DiscoverRates & Barrels: A show about BaseballA Lifetime Ban, May Hitting Risers & Fallers, and The Shape of a Season
A Lifetime Ban, May Hitting Risers & Fallers, and The Shape of a Season

A Lifetime Ban, May Hitting Risers & Fallers, and The Shape of a Season

Update: 2024-06-04
Share

Digest

This episode of Rates and Barrels begins with a discussion about the recent lifetime ban of former MLB player Tucupita Marcano for betting on baseball games. The hosts discuss the details of the report, including the number of bets placed and the amount of money involved. They also discuss the different punishments given to other players involved in the investigation, and the implications of this news for the integrity of the game. The episode then shifts to a discussion about the biggest shifts in hitter performance from April to May. The hosts analyze players who have exceeded or underperformed their projections, using various metrics such as WRC+, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. They discuss the factors that may be contributing to these shifts, such as age, strikeout rate, and playing time. The hosts also discuss the importance of understanding the shape of a season and how players can fluctuate in performance over time. They provide examples of players who have had both hot and cold streaks, and discuss the challenges of predicting future performance based on early season data. The episode concludes with a discussion about the importance of managing expectations and making informed decisions based on both results and process numbers. The hosts remind listeners to check the show description for a link to the episode's content.

Outlines

00:00:00
MLB Betting Scandal

This Chapter discusses the recent lifetime ban of former MLB player Tucupita Marcano for betting on baseball games. The hosts discuss the details of the report, including the number of bets placed and the amount of money involved. They also discuss the different punishments given to other players involved in the investigation, and the implications of this news for the integrity of the game.

00:16:42
Biggest Shifts in Hitter Performance

This Chapter dives into the biggest shifts in hitter performance from April to May. The hosts analyze players who have exceeded or underperformed their projections, using various metrics such as WRC+, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. They discuss the factors that may be contributing to these shifts, such as age, strikeout rate, and playing time.

00:30:21
Rookie Performance

This Chapter focuses on the performance of rookie hitters, specifically Jackson Tureo and Colt Keith. The hosts discuss the challenges of balancing player development with team performance, and the importance of considering both results and process numbers.

00:33:20
Playing Time and Confidence

This Chapter continues the discussion about rookie performance, specifically Jackson Tureo. The hosts discuss the challenges of managing playing time for young players, and the importance of finding the right balance between building confidence and not hurting the team.

00:41:42
Riser's List

This Chapter analyzes the list of players who have seen significant increases in their barrel rate from April to May. The hosts discuss the potential for breakout players, and highlight players who are widely available in fantasy leagues.

00:52:31
Overperformers

This Chapter analyzes the list of players who have significantly exceeded their projected WRC+ for the season. The hosts discuss the factors that may be contributing to these overperformances, and highlight players who are fantasy relevant.

01:01:27
Underperformers

This Chapter analyzes the list of players who have significantly underperformed their projected WRC+ for the season. The hosts discuss the factors that may be contributing to these underperformances, and highlight players who are fantasy relevant.

01:08:31
Replacement Level

This Chapter discusses the concept of replacement level and how it affects player value in fantasy leagues. The hosts discuss the importance of considering the quality of the alternative when evaluating players who are struggling.

01:11:55
Pull Percentage

This Chapter discusses the importance of pull percentage as a metric for evaluating hitter performance. The hosts discuss how pull percentage can be used to approximate contact point, and how changes in pull percentage can indicate changes in a hitter's approach.

01:18:32
Episode Conclusion

This Chapter concludes the episode with a reminder to check the show description for a link to the episode's content.

Keywords

Tucupita Marcano
Tucupita Marcano is a former MLB player who was recently banned for life from baseball for betting on games. He played for the Pittsburgh Pirates and was known for his speed and defensive abilities. He was a promising prospect but his career was cut short due to this violation of MLB rules.

MLB Betting Scandal
The MLB Betting Scandal refers to the recent investigation and subsequent punishments of several MLB players for betting on games. This scandal has raised concerns about the integrity of the game and the potential for insider information to be used for betting purposes. The league has taken a strong stance against betting on games, and has implemented stricter rules and penalties to deter future violations.

WRC+
WRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is a baseball statistic that measures a hitter's offensive production relative to league average. It takes into account factors such as park effects and league context, and is considered a more comprehensive measure of offensive value than traditional statistics such as batting average or home runs.

Barrel Rate
Barrel Rate is a baseball statistic that measures the percentage of a hitter's batted balls that are considered to be "barrels." A barrel is a batted ball that has an exit velocity of at least 95 mph and a launch angle between 26 and 30 degrees. Barrel rate is considered a good indicator of a hitter's ability to make hard contact and hit for power.

Hard Hit Rate
Hard Hit Rate is a baseball statistic that measures the percentage of a hitter's batted balls that have an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. Hard hit rate is considered a good indicator of a hitter's ability to make hard contact, and is often used in conjunction with other metrics such as launch angle and barrel rate to evaluate a hitter's overall offensive performance.

Replacement Level
Replacement Level is a concept in baseball that refers to the level of performance that a team could expect from a player who is readily available in the minor leagues or on the waiver wire. Replacement level players are typically below average hitters and pitchers, and their performance is often used as a benchmark for evaluating the value of other players.

