Kamala Harris's Path to 270
19Digest
This podcast delves into the strategies and challenges facing the Harris campaign in the upcoming presidential election. The hosts discuss Trump's new fall campaign strategy, which involves smaller, non-rally events aimed at delivering a more focused message. They also analyze the Harris campaign's focus on seven key battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. The hosts interview Dan Cannon, the Harris campaign's battleground states director, who emphasizes the importance of on-the-ground organizing and the campaign's significant advantage in terms of infrastructure compared to Trump's team. The podcast also explores the challenges Harris might face in the upcoming presidential debate, including the need to balance offense and defense against Trump's attacks and the importance of providing voters with information about her candidacy. The hosts discuss the significance of a strong ground game in elections, highlighting its role in voter registration, turnout, and ballot curing. They also address the challenge of reaching voters who are not actively engaged in politics and discuss the campaign's approach to connecting with these voters through online spaces, volunteer programs, and real-life conversations. The podcast concludes with a discussion of the campaign's concerns about the Trump campaign's potential tactics, highlighting their lack of ethical constraints and the need for a strong legal defense. They also discuss the campaign's preparations for potential election interference and legal challenges.
Outlines
Campaign Strategies and Challenges
This episode explores the strategies and challenges facing the Harris campaign in the upcoming presidential election, including their focus on key battleground states, their approach to reaching voters, and their concerns about potential election interference.
Trump's Debate Shenanigans and Mic Controversy
The hosts discuss Trump's reluctance to participate in the upcoming presidential debate, citing his complaints about ABC News and the debate format. They delve into the disagreement between the campaigns regarding mic muting during the debate, with Trump advocating for muted mics while Harris's team prefers them on.
Trump's New Fall Strategy and Harris's Battleground Focus
The hosts analyze Trump's new fall campaign strategy, which involves smaller, non-rally events aimed at delivering a more focused message. They discuss Trump's recent speech at a National Guard Association conference in Detroit, where he attempted to stay on message but ultimately veered off into his usual rhetoric. They also discuss the Harris campaign's focus on seven key battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
RFK Jr.'s Endorsement and Bizarre Family Stories
The hosts discuss RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump, highlighting the unusual nature of the alliance and the potential impact on the election. They also delve into a bizarre story about RFK Jr.'s daughter, Kick Kennedy, who recounted her father's unusual habit of transporting a dead whale head on their minivan.
Analyzing the Impact of RFK Jr.'s Endorsement
The hosts discuss the potential impact of RFK Jr.'s endorsement on the election, noting the overlap between their voter bases and the mixed messages conveyed by Kennedy. They also examine polling data that suggests Kennedy's endorsement may not significantly alter the race.
Harris and Walls' Post-Convention Travel and Georgia Focus
The hosts discuss Harris and Walls' post-convention travel plans, highlighting their decision to target Georgia for their first joint bus tour. They analyze the significance of this choice, suggesting that the Harris campaign believes they have a viable path to victory in the state.
Interview with Dan Cannon, Harris Campaign's Battleground States Director
The hosts interview Dan Cannon, the Harris campaign's battleground states director, discussing the campaign's strategy for the fall and their focus on seven key states. Cannon emphasizes the importance of on-the-ground organizing and the campaign's significant advantage in terms of infrastructure compared to Trump's team.
Debate Prep and Potential Pitfalls
The hosts discuss the upcoming presidential debate, highlighting the high stakes and the potential for a significant impact on the race. They analyze the challenges Harris might face, including the need to balance offense and defense against Trump's attacks and the importance of providing voters with information about her candidacy.
The Importance of Ground Game and Reaching Unengaged Voters
This chapter discusses the significance of a strong ground game in elections, highlighting its role in voter registration, turnout, and ballot curing. It emphasizes the importance of engaging volunteers and creating a sense of presence and enthusiasm among supporters. The speakers address the challenge of reaching voters who are not actively engaged in politics and do not consume news from traditional sources. They discuss the campaign's approach to connecting with these voters through online spaces, volunteer programs, and real-life conversations.
Challenges and Opportunities with Kamala Harris as Nominee and Concerns about Trump Campaign Tactics
The speakers discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. They acknowledge the need to run a different kind of campaign, emphasizing the importance of meeting the demand of new supporters, educating them about Harris, and empowering them to spread the message. The speakers express concerns about the Trump campaign's potential tactics, highlighting their lack of ethical constraints and the need for a strong legal defense. They discuss the campaign's preparations for potential election interference and legal challenges.
Keywords
Battleground States
States that are considered to be closely contested in an election, where the outcome can significantly impact the overall result. These states often receive significant attention and resources from campaigns.
