Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]
Digest
This podcast features an in-depth conversation with Cliff Sosen, a value investor, about his investment approach and his experience with Carvana. Sosen's philosophy centers on identifying "contained" businesses—those resistant to rapid technological or societal change—with durable competitive advantages. He uses economic models like Cournot oligopoly and psychological frameworks like secondary reinforcers to analyze companies. His Carvana investment serves as a case study, detailing the company's operational challenges in 2022, including logistical bottlenecks exacerbated by the Omicron variant and decreased demand due to chip shortages, rising interest rates, and the saturation of early adopters. The acquisition of DESA, a traditional auction business, played a crucial role in addressing Carvana's logistical issues. Sosen discusses his decision-making process during the crisis, emphasizing the importance of strong management teams and a nuanced approach to concentrated investments. The conversation also touches upon ESG considerations in investing, the impact of AI on the investment landscape, and the future of the US market. Sosen's journey from high-frequency trading to long-term value investing is also highlighted, emphasizing the principal-agent problem within traditional finance.
Outlines

Introduction: Life's Work, Investing, and Carvana
The episode introduces the concept of "life's work" in investing and entrepreneurship, focusing on companies with dedicated founders and a clear mission. It then introduces Cliff Sosen and his Carvana investment.

Cliff Sosen's Investment Journey and Philosophy
Sosen's career path from engineering to finance is detailed, explaining his shift to long-term value investing and his departure from short-term strategies due to principal-agent problems.

Launching His Firm and Early Investor Relations
Sosen describes launching his firm with $5.2 million in seed capital, his approach to securing funding, and the challenges of communicating a long-term value investing strategy.

Sosen's Investment Approach: Identifying Great Businesses
Sosen explains his investment philosophy, emphasizing the identification of a small number of publicly traded businesses with long-term potential, focusing on "contained" businesses with durable competitive advantages. He defines "contained" businesses and discusses identifying competitive advantages.

ESG Considerations and the Carvana Investment
Sosen discusses his perspective on ESG factors, arguing against imposing personal ethical frameworks and emphasizing legal compliance and market-based risk assessment. The discussion then shifts to a detailed analysis of his Carvana investment, covering its history, growth trajectory, 2022 challenges, and subsequent recovery.

Carvana's 2022 Crisis and Operational Bottlenecks
The episode details Carvana's operational challenges in 2021-2022, including increased car purchases overwhelming their logistics system, leading to significant delays and decreased sales. The impact of Omicron is also discussed.

Carvana's DESA Acquisition and its Impact
The discussion covers Carvana's acquisition of DESA and its impact on improving logistics and storage, addressing a key weakness in their operations.

Underlying Factors Contributing to Carvana's Decline
Three major factors contributing to Carvana's demand problem are identified: chip shortages, rising interest rates, and the unique situation of early adopters pulling forward their demand.

The Role of Early Adopters in Carvana's Growth and Decline
The speaker explains Carvana's growth model, highlighting the importance of early adopters and word-of-mouth marketing, and how a surge in 2021 led to a lull in 2022.

The Investor's Decision-Making Process During the Crisis
The investor details his investment decisions throughout Carvana's decline, explaining his reasoning and the psychological toll.

Lessons Learned and Future Investment Strategies
The investor reflects on lessons learned from the Carvana experience, emphasizing the importance of management teams and a nuanced approach to concentrated investments.

