Listeners, welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker. The big story today is the ongoing impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which continues to send shockwaves through India’s export sector and broader economy. President Donald Trump, in his effort to address what he describes as unfair trading relationships and to put pressure on India for its ongoing purchases of Russian oil, has imposed a 50 percent tariff on most Indian exports to the United States as of August this year, with warnings of even steeper rates in case negotiations stall, according to reporting by Economic Times and AgFunderNews.

These new tariffs are particularly punitive for industries like textiles, agriculture, and technology. In Tiruppur, India’s knitwear hub, manufacturers are seeing a sharp drop in orders as U.S. buyers demand steep discounts to offset the duties. Businesses report slimmer margins and warn that jobs are at stake if the tariffs stay in place. Sivasubramaniam, a leading exporter, described his business as “upside down,” with inventory piling up and workers facing reduced shifts. On the agricultural front, India exported $5.7 billion in produce to the U.S. last year, but officials say half of those shipments are now unprofitable. Farmers are scrambling to find alternative buyers in Russia and China, even as U.S.-India trade talks remain deadlocked.

The World Bank, in its latest assessment from October 8, raised India’s GDP forecast for the year to 6.5 percent, noting strong domestic demand and new tax reforms. However, the Bank issued a cautionary note: these gains could be undermined by U.S. tariffs, which now impact 75 percent of India’s exports to America. S&P and the Reserve Bank of India remain optimistic, projecting growth figures near 6.8 percent, particularly as a possible December rate cut could spur investment, but U.S. trade policy is now the leading external risk to the outlook.

President Trump’s stance is also drawing criticism from economists. Harvard’s Gita Gopinath posted her “negative verdict” on social media, stating the tariffs have raised U.S. government revenue but failed to improve the U.S. trade balance or manufacturing sector, and have even nudged up inflation for some household goods. Trump’s advisers have clarified that approximately half the 50 percent tariff is meant as a reciprocal measure, with the additional 25 percent directly tied to India’s increased oil purchases from Russia—trade the U.S. says is propping up Moscow’s war machine.

In the bigger picture, U.S. officials continue to press India to diversify its energy sources. Jamieson Greer, a Trump trade adviser, publicly acknowledged that New Delhi is making moves away from Russian oil under American pressure, but maintained that the U.S. won’t dictate India’s choices. Instead, the focus is on intense negotiations, with a possibility of further tariffs—especially on strategic sectors like pharmaceuticals—if India and the U.S. cannot resolve their differences.

On a practical note for exporters and industry watchers, S&P Global reports the average U.S. trade-weighted effective tariff rate rose to 19.3 percent as of October 6, up sharply from 16.9 percent just two weeks prior, illustrating the effect of new tariffs not only on India but other U.S. trade partners as well.

Listeners, keep your eyes on the ongoing U.S.-India negotiations, as any breakthroughs could quickly change the tariff landscape. The global focus remains on whether India’s resilient domestic market can shield it from the worst impacts of these U.S. policies—and whether American and Indian leaders can find common ground before more drastic steps are taken.

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