Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?
Digest
This podcast delves into the emotional experience of watching the Oscars, acknowledging a complex love-hate relationship with the awards. It highlights the surprising quality of this year's Oscar nominees, noting that despite industry challenges, compelling films were produced and found audiences. The discussion spotlights standout performances, particularly Jesse Buckley's portrayal of Agnes in "Hamnet" and Renata Reinsve's subtle yet powerful role in "Sentimental Value" for Best Actress. For Best Actor, contenders like Timothy Chalamet in "Marty Supreme," Michael B. Jordan in "Sinners," and Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon" are examined. The conversation also covers Best Picture nominees, focusing on the risky yet successful studio films "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another," and an underrated gem, the Brazilian film "The Secret Agent." Finally, it reflects on the success of well-crafted, relevant films and expresses hope for Hollywood to align with audience preferences in the future.
Outlines

Oscars and Cinema's Resilience
Wesley Morris introduces his podcast "Canon Ball" and discusses the emotional rollercoaster of watching the Oscars, highlighting a love-hate relationship with the awards. Michael Barbaro and Manola Dargis discuss the surprising quality of this year's Oscar nominees, noting that despite industry challenges, great films were made and audiences found them.

Best Actress Contenders: Agnes and Nora
The discussion focuses on Jesse Buckley's performance as Agnes in "Hamnet," a role seen as a classic portrayal of the woman behind a famous man, and Renata Reinsve's subtle yet powerful performance as Nora in "Sentimental Value," highlighting her emotional transparency and the complexity of her character.

Best Actor and Picture Nominees
The conversation delves into the strong contenders for Best Actor, including Timothy Chalamet in "Marty Supreme," Michael B. Jordan in "Sinners," and Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon." The discussion shifts to Best Picture nominees, focusing on "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another," two risky studio films that resonated with critics and audiences.

Underrated Gem and Hollywood's Future
Manola Dargis recommends "The Secret Agent," a Brazilian film, as an under-the-radar gem that offers unpredictable twists and a powerful message about living under oppression. The conversation concludes with reflections on the success of well-made, relevant films and a hope that Hollywood executives will align with audience preferences.
Keywords
Oscars
The Academy Awards, an annual ceremony honoring cinematic achievements. The podcast discusses the nominees, potential winners, and the emotional experience of watching the event.
Canon Ball
A podcast hosted by Wesley Morris, a critic for The New York Times, focusing on songs, TV shows, and movies that leave a lasting impact.
Best Actress Nominees
Discussion of standout performances in the Best Actress category, including Jesse Buckley in "Hamnet" and Renata Reinsve in "Sentimental Value."
Best Actor Nominees
Examination of leading contenders for the Best Actor award, such as Timothy Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, and Ethan Hawke.
Best Picture Nominees
Focus on significant Best Picture contenders like "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another," highlighting their critical and audience reception.
The Secret Agent
An under-the-radar Brazilian film praised for its unpredictability, political commentary, and message of resilience under oppression.
Hollywood Future
Reflections on the success of well-made, relevant films and speculation about future industry trends and audience preferences.
Q&A
What is the general sentiment towards the Oscars among film critics?
Film critics often have a "love-hate" relationship with the Oscars. While they may watch them consistently and cheer for their favorites, they also spend time criticizing the choices, suggesting the awards are only good when they align with their own preferences.
Why is Jesse Buckley considered a frontrunner for Best Actress?
Jesse Buckley's performance as Agnes in "Hamnet" is seen as a classic role, portraying the woman behind William Shakespeare. Her performance navigates a wide range of emotions, from love and marital drama to tragedy, culminating in a harrowing birth scene and profound grief, which the Academy often rewards.
How does Renata Reinsve's performance in "Sentimental Value" differ from Jesse Buckley's?
Renata Reinsve's performance is described as more subtle and complicated, mirroring her character's complexity. While Buckley's is a "thundering storm," Reinsve's is a "gentle mist," characterized by emotional transparency and a quiet tour de force that allows the audience to interpret the character's feelings.
What makes Timothy Chalamet's performance in "Marty Supreme" stand out?
Chalamet plays a complex and ruthless character pursuing the American dream through table tennis. Despite the character's unlikeable traits, Chalamet brings warmth, relatability, and charm, making the aggressive performance engaging and highlighting the challenges of portraying abrasive heroes in American cinema.
What is the central theme of "Sinners," and how does Michael B. Jordan's performance contribute?
"Sinners" is a horror film about gangsters dealing with an ancient vampire embodying white exploitation of Black culture. Jordan's performance, playing distinct identical twins, is crucial. He inhabits each character with specific personalities, showcasing a renewed courtship and profound connection in one twin's storyline.
What is notable about Ethan Hawke's portrayal of Lorenz Hart in "Blue Moon"?
Ethan Hawke's performance is lauded for its lack of vanity, portraying Lorenz Hart as a sad, alcoholic, and insecure lyricist. Hawke embodies the character's vulnerability, pride, and desperation, showing the internal conflict of an artist recognizing his own decline and obsolescence.
Why are "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" considered strong Best Picture contenders?
Both films represent big studio risks that paid off, resonating with critics and audiences. "One Battle After Another" is praised for its urgency and blend of seriousness and dark comedy, while "Sinners" is lauded for its rich historical commentary and cinematic genius, particularly in its depiction of cultural history.
What message does "The Secret Agent" convey?
"The Secret Agent," a Brazilian film, explores the experience of living under political oppression. It highlights the importance of community and solidarity for survival, blending outrageous comedy with a moving narrative about resilience and finding like-minded individuals.
What is the overall outlook for Hollywood based on this year's Oscar-nominated films?
The success of films like "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" suggests that audiences desire well-made movies that comment on the world. There's a hope that executives will recognize this and move away from reality-detached blockbusters, aligning more closely with audience preferences.
Show Notes
Today on “The Sunday Daily,” The Times’s chief movie critic, Manohla Dargis, talks with the “Daily” host Michael Barbaro about this year’s batch of Oscar nominees, which — according to her — are uncommonly good.
They discuss the performances that Dargis believes deserve to win, the dark horses that might pull off upsets, and the ambitious films that give her hope for Hollywood’s future.
On Today’s Episode:
Manohla Dargis, Chief Film Critic for The New York Times.
Background Reading:
Delroy Lindo on ‘Sinners,’ Speaking Up and the Power of Affirmation
Photo: A24; Warner Bros. Pictures; Sabrina Lantos/Sony Pictures Classics
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