How Kamala Beats Trump (Final Ep.)
10Digest
The podcast delves into the 2020 US presidential election, focusing on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It begins by discussing the concept of "calcification" in the electorate, where voters are deeply divided and unlikely to change their minds. The episode features conversations with Lynn Vavrick, a UCLA political scientist, and David Plough, a senior Harris campaign advisor. Vavrick analyzes the impact of recent events, including Biden's withdrawal and Trump's legal troubles, on the race. She examines the movement in the polls, suggesting that voters who shifted away from Biden after the debate were likely to return to the Democratic candidate. Vavrick explores the potential impact of Kamala Harris's enthusiasm and the "freedom" message on undecided voters, contrasting this approach with Biden's focus on democracy. Vavrick also discusses Trump's consistent vote share despite recent events, suggesting that his base is solidified. She analyzes the potential impact of the assassination attempt on his support and examines the argument that opposition to MAGA is the most powerful force in politics. Vavrick explores the influence of elites and negative partisanship on voters and discusses the potential impact of Kamala Harris's positive message on the electorate. Plough, the senior Harris campaign advisor, discusses the campaign's strategy and the challenges of launching a campaign with a new candidate. He highlights the importance of introducing Harris to voters and contrasting her with Trump. Plough discusses the electoral map and the potential for Harris to win key battleground states, emphasizing the importance of maximizing turnout among key demographics and the challenges of competing with Trump's base. Plough outlines the key issues facing the campaign, including Trump's age, his attacks on democracy, and his policies on abortion. He discusses the need to deliver a positive message about Harris's vision for the future and the challenge of balancing messaging about Harris and Trump. Plough emphasizes the importance of a strong ground game and candidate visibility in the campaign, discussing the challenges of competing with Trump's messaging and the need to highlight Harris's positive agenda. The podcast concludes with a call to action, emphasizing the importance of voter engagement and persuasion. The episode highlights the stakes of the election and the potential for a positive future.
Outlines
The Political Landscape and the Harris-Trump Race
The podcast begins with a reflection on the political landscape, highlighting the close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The episode will feature conversations with Lynn Vavrick, a UCLA political scientist, and David Plough, a senior Harris campaign advisor.
Calcification and the State of the Race
Lynn Vavrick discusses the concept of "calcification" in the electorate, where voters are deeply divided and unlikely to change their minds. She analyzes the impact of recent events, including Biden's withdrawal and Trump's legal troubles, on the race.
Harris's Rise in the Polls and the Impact of a New Candidate
Vavrick examines the movement in the polls, suggesting that voters who shifted away from Biden after the debate were likely to return to the Democratic candidate. She discusses the significance of a new candidate in a calcified electorate.
The Power of Enthusiasm and the Freedom Message
Vavrick explores the potential impact of Kamala Harris's enthusiasm and the "freedom" message on undecided voters. She contrasts this approach with Biden's focus on democracy.
Trump's Base and the Potential Impact of Recent Events
Vavrick discusses Trump's consistent vote share despite recent events, suggesting that his base is solidified. She analyzes the potential impact of the assassination attempt on his support.
The Power of Opposition to MAGA
Vavrick examines the argument that opposition to MAGA is the most powerful force in politics. She discusses the challenge of uniting the anti-MAGA coalition and the potential for a more positive message.
The Role of Elites and Negative Partisanship
Vavrick explores the influence of elites and negative partisanship on voters. She discusses the potential impact of Kamala Harris's positive message on the electorate.
The Harris-Walls Campaign Strategy
David Plough, a senior Harris campaign advisor, discusses the campaign's strategy and the challenges of launching a campaign with a new candidate. He highlights the importance of introducing Harris to voters and contrasting her with Trump.
Keywords
Calcification
A term used to describe a deeply divided electorate where voters are unlikely to change their minds, making elections close and potentially volatile.
Negative Partisanship
A phenomenon where voters have strong negative feelings towards the opposing party, often driving their political choices.
Freedom Message
A political message that emphasizes individual liberty and limited government intervention, often used by conservative candidates.
Project 2025
A plan outlined by Donald Trump that includes policies on abortion, immigration, and other issues, often seen as extreme and controversial.
Ground Game
The on-the-ground efforts of a political campaign, including voter registration, canvassing, and get-out-the-vote efforts.
Enthusiasm Gap
A difference in the level of enthusiasm between supporters of opposing candidates, often reflected in voter turnout and fundraising.
Soft Trump Voter
A voter who supports Donald Trump but is not firmly committed to his candidacy, potentially open to persuasion by other candidates.
Undecided Voter
A voter who has not yet decided which candidate to support in an election, often targeted by campaigns for persuasion.
Q&A
What is "calcification" in the electorate, and how does it affect the current race?
Calcification refers to a deeply divided electorate where voters are unlikely to change their minds, making elections close and potentially volatile. This phenomenon makes it difficult for candidates to persuade voters and can lead to increased polarization and instability.
How does Kamala Harris's rise in the polls compare to Biden's performance in 2020?
Harris's rise in the polls is similar to Biden's in 2020, with voters who shifted away from Biden after the debate likely returning to the Democratic candidate. However, Harris's newness as a candidate adds a different dynamic to the race.
What is the significance of the "freedom" message in the current campaign?
The "freedom" message, often associated with conservative candidates, is being used by the Harris-Walls campaign to appeal to undecided voters. This approach contrasts with Biden's focus on democracy and aims to attract voters who are concerned about government overreach.
What are the key challenges facing the Harris-Walls campaign?
The campaign faces challenges in introducing Harris to voters, contrasting her with Trump, and maximizing turnout among key demographics. They also need to address Trump's solidified base and the potential for a lower turnout election.
What advice would you give to voters who are undecided about the election?
Voters should engage in conversations with friends, family, and colleagues about the election, sharing content that resonates with them and highlighting the dangers of a Trump presidency. They should also register to vote and volunteer for the campaign.
What is the potential impact of Trump's Project 2025 plan on the election?
Project 2025, which includes policies on abortion, immigration, and other issues, is seen as extreme and controversial. The campaign needs to inform voters about the potential impact of these policies on their lives and highlight the dangers of a Trump presidency.
What is the importance of voter engagement and persuasion in the current election?
Voter engagement and persuasion are crucial in a close election. By having conversations with undecided voters, sharing information, and highlighting the stakes of the election, individuals can make a difference in the outcome.
Show Notes
On the final episode of this season of The Wilderness, Jon is joined by UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck and senior Harris campaign advisor David Plouffe. Lynn and Jon discuss why, despite all of this election's wild changes, Lynn is still expecting a close outcome in November and then David Plouffe sits down with Jon to talk about what we can do to help Kamala beat Trump.
Take action with Vote Save America: Visit votesaveamerica.com/2024
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Has anyone, EVER, seen trump laugh?