WM Phoenix Open picks!
Update: 2025-02-05
Description
Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the WM Phoenix Open.
-Top 6 names on odds board -1 matchup -1 t20 -2 outrights -Sleeper, FRP, 2 lineups, scoring
-Best bet For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59
Recap of Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0:39 - 32:26 )
Rory McIlroy’s Dominance
McIlroy secured his 27th PGA Tour win with a commanding performance.- He finished 5-under on the final nine holes, with birdies at 10, 12, and 15, and a momentum-shifting eagle on the 14th.
Led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and was top 10 in putting.
Averaged 336 yards per drive (leading the field), scaling back to irons strategically in the final round.- Will Doctor highlights McIlroy’s shift to a conservative approach in his final round, citing Jamie Kennedy (Golf Digest) for insightful questions on McIlroy's tactics.
Scottie Scheffler’s Performance
- Finished T-9 despite high expectations.
- Was above average in all statistical categories, with a final-round 67.
Second round (70) cost him ground, but overall solid performance.
Tom Kim’s Near Miss
Finished T-7, cashing a top-10 ticket.- Struggled on par-5s, a key reason for missing a podium finish.
- Big mistake: bogey on the par-5 6th, where he hit into the Pacific Ocean.
His slow play is a concern heading into Phoenix Open, especially with rowdy fans at TPC Scottsdale.
WM Phoenix Open – Picks & Predictions
Top Contenders & Betting Analysis
Scottie Scheffler (+305)
Back-to-back WM Phoenix Open winner (2022, 2023).
T-3 last year.- Improved putting over recent months.
Not betting outright but looking for a live number.
Driving accuracy concerns.- Has played well in Phoenix but struggles to win due to tee-shot inconsistencies.
Passing on JT outright.
2-time Phoenix Open winner (2016, 2017).
Struggled with driving accuracy in recent events.
Third consecutive tournament, raising fatigue concerns.
Has 2 top-10 finishes at Phoenix Open.- However, below-average iron play in 2 of last 3 starts.
- Has not truly contended at this event.
Back-to-back top-10s at WM Phoenix Open.
Struggling with approach play in recent months.
Passing on Burns this week.
Slow play may be an issue in a loud environment.
T-17 last year, finished 11 shots back.- Not enough value at 33:1, so passing on Kim.
Best Bets & Sleeper Picks
Matchup Bets
- Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106)
Hoey: Great total driver & putter on overseeded greens.
Lawrence: Poor driving accuracy & distance.- Hoey should outperform Lawrence in these conditions.
Top Picks
Kurt Kitayama- Win: 66:1
- Top-20: +240
Strengths: Elite driver, strong recent putting.
Recent results at WM Phoenix Open:
T-23 in 2023.
T-8 in 2022.
Why bet? Improved driving accuracy recently, well-rested after missing Farmers.
- Win: 115:1
- Top-20: +350
Past Winner (2018).
Ball-striking back to form with coach Randy Smith.- Putting showed improvement at Pebble Beach.
Low risk, high reward pick.
Daily Fantasy Picks (DraftKings & PGA Tour Lineup)
DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget)
- Kurt Kitayama ($8.9K)
- Luke Clanton ($8.3K)
- Si Woo Kim ($8K)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($7.7K)
- Charlie Hoffman ($7.2K)
- Gary Woodland ($7.1K)
PGA Tour Fantasy Lineup
Starters: Kitayama (Captain), Woodland, Clanton, Si Woo Kim.
Bench: Hoffman, Fitzpatrick.
Final Predictions
Winning Score: -18
Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama Top-20 (+240)
First-Round Leader Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top-5 after Round 1) at +320.
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