Dream Podcast - NFL Wild-Card THE PICKS !!
Update: 2025-01-09
Description
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Wild-Card betting. The guys talk through each game and offer the best picks. Dave Essler also provides a best bet.
🏈 Key Game Analysis
Texans vs. Chargers
Steve Fezzik (3:28-6:41 ): Fezzik endorses Houston (+3), citing the strength of schedule trend (32-12 ATS for teams with significantly tougher schedules in Wild-Card games) and his power ratings favoring the Texans. He highlights the 15-spot schedule disparity (Houston: 14th, Chargers: 29th).
Scott Seidenberg (7:25-9:51 ): Seidenberg supports the Chargers, emphasizing Houston's weak offensive line (29th per PFF) and CJ Stroud's struggles against split-safety coverage (21st passer rating). The Chargers’ defensive scheme and top-4 efficiency against motion offenses are also noted.
RJ Bell (11:20-13:12 ): Bell debates Houston's perceived downturn but concludes Houston hasn't been atrocious, leaning toward the Texans based on line value.
Ravens vs. Steelers
Mackenzie Rivers (16:11-17:12 ): Rivers backs the Ravens (-9.5), emphasizing Baltimore’s league-best metrics and superior strength of schedule. Lamar Jackson's playoff dominance is noted.
Scott Seidenberg (19:04-21:11 ): Seidenberg highlights the Steelers' defensive decline (29th in EPA over the final three games) due to a diminished pass rush, advocating for the Ravens’ team total over 27.5.
Dave Essler (34:00-35:17 ): Essler favors Baltimore (-6 first half), citing a massive scoring disparity (+112 against playoff teams for Baltimore vs. -30 for Pittsburgh).
Betting Takeaways: The panel leans toward Baltimore's offensive success, with concerns about Pittsburgh's recent defensive struggles.
Broncos vs. Bills
Scott Seidenberg (42:09-44:17 ): Allen’s rushing prop (longest rush over 13.5 yards) is highlighted, with the Broncos’ blitzing tendencies creating opportunities for Allen to scramble effectively.
Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell (45:18-45:32 ): Discussion contrasts Allen’s rushing tendencies against dominant teams versus blowout scenarios, favoring over 41.5 total rushing yards.
Statistical Context: Buffalo’s balanced metrics place them as heavy favorites, but Denver's blitz rate and game script could lead to unexpected Allen rushing outcomes.
Packers vs. Eagles
RJ Bell (45:54-48:08 ): Bell emphasizes Green Bay’s defensive focus, favoring under 24.5 points for Philadelphia due to historical data showing teams losing consecutive games before playoffs clamp down defensively (12-3 ATS trend).
Scott Seidenberg (50:06-51:28 ): Seidenberg predicts a run-heavy game, backing Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts. Green Bay’s reliance on its running game is noted, especially with Jordan Love’s elbow issue.
Steve Fezzik (53:12-53:28 ): Strength of schedule disparity (Packers: 6th, Eagles: 32nd) further supports betting value on Green Bay.
Rams vs. Vikings
RJ Bell (1:12 :58-1:14:48 ): Bell highlights Minnesota’s overall consistency and coaching edge, favoring the Vikings despite red-zone struggles.
Mackenzie Rivers (1:15 :07-1:15:19 ): Points out the Rams' lack of offensive production in recent games, scoring just 12, 19, and 13 points.
Betting Context: Minnesota’s reliability against weaker teams and the Rams’ challenges with injuries and a poor defensive showing (worst in playoffs) position the Vikings as favorites.
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