Is a US-China Thucydides Trap Unavoidable? With David C. Kang from the ChinaTalk Podcast
Digest
This podcast features a conversation with Professor David Kong, who critiques Western-centric approaches to understanding East Asian international relations. He argues that traditional Western models, often focused on conflict and power transitions (like the Thucydides Trap), fail to account for the region's unique history and internal dynamics. Professor Kong highlights the surprising stability of East Asia for centuries, even under periods of Chinese hegemony, emphasizing internal factors within states as more significant drivers of change than external pressures. The discussion explores the impact of the Westphalian system on East Asia, particularly concerning Taiwan, and examines the complexities of tributary relationships, using Korea's relationship with the Mongol Empire as a case study. The podcast also analyzes China's internal vs. external affairs, contrasting its approach to Xinjiang and Hong Kong with its relations with other countries. It critiques the US approach to regional alliances, arguing that pressure tactics are ineffective and fail to account for the region's historical context. Finally, the podcast draws lessons from the Ukraine war, questioning the reliability of US commitments to its allies in East Asia and emphasizing the importance of understanding internal dynamics in shaping international relations. The interview concludes with book recommendations on East Asian history.
Outlines

Introduction: Reframing East Asian International Relations
The podcast introduces a conversation with Professor David Kong, contrasting Western perspectives on power transitions with East Asian realities. It sets the stage for a critique of Western-centric approaches and a focus on internal factors.

Challenging Western Paradigms and the Importance of East Asian History
Professor Kong critiques Western-centric approaches to studying East Asian international relations, advocating for a focus on East Asian history to develop more accurate theories of state interaction.

East Asian Geopolitical Stability and China's Hegemony: Internal Factors Over External Pressures
Professor Kong discusses the surprising geopolitical stability in East Asia for centuries despite China's dominant position, emphasizing internal factors over external pressures in dynastic transitions.

The Westphalian System and Internal Challenges in East Asia
The discussion explores the impact of the Westphalian system on East Asian relations, particularly concerning Taiwan, and emphasizes the importance of internal challenges in understanding the dynamics of great powers.

Alternative Perspectives and the Value of Re-examining Assumptions
The podcast acknowledges differing viewpoints on China policy and highlights the value of engaging with alternative perspectives and re-examining assumptions.

Misconceptions about East Asian International Relations and War
The discussion addresses common misconceptions about East Asian international relations and war, emphasizing the prevalence of internal factors in great power transitions.

The European Nature of Power Transitions: A Western Bias?
The conversation argues that the typical Western understanding of power transitions, characterized by land grabs and warfare, is largely a European phenomenon, not universally applicable.

Key Lessons and the Importance of Internal Dynamics in East Asia
The podcast summarizes key lessons, emphasizing the significance of internal dynamics over external factors in shaping East Asian international relations.

China's Internal vs. External Affairs and Foreign Policy
The discussion differentiates between China's internal and external affairs, using Xinjiang and Hong Kong as examples, and debates the applicability of China's actions in one context to another.

Taiwan's Ambiguous Status and the Limits of Power Transition Models
The podcast discusses the complex and unclear status of Taiwan, highlighting differing perspectives and the limitations of applying simple power transition models. This includes the discussion of Korea's historical tributary relationship with the Mongol Empire as a relevant case study.