AI's Impact on Investing and the Future US Market
The conversation concludes with a discussion on the impact of artificial intelligence on investing and the future of the US market.
Keywords
Life's Work
A career or endeavor pursued with intense dedication and long-term commitment.
Contained Business
A business whose success is relatively insulated from rapid technological or societal changes.
Carvana
An online used car retailer whose investment is analyzed in detail.
Value Investing
An investment strategy focusing on identifying undervalued companies with long-term potential.
Long-Term Investing
An investment approach prioritizing long-term growth over short-term gains.
Principal-Agent Problem
A conflict of interest between a principal and an agent where incentives may not align.
Operational Efficiency
Maximizing output while minimizing waste and costs.
Early Adopter
Individuals who readily adopt new products or technologies.
ESG Factors
Environmental, social, and governance factors considered in investment decisions.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Investing
The application of AI algorithms to analyze market data and make investment decisions.
Q&A
What is Cliff Sosen's core investment philosophy?
Sosen focuses on long-term value investing in "contained" businesses with durable competitive advantages.
What are the key characteristics of a "contained" business?
"Contained" businesses are relatively immune to rapid technological or societal shifts and possess multiple, interwoven competitive advantages.
How did Cliff Sosen approach the Carvana investment?
Sosen's Carvana investment was based on recognizing the company's unique competitive advantages and strong management.
What were the major challenges faced by Carvana in 2022?
Carvana faced operational challenges, decreased demand due to external factors, and logistical bottlenecks.
What is Cliff Sosen's perspective on ESG factors in investment decisions?
Sosen prioritizes returns while ensuring legal compliance, cautioning against imposing personal ethical frameworks.
How did Carvana's acquisition of DESA impact its performance?
The DESA acquisition improved Carvana's logistics and storage, addressing a critical weakness.
What lessons did the investor learn from the Carvana experience?
The experience highlighted the importance of strong management, the difficulty of turning around unprofitable businesses, and a cautious approach to concentrated investments.
What is the potential impact of artificial intelligence on investing?
AI will likely enhance information processing and analysis, potentially leveling the playing field for investors.
Show Notes
My guest today is Cliff Sosin. Cliff is the founder of CAS Investment Partners, a fund he started with $5 million in 2012 and has grown to $1.7 billion as of the last reported numbers at the end of 2024. At the time, CAS had only four positions.
This conversation is different to our typical episodes. We start by talking about Cliff's investing philosophy but the bulk of this long discussion is a case study into his remarkable investment in Carvana. Cliff is one of the biggest investors in the business, which had a market cap over $60 billion in 2021, then fell 99%, survived, and now has a market cap approaching $50 billion again. While I hosted Carvana's CEO, Ernie Garcia, last year to get the inside perspective on managing through such turbulence, today we hear the investor's side of this extraordinary story. It is a singular episode and there are so many lessons in this rare opportunity to hear a major investor describe his decision-making process at every stage of the journey. Please enjoy my great conversation with Cliff Sosin.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00 ) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:05:32 ) Early Career and Discovering Investing
(00:06:49 ) Starting the Firm and Initial Challenges
(00:08:41 ) Investment Philosophy and Market Realities
(00:11:07 ) Building the Firm and Investor Relations
(00:12:23 ) Defining a Good Business
(00:17:31 ) Contained vs. Uncontained Businesses
(00:20:30 ) Mental Models and Market Insights
(00:35:13 ) The Role of ESG in Investing
(00:39:26 ) The Carvana Investment Story
(00:46:43 ) Carvana's Real Estate and Logistics Network
(00:49:12 ) Reconditioning and Selling Cars
(00:50:16 ) Carvana's Financing and Customer Service
(00:51:43 ) Economies of Scale and Trust
(00:54:40 ) Challenges and Management Insights
(01:04:07 ) Operational Issues and Market Challenges
(01:23:56 ) Questioning Carvana's Sales Strategy
(01:24:17 ) The Role of Word of Mouth in Carvana's Growth
(01:25:28 ) Identifying Early Adopters
(01:26:00 ) The Impact of Market Conditions on Carvana
(01:27:10 ) Carvana's Operational Challenges
(01:28:10 ) Cutting Costs and Organizational Efficiency
(01:32:19 ) The Apollo Deal and Debt Restructuring
(01:39:21 ) The Psychological Toll of Investment
(01:50:16 ) Future Investment Strategies and AI
(01:54:48 )The US Market and Investment Opportunities
(01:59:51 ) The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Ever Done For Cliff

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