Adam Posen Has a Warning on the Danger of Bidenomics
Description
The Biden administration has undertaken an aggressive effort to revitalize domestic manufacturing, particularly in areas like semiconductors and green technology. The reasons are manifold. The pandemic exposed frailties in the supply chain. Climate concerns have accelerated the urgency around the energy transition. And anxiety about growing Chinese dominance in key areas (such as batteries) has heightened geopolitical concerns. So now, day after day, we see spates of announcements of new factories being opened up in these areas. But what are the risks and dangers to this approach? On this episode of the podcast, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who now serves as president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He warns that the basic logic for this domestic industrial policy is misguided and based on a faulty understanding of domestic economic dynamics. He also says that we're taking a wrong and dangerous approach to dealing with perceived competitive threats from China.
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Mr. Posen seems to have forgotten how we got to the current state of affairs in which a tiny, truly miniscule number of private investors benefitted enormously from lax government policies with respect to investment in China while neglecting to invest in the US manufacturing sector. This was done to leverage cheap, slave-like labor in China to increase investor value. It worked by crushing American industrial workers and enriching that tiny fraction of those already wealthy few to levels beyond imagining. In return for this loss of manufacturing jobs, Americans were promised high paying tech jobs and some Americans got those, but not those factory workers who did not have the STEM skills to benefit. This new policy assumes that China will not itself change how it conducts its own industrial policy. With its huge advantage in size, it will quickly adapt and catch up to the small advantage the US has in tech and may surpass us. Meanwhile, Posen ignores the real elephant in the room, the