Pull Percentage
Pull Percentage is a baseball statistic that measures the percentage of a hitter's batted balls that are hit to the opposite field (left field for right-handed hitters, right field for left-handed hitters). Pull percentage is often used as an indicator of a hitter's contact point and swing path, and can be used to identify hitters who are struggling to make consistent contact.

Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Baseball is a popular online game in which players draft and manage virtual teams of real-life MLB players. Fantasy baseball players compete against each other based on their players' performance in real-life games. Fantasy baseball is a popular way for fans to engage with the sport and test their knowledge of the game.

Keeper League
A Keeper League is a type of fantasy baseball league in which players can keep some of their players from year to year. This allows players to build a core of talented players over time, and can create a more strategic and long-term approach to fantasy baseball.

Dynasty League
A Dynasty League is a type of fantasy baseball league that is designed to be played over multiple years. Dynasty leagues typically involve a draft of prospects and young players, and players can keep their players for multiple seasons. Dynasty leagues are a popular way for fantasy baseball players to experience the long-term development of players and build a team for the future.

Q&A

  • What are the implications of the MLB betting scandal for the integrity of the game?

    The MLB betting scandal raises concerns about the integrity of the game and the potential for insider information to be used for betting purposes. The league has taken a strong stance against betting on games, and has implemented stricter rules and penalties to deter future violations.

  • What are some of the factors that can contribute to shifts in hitter performance from month to month?

    Factors that can contribute to shifts in hitter performance include age, strikeout rate, playing time, and adjustments made by pitchers. Younger players, free-swinging players, and players who are making adjustments to big league pitching are more likely to experience fluctuations in performance.

  • How can understanding the shape of a season help fantasy baseball players make better decisions?

    Understanding the shape of a season can help fantasy baseball players manage expectations and make informed decisions about players who are struggling or exceeding expectations. It's important to remember that even great players can have bad months, and that early season performance may not be indicative of future performance.

  • What are some of the key metrics to consider when evaluating hitter performance in fantasy baseball?

    Key metrics to consider when evaluating hitter performance include WRC+, barrel rate, hard hit rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and playing time. These metrics can provide a more comprehensive picture of a hitter's offensive performance than traditional statistics such as batting average or home runs.

  • What are some of the challenges of managing playing time for young players in MLB?

    The challenges of managing playing time for young players include balancing player development with team performance, finding the right balance between building confidence and not hurting the team, and considering both results and process numbers. Teams must make difficult decisions about when to give young players opportunities to play, and how to manage their expectations.

  • What are some of the key factors to consider when evaluating players who are exceeding or underperforming their projections?

    Key factors to consider when evaluating players who are exceeding or underperforming their projections include their age, strikeout rate, playing time, and the quality of their competition. It's important to consider whether a player's performance is sustainable, and whether they are likely to regress to their projected level of performance.

  • How can pull percentage be used to evaluate hitter performance?

    Pull percentage can be used to approximate contact point, and changes in pull percentage can indicate changes in a hitter's approach. Hitters who are pulling the ball more are often making better contact and hitting for more power. However, it's important to consider the context of a hitter's pull percentage, and to understand whether it is a positive or negative development.

  • What are some of the key differences between keeper leagues and dynasty leagues in fantasy baseball?

    Keeper leagues allow players to keep some of their players from year to year, while dynasty leagues are designed to be played over multiple years. Dynasty leagues typically involve a draft of prospects and young players, and players can keep their players for multiple seasons. Dynasty leagues are a more long-term and strategic approach to fantasy baseball.

  • What are some of the key considerations for fantasy baseball players when making trades?

    Key considerations for fantasy baseball players when making trades include the value of the players involved, the needs of their team, and the potential for future performance. It's important to make trades that improve their team's chances of winning, and to avoid making trades that are based on short-term performance or emotional decisions.

  • What are some of the key takeaways from the discussion about hitter performance in this episode?

    Key takeaways from the discussion about hitter performance include the importance of understanding the shape of a season, the challenges of predicting future performance based on early season data, and the importance of considering both results and process numbers when evaluating players. It's also important to remember that even great players can have bad months, and that early season performance may not be indicative of future performance.

Show Notes

Eno and DVR discuss a round of suspensions from MLB for gambling -- including a lifetime ban for Tucupita Marcano, before looking at some of the biggest risers and fallers among hitters from April to May. 


Rundown

1:00 Tucupita Marcano: Lifetime Ban for Betting on Baseball

16:47 Biggest Shifts in Hitter Performance: April v. May

22:01 Risers From April to May

30:54 Rookie Bats in Month 2

38:39 Colton Cowser to Fallers From April to May

43:04 May Barrel Rate Risers

49:04 May Hard-Hit Rate Risers

52:04 Full-Season Projections v. Performance to Date

1:07:45 Is a Randy Arozarena Rebound On Tap?


Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris

Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper

e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com


Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe


Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes!


Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Comments 
In Channel
loading

Table of contents

00:00
00:00
x

0.5x

0.8x

1.0x

1.25x

1.5x

2.0x

3.0x

Sleep Timer

Off

End of Episode

5 Minutes

10 Minutes

15 Minutes

30 Minutes

45 Minutes

60 Minutes

120 Minutes

A Lifetime Ban, May Hitting Risers & Fallers, and The Shape of a Season

A Lifetime Ban, May Hitting Risers & Fallers, and The Shape of a Season

The Athletic