allow *Any* Illegal Immigration Vs Expanding Legal Immigration? 47:37 Charts Visualizing The Recent Surge In Illegal Immigration 1:01:15 Education Level Differential Between Legal & Illegal Immigrants 1:07:49 Are Illegals Taking Jobs From Working US Citizens? 1:20:20 Can The US Afford To Absorb The Current Volumes Of Illegals? 1:26:23 What Is The Crime Risk From Illegals? 1:35:59 Are Mass Deportations Feasible? 1:40:00 What Reforms To Our Immigration System Would Be Wise To Consider? --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered. All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking overbought and some sort of pullback feels warranted. Lance and I talk about this potential run-up into the end of the year, as well as rising liquidity, credit spreads, earning estimates, volatility and much more in this week's Market Recap. BUY THE REPLAY of the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #liquidity #volatility #bullmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When today's guest was on this channel back in March, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years. And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead. Well, here in the final quarter of Q4 2024, things so far have played out according to his script. So will the good times continue into 2025? Maybe not, says Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital. He sees good change the liquidity tide could start receding as debt refinancings suck capital from the system. As a result, he thinks 2025 will be a MUCH bumpier ride for investors (and 2026 likely even worse). WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #liquidity #debtcrisis #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Banking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and that mortgage rates will rise back above 7% #mortgagerates #interestrates #federalreserve --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2025, and with it a new US presidential administration I might add, it helps to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is Jim Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. Jim is concerned that history is clear about the path we're taking. First, the debt starts to run out of control. That leads governments to try to contain the contagion with currency exchange controls. As those fail, countries fall into a full-blown debt crisis. And ultimately, that results in a currency crisis that wipes out purchasing power. Will we avoid that fate? WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debtcrisis #commodities #goldprice --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023. Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue? Stocks are richly priced here. And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal). So investors need to determine how much risk they want to take to pursue upside from here vs the growing risks of overvaluation. Lance and I discuss this, as well as this week's new inflation data, bonds and the wisdom of Howard Marks in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #inflation #technicalanalysis --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

2024 has been a good year for the bulls. And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. Bill is watching bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to revolt against the Fed's rate new rate cutting plans. He's been waiting for years for the moment when bond investors lose confidence in central planners' ability to tame inflation as well as reign in deficit spending. Bill thinks we might have just reached that point. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #interestrates #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Gold has been one of the best performing assets in 2024 so far. It's up over 27% since the start of the year and recently hit a record high. And with the central banks of the worlds largest economies -- the US, China and the EU -- now all cutting interest rates, will that add further fuel to gold's breakout? For answers to all things gold, silver and the companies that mine them, we're fortunate to speak with Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, publisher of GoldNewsleter.com and producer of the excellent New Orleans Investment Conference. Brien thinks that, if this current gold bull cycle acts like previous ones in history, that should bring the price of gold eventually up to $6,000/oz (or higher) REGISTER FOR BRIEN'S CONFERENCE at https://neworleansconference.com/tm1 #goldprice #silverprice #preciousmetals --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support