Ground Game
The organized effort of a political campaign to mobilize voters, particularly through door-to-door canvassing, phone banking, and community outreach. It plays a crucial role in voter registration, turnout, and get-out-the-vote efforts.
Data Operation
The process of collecting, analyzing, and using data to inform campaign strategies and decision-making. It involves voter registration records, polling data, and other relevant information to understand voter preferences and target specific groups.
Election Interference
Actions taken by individuals or groups to disrupt or manipulate the electoral process, potentially affecting the outcome of an election. This can include hacking, disinformation campaigns, and voter suppression tactics.
Winner-Take-All System
An electoral system where the candidate who receives the most votes in a state or district wins all of the electoral votes or seats, regardless of the margin of victory. This can create incentives for candidates to focus on winning a few key states or districts.
Anti-Maga Coalition
A group of individuals and organizations that oppose the policies and rhetoric of former President Donald Trump and his \"Make America Great Again\" movement. This coalition often includes Democrats, independents, and Republicans who are critical of Trump's policies and style of leadership.
Rural America
Areas of the United States that are characterized by low population density, agriculture, and often conservative political views. These areas can be challenging for campaigns to reach and mobilize voters.
Suburban Voters
Residents of areas located outside of major cities, often characterized by a mix of residential and commercial development. These voters can be influential in elections, as they often represent a swing demographic.
Reproductive Rights
The legal and social rights related to women's reproductive health, including access to contraception, abortion, and prenatal care. These issues are often highly contested in political discourse and can be a key factor in voter decisions.
Q&A
What is Trump's new fall campaign strategy, and how does it differ from his previous approach?
Trump is shifting to smaller, non-rally events with a focus on delivering a more disciplined message. This contrasts with his previous reliance on large rallies and often off-script rhetoric.
What are the key battleground states that the Harris campaign is focusing on, and why?
The Harris campaign is targeting seven key states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. These states have consistently had close races in recent elections, and the campaign believes they have a viable path to victory in each.
What are some of the potential pitfalls that Harris might face in the upcoming presidential debate?
Harris will need to balance offense and defense against Trump's attacks, provide voters with information about her candidacy, and avoid being put on the defensive for the entire debate.
What are the key components of a successful ground game in an election?
A successful ground game involves voter registration, turnout efforts, and ballot curing. It requires engaging volunteers, building a strong organizational structure, and creating a sense of presence and enthusiasm among supporters.
How might RFK Jr.'s potential withdrawal from the race impact the election?
RFK Jr.'s withdrawal could lead to a shift in voter support, particularly among those who have supported him but are not aligned with Donald Trump. The campaign might need to adapt its messaging and outreach efforts to appeal to these voters.
What are the campaign's key target demographics, and how are they tailoring their message to these groups?
The campaign is targeting suburban voters, Republican women, independent men, union households, and rural voters. They are tailoring their message to address the specific concerns and priorities of each group, emphasizing issues such as reproductive rights, economic security, and the need for responsible governance.
How is the campaign addressing the challenge of reaching voters who are not actively engaged in politics?
The campaign is using a blended organizing program that includes online spaces, volunteer programs, and real-life conversations. They are engaging with voters on platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook, as well as through traditional methods like phone banking and door-to-door canvassing.
What are the campaign's concerns about the Trump campaign's potential tactics?
The campaign is concerned about the Trump campaign's lack of ethical constraints and their potential for election interference. They are preparing for potential legal challenges and have built a strong legal team to address any irregularities or attempts to disrupt the election.
How is the campaign adapting to the challenges and opportunities presented by Kamala Harris becoming the nominee?
The campaign is running a different kind of campaign, focusing on meeting the demand of new supporters, educating them about Harris, and empowering them to spread the message. They are also working to build a strong infrastructure to support the increased level of engagement.
What are the campaign's strategies for addressing the concerns about data accuracy in predicting election outcomes?
The campaign is investing in a robust data operation, using a conservative approach to evaluating data and focusing on expanding the electorate. They are confident in their ability to accurately assess voter preferences and target specific groups.
Show Notes
Trump threatens to bail on the September debate, his campaign signals yet another attempt to keep their candidate on message, and his newest big endorser now comes with even more dead-animal baggage. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz prepare to hit the road on a Georgia bus tour and sit for a high-stakes interview. Jon and Tommy break down the state of the race as we head into the final two months, and Harris-Walz battleground state director Dan Kanninen stops by to talk about Harris's pathways to 270 electoral votes—and all the work they're doing on the ground to make sure she gets there.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.
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