RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Mackenzie Rivers and Scott Seidenberg drop a special episode for Super Bowl LIX. Don't miss out on all the picks and the same game parlay.

Key Takeaways & Insights

1. Super Bowl Betting Trends

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  Scott Seidenberg (3:31 - 4:05 ) introduces a 10-0 betting trend where teams that received a first-round bye (like the Chiefs) are 0-10 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl.


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  Steve Fezzik (5:17 - 5:36 ) cautions about the validity of the trend, pointing out that lower-seeded teams (3rd-6th seeds) making the Super Bowl often indicate undervaluation.


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  RJ Bell (8:56 - 9:04 ) states that in the current NFL playoff structure, upsets are more frequent, making pre-playoff seedings a weak indicator of true team strength.

2. Chiefs’ Strengths & Weaknesses

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  Mackenzie Rivers (12:46 - 12:58 ) mentions that Patrick Mahomes ranked 8th in QBR this season, which is a drop from his prime years.


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  RJ Bell (13:37 - 14:28 ) highlights Mahomes’ declining deep-ball passing (Average Depth of Target down from 9.7 yards to bottom five in the league).


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  Steve Fezzik (16:13 - 16:29 ) debates how small moments in past Super Bowls (like Jimmy Garoppolo missing a throw) shaped Mahomes' legacy, arguing that one play could have changed the narrative.

3. Eagles’ Strengths & Concerns

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  RJ Bell (15:31 - 16:13 ) argues that if the season were replayed, the Eagles would likely finish with a better record than the Chiefs.


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  Scott Seidenberg (30:38 - 30:53 ) points out that the Eagles have dominated turnover battles in the playoffs (10 takeaways, 0 giveaways), while the Chiefs are -1.

4. Super Bowl Betting Market Moves

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  Scott Seidenberg (16:43 - 17:52 ) reports a massive bet placed on the Eagles, potentially by legendary bettor Billy Walters.


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  Steve Fezzik (17:19 - 17:39 ) states that Circa Sports increased their betting limits to $300,000 on Super Bowl wagers.

Best Bets & Betting Strategies

5. Same Game Parlay Concepts

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  RJ Bell (21:13 - 22:08 ) proposes a high-value parlay based on historical game flow tendencies:


• Chiefs win
  


• Mahomes over completions
  


• Saquon Barkley over rushing attempts
  


• Game total under


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  Payout: +2100 (21-to-1 odds)


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  Steve Fezzik (21:52 - 22:08 ) notes that if the game total is low, the chance of a huge lead is lower, making the under correlated to a closer game.

6. Alternative Parlay Adjustments

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  RJ Bell (26:05 - 26:09 ) tweaks the parlay:


• Mahomes' completions lowered


• Barkley’s rush attempts reduced


• Final payout: +700


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  Scott Seidenberg (43:45 - 44:03 ) creates another parlay based on a Chiefs blowout:
  


• Chiefs -9.5


• Barkley 30+ rushing attempts
  


• Mahomes 40+ pass attempts
  


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  Payout: +4600 (46-to-1)

Prop Bets & Key Markets

7. Player Prop Bets

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  Jalen Hurts MVP (+350) – If the Eagles win in a close game, Hurts is the most likely MVP.


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  Devonta Smith to lead in receiving yards (+600) – If A.J. Brown is contained, Smith becomes the primary target.


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  JuJu Smith-Schuster receptions over 1.5 (-140) – Sharp money moving this line up suggests heavily bet over.


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  Travis Kelce under receptions & yards – Market overvaluing Kelce’s role, potential sharp fade.

8. Game Script & Live Betting Strategies

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  Fezzik (56:07 - 56:34 ) suggests betting Eagles live if they fall behind double digits, as they are built to rally.


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  Mackenzie Rivers (1:04:34 - 1:04:41 ) suggests betting under 6.5 punts, citing historical offensive efficiency.

Super Bowl Fun & Gimmick Bets

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  Gatorade Color Shift (58:18 - 58:52 ): The betting market moved yellow/green Gatorade from +300 to -295, indicating inside information.


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  Three Players to Attempt a Pass (+180): Kansas City & Philly have trick plays and gadget packages that could result in a non-QB passing attempt.

Final Betting Recommendations

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  Same Game Parlay (21-to-1 odds): Chiefs win, Mahomes over completions, Barkley over rushes, game total under.


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  Devonta Smith over receiving yards (+600 to lead all receivers).


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  Live bet Eagles if they fall behind 10+ points.

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