Lessons from the Ukraine War and US Policy in East Asia
The podcast explores lessons from the Ukraine war, focusing on the US's cautious approach to military intervention and questioning the reliability of US commitments to its allies in East Asia. This includes a discussion of US influence and the surprisingly low military spending in East Asia. The podcast concludes with reflections on research and book recommendations.
Keywords
East Asian International Relations
The study of interactions between states in East Asia, considering historical, cultural, and political factors unique to the region.
Unipolar System
A geopolitical system dominated by a single major power.
Westphalian System
The modern state system emphasizing sovereignty and non-interference.
Thucydides Trap
A theory suggesting war is inevitable when a rising power challenges a dominant power.
Tribute System
A system of unequal relationships in East Asia.
Trans-dynastic
Referring to patterns persisting across different Chinese dynasties.
Common Conjecture
Shared understanding and cultural commonalities among East Asian states.
Tributary Relationship
A political relationship where a smaller state acknowledges the supremacy of a larger state.
East Asian Geopolitics
The complex interplay of political, economic, and military factors in East Asia.
China's Internal vs. External Affairs
A framework for understanding China's foreign policy.
Q&A
How does Professor Kong's analysis of East Asian history challenge traditional Western theories of international relations?
Kong argues that Western theories, often based on the European experience, are inapplicable to East Asia, highlighting East Asia's long periods of stability.
What are the implications of Professor Kong's analysis for understanding contemporary US-China relations, particularly regarding Taiwan?
Kong's analysis suggests that focusing solely on a power transition dynamic may be misleading. Internal factors within China and the unique historical context of East Asia should be given greater consideration.
What are the key differences between China's approach to internal and external affairs, and how does this impact its relations with other countries?
China views issues like Xinjiang and Hong Kong as internal matters, justifying actions that might be considered unacceptable in its relations with other countries.
How does the historical example of Korea's relationship with the Mongol Empire inform our understanding of Taiwan's current situation?
Korea's experience demonstrates that a tributary relationship doesn't necessarily equate to loss of sovereignty, suggesting a potential path for Taiwan.
Why is the US approach to encouraging regional alliances against China proving ineffective?
The US approach often relies on pressure and hectoring, failing to account for the complex historical relationships and nuanced perspectives of East Asian nations.
What are the key lessons from the Ukraine war that are relevant to the situation in East Asia?
The Ukraine war highlights the US's caution regarding military intervention against nuclear powers, raising questions about the reliability of US commitments to its allies in East Asia.
Show Notes
In this crossover episode from the China Talk podcast, Nathan Labenz shares a thought-provoking conversation between Jordan Schneider, Ilari Michaela, and Professor David C. Kang that challenges conventional Western perspectives on East Asian international relations. Professor Kang argues that studying East Asian history on its own terms reveals a remarkably stable geopolitical system spanning nearly a millennium, where China maintained regional dominance without conquest through compatible cultures and mutual understanding. This alternative framework offers valuable insights that question the seemingly inevitable US-China competition narrative dominating AI discourse, suggesting that internal challenges may be more significant than external threats for both China and the United States.
SPONSORS:
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers next-generation cloud solutions that cut costs and boost performance. With OCI, you can run AI projects and applications faster and more securely for less. New U.S. customers can save 50% on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking by switching to OCI before May 31, 2024. See if you qualify at https://oracle.com/cognitive
Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive
PRODUCED BY:
CHAPTERS:
(00:00 ) About the Episode
(03:30 ) Introduction to East Asian Relations
(04:41 ) Internal vs External Challenges
(07:05 ) Song Dynasty's Fall
(13:35 ) Western vs Eastern Frontiers
(19:06 ) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 1)
(20:30 ) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | Shopify
(23:45 ) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 2)
(25:57 ) Vietnam-China Relations
(30:08 ) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 1)
(32:19 ) Sponsors: NetSuite
(33:52 ) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 2)
(35:17 ) The Imjin War
(43:36 ) Thucydides Trap Question
(49:19 ) Power Transition Theory Debate
(53:49 ) Expansion and Frontiers
(01:02:00 ) Modern Implications
(01:06:00 ) PRC and Imperial Legacy
(01:13:16 ) Taiwan and Modern Challenges
(01:25:42 ) US Role in East Asia
(01:29:35 ) Concluding Thoughts
(01:37:17 ) Outro


![E32: [Bonus Episode - The AI Breakdown] Can OpenAI's New GPT Training Model Solve Math and AI Alignment At the Same Time? E32: [Bonus Episode - The AI Breakdown] Can OpenAI's New GPT Training Model Solve Math and AI Alignment At the Same Time?](https://megaphone.imgix.net/podcasts/680351f6-0179-11ee-a281-5bef084f2628/image/e57b08.png?ixlib=rails-4.3.1&max-w=3000&max-h=3000&fit=crop&auto=format,compress